30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Post by John »

30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement


Hong Kong police prepare for election day riots from pro-independence activists


** 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160830



Contents:
Hong Kong's pro-democracy 'Umbrella Movement' is viewed as a failure
Beijing 'thuggery' motivates the rise of the independence movement
Hong Kong debates the independence movement
Hong Kong police prepare for election day riots from pro-independence activists


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Umbrella Movement, Britain,
Edward Leung Tin-kei, Lam Wing-kee

pgang

Re: 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Post by pgang »

Who didn't see this coming in 1997? I never understood why the British were so willing to relinquish the island nation they had created. 99 year lease; for goodness' sake what a joke.

Puyi

Re: 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Post by Puyi »

I've studied Chinese history for almost three decades. Anyone who has will tell you this: China's natural state is long periods of hellish chaos followed by short periods of stability.

The Manchus were let in when Han court officials concluded the Manchus were the only ones left who could stabilize China during a period of total chaos and anarchy in 1644. It worked, at least for a while. Then it broke down and warlords and bandits ran wild. In 1911, the Manchu system collapsed. Decades of hellish civil war and foreign invasion followed.

After tens of millions of deaths, the Communist achieved victory in 1949. China entered another period of stability. And now it is collapsing. China, a multi-ethnic empire, will break apart.

This is the cycle that China follows.

Chinese love to fight Chinese. That's a fact.

Taiwan needs to keep its head down long enough and stay independent long enough for China's collapse.

HK could survive as a city-state, like Singapore.

Shanghai will also become independent because the Shanghainese are the most arrogant people in China.

Southern Manchuria will return to Korea. As the water table in Manchuria is almost completely depleted, no one will want it anymore.

The only hope for China's unity is war with outside powers.

宣統帝

Puyi

Re: 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Post by Puyi »

I would like to add that not all change in China is violent.

The Manchus were allowed to enter China through the Great Wall because Han court officials opened the gates and let them in.

In 1949, the last year of the latest Chinese civil war, most major cities fell with little violence because demoralized Nationalist generals accepted bribes and surrendered.

Hong Kong and Taiwan might just be able to walk away.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Post by John »

Puyi wrote: > The Manchus were let in when Han court officials concluded the
> Manchus were the only ones left who could stabilize China during a
> period of total chaos and anarchy in 1644. It worked, at least for
> a while. Then it broke down and warlords and bandits ran wild. In
> 1911, the Manchu system collapsed. Decades of hellish civil war
> and foreign invasion followed.

> After tens of millions of deaths, the Communist achieved victory
> in 1949. China entered another period of stability. And now it is
> collapsing. China, a multi-ethnic empire, will break apart.

But weren't there also periods of extreme chaos during the Manchu
system -- such as the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805) and the
Taiping Rebellion (1852-1869), killing tens of millions of people?

Puyi

Re: 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Post by Puyi »

John wrote:
But weren't there also periods of extreme chaos during the Manchu
system -- such as the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805) and the
Taiping Rebellion (1852-1869), killing tens of millions of people?
Yes, absolutely! Manchu rule weakened over time. In 1911, the Manchus were finally pushed aside. The Taipings were an example of people's frustration with the corrupt Manchus (as well as, perhaps, a lack marriage possibilities for impoverished males and resentment of 'foreign rule': Manchus are not exactly 'Chinese'.). The Manchus were only able to bring stability for a short time.

How long have the communists been in power? And look at the periodic chaos during their rule (1966-76) when so many revolutionary heroes (and a quite a few villains) were imprisoned, exiled, tortured, and murdered.

China will always be a nation in flux. China is inherently unstable because of its size, geography, and religious and racial differences. I see warlords returning very, very soon.

Guest

Re: 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement

Post by Guest »

I don't expect change in China to be bloodless this time.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 64 guests