23-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily

[John]

23-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily


In an embarrassing turnaround, Russia removes its bombers from Iran

** 23-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160823


Contents:
International Criminal Court gets conviction for 'cultural genocide' in Timbuktu Mali
In an embarrassing turnaround, Russia removes its bombers from Iran
Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Mali, Timbuktu, Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi,
International Criminal Court, ICC, Ansar Dine, Defenders of Faith,
Russia, Iran, Hamadan airbase, Hossein Dehghan, Hossein Ruyvaran,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Mevlut Cavusoglu

[gfmucci]

"This ties into some analysis that I've done in the past regarding whether Iran would use a nuclear weapon on Israel. If you look at Iran's history in the last century, including its two generational crisis wars, the Constitutional Revolution of the 1900s decade and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, combined with statements that they've made, you see that they take pride in never attacking anyone else, except in self-defense. Thus, I consider it almost impossible for Iran to preemptively use a nuclear weapon on Israel, unless Israel attacked first."

We should not trust the above analysis and conclusion any further than we can throw it. This analysis IGNORES the last couple of decades of Iran's supremacist Islamic government and their continued threats to wipe Israel off the map. "Generational Dynamics" has a blind spot to the resurgent fundamentalist orthodox Islamic supremacist mindset that has washed over the Islamic world since the Ayatollah. The Iranian threat to Israel and the US is real. We need to take them at their word and as well as the core of the Islamic doctrine that guides their policy - destroy Jews; destroy the infidel. That is Iran's foreign policy which has little to do with Iran's former policy that previously existed under a more secular governance but exists no more.

[John]

> "This ties into some analysis that I've done in the past regarding
> whether Iran would use a nuclear weapon on Israel. If you look at
> Iran's history in the last century, including its two generational
> crisis wars, the Constitutional Revolution of the 1900s decade and
> the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, combined with statements that
> they've made, you see that they take pride in never attacking
> anyone else, except in self-defense. Thus, I consider it almost
> impossible for Iran to preemptively use a nuclear weapon on
> Israel, unless Israel attacked first."

> We should not trust the above analysis and conclusion any further
> than we can throw it. This analysis IGNORES the last couple of
> decades of Iran's supremacist Islamic government and their
> continued threats to wipe Israel off the map. "Generational
> Dynamics" has a blind spot to the resurgent fundamentalist
> orthodox Islamic supremacist mindset that has washed over the
> Islamic world since the Ayatollah. The Iranian threat to Israel
> and the US is real. We need to take them at their word and as
> well as the core of the Islamic doctrine that guides their policy
> - destroy Jews; destroy the infidel. That is Iran's foreign
> policy which has little to do with Iran's former policy that
> previously existed under a more secular governance but exists no
> more.

I've written about this many times. I would suggest that you have a
blind spot, when you're confusing words with actions. Those threats
are directed at a domestic audience, in order to attempt to reunify
the country in the same way that anti-American rhetoric unified the
country in 1979 against the Shah. However, that was a generational
Crisis era, while now Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and the
same tactics don't work. But that only makes the hardline geezers
double down on the rhetoric. But rhetoric and actions are two
different things.

** 9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151109

[Cannibal]

How would explain the aggression against the US Navy in the Persian Gulf by the Iranian Navy? Why is Iranian bothering the US Nav

Your GenDyn theory was moving along just fine until the Americans threw in with the Turks and Iran started becoming more aggressive against the US. Could it be time to re-evaluate some of it? I'm not saying you are wrong entirely, maybe you've got it mostly right. Could this mean a decision has been made to support the Sunnis?