21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue / Fears grow of major uprising in Indian-governe

[John]

21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue


Fears grow of major uprising in Indian-governed Kashmir

** 21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160721



Contents:
Tensions rising between Pakistan and India over Kashmir issue
Mastermind of 2008 Mumbai attack leads Pakistan protests against India


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Nawaz Sharif, MJ Akbar,
Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Multan, Hafiz Saeed,
Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Mumbai

[Guest]

Sir,

Would a war between Pakistan and India have to go nuclear? Couldn't there be another Kargil War type clash?

Thank you for your analysis.

[John]

> Sir, Would a war between Pakistan and India have to go nuclear?
> Couldn't there be another Kargil War type clash? Thank you for
> your analysis.

Pakistan has taken the position that it needs nuclear weapons to
offset India's larger army. A possible scenario is that a war would
begin as a ground war, but at some point one side or the other
(probably Pakistan) would use a tactical nuclear weapon.

The Kargil war occurred during a generational Unraveling era, when the
last of the survivors of the previous crisis war are still in power,
and they are strongly committed to avoiding war. Today, in a
generational Crisis era, those people are all gone, and the younger
generations are highly nationalistic and xenophobic, and will use
almost any excuse to go to war, even nuclear war.

[Jack Edwards]

Guest said:
Would a war between Pakistan and India have to go nuclear?

I read something the other day. Basically, someone was asked what the chances of a country using a nuclear bomb in a war were. They answered (paraphrasing) "very low, but once one country uses one, the chance that another is used goes up dramatically". Or in other words, right now the use of nuclear weapons is taboo, but once someone breaks the taboo - it will become down right fashionable.

So my guess based on nothing but opinion is that if war broke out between India and Pakistan tomorrow that nukes would not be used. BUT if a year from now, China (or somebody else) has used nukes in the China Seas dispute, that a war between India and Pakistan would quickly come to nukes. And the sad thing is, the first nation to use nukes - if they go all in, probably has the best chance of surviving. A very dark future. hope I'm wrong.

Jack

[Tom Mazanec]

I had a friend, formerly in military intelligence, named Ed Langley, whom I met in Play By Mail Games. He died just after 9-11. He had good strategic insights, and we talked a lot about geopolitics. His expectation was that there would be a use of nuclear weapons at some point (and most likely in South Asia) but it would be so horrible (shown worldwide on high definition color television) that nukes would not be used again in this century.

[John]

> I had a friend, formerly in military intelligence, named Ed
> Langley, whom I met in Play By Mail Games. He died just after
> 9-11. He had good strategic insights, and we talked a lot about
> geopolitics. His expectation was that there would be a use of
> nuclear weapons at some point (and most likely in South Asia) but
> it would be so horrible (shown worldwide on high definition color
> television) that nukes would not be used again in this
> century.

Unfortunately, that's not how generational crisis wars work.

[Tom Mazanec]

Well, he sometimes admitted China might get pulled into such a war, at least.
I suppose we will all know in a decade or two.