7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
Posts: 9167
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Postby John » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:00 pm

7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war


Kenya facing fierce criticism over closing the world's largest refugee camp

** 7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e160607.htm#e160607



Contents:
Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war
Generational history of tribal violence in Kenya
Kenya facing fierce criticism over closing the world's largest refugee camp


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Kisumu, Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin,
Kisii, Kikuyu, Embu, Meru, GEMA, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga,
Mau-Mau Rebellion, Dadaab refugee camp, Somali, Black Hawk Down,
Mogadishu, al-Shabaab

jmm1184
Posts: 114
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:02 pm

Re: 7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Postby jmm1184 » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:54 am

Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war


John, do you know when exactly the preceding crisis wars before the Mau Mau Rebellion were fought? I did some very quick research and it would appear that most of the wars were fought in the inland highlands. The Kikuyu were conquered by the British in 1895 but from my reading brutal fighting with both the British and traditional enemies, particularly the pastoralist Masai, continued until 1920, though I am not certain that 1920 was the crisis war climax.

However, a different tribe, the Nandi, who also lived in the inland highlands fought a fierce resistance war against the British until 1905, when their leader was murdered by the British.


Also, in your article you talked about the precise year a crisis era begins, and you also mentioned the age of the cut-off between the survivors of the crisis war and the incoming prophets. I know you and I have talked about this issue before, but could you elaborate on your views of generation lengths? Strauss and Howe gave great importance to cohort boundaries between generations, and it seems like it would be important and beneficial is generational dynamics also at least had approximate timeframes for cohort boundaries.

In my own research and theorizing, I've come up with these boundaries.

Prophet or as I call them, Visionary Generation: oldest are age 3 or 4 at the crisis war climax.

Nomad or as I call them, Nihilist Generation: oldest are born in year a society enters an awakening, that is 15 years after the crisis war climax.

Heroes or as I call them, Civic Generation before the crisis war and Heroes or the Heroic Generation after the crisis war: oldest are born 36 to 37 years after the crisis war climax, that is when the first Prophets/Visionaries reach 40 years of age.

Artists or as I call them, Emulating Generation: oldest are 19 years old at the crisis war climax. This may be flexible as it may depend on when a society considers someone to have become an adult. My rule of them for the dividing line between Heroes and Artists/Emulators is that the last cohort of the Heroic Generation enters adulthood during the crisis war climax.

John
Posts: 9167
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Postby John » Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:36 pm

I haven't researched any of Kenya's previous crisis wars, and I don't
believe that Matt Ignal posted any research either.

Here's a table of inter-crisis periods that I first posted over ten
years ago and have posted many times since then. It shows the number
of years past the end of the previous crisis war that the new crisis
war starts, and it's based on an analysis of crisis war dates that I
did in 2002, when I was trying to figure out if generational theory
had any validity at all:

Code: Select all

.
>   LENGTH OF INTER-CRISIS PERIOD
>            Fraction
>   # years  of total  Turning
>   -------  --------  ------------------
>     0- 40      0%    1T, 2T
>    41- 49     11%    first half of 3T
>    50- 59     33%    second half of 3T
>    60- 69     25%    first half of 4T
>    70- 79     16%    second half of 4T
>    80- 89      4%    fifth turning
>    90- 99      6%
>   100-117      5%

Jack Edwards
Posts: 84
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 1:47 pm

Re: 7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Postby Jack Edwards » Thu Jun 09, 2016 3:29 pm

Just for clarity, one starts measuring from the conclusion of the previous Crisis war, correct? So for instance the timeline for the US started at the conclusion of World War II in 1945?

Thanks.
Jack

John
Posts: 9167
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Postby John » Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:57 pm

Jack Edwards wrote:> Just for clarity, one starts measuring from the conclusion of the
> previous Crisis war, correct? So for instance the timeline for
> the US started at the conclusion of World War II in 1945?


Specifically, one starts measuring from the climax of the war, the
explosive point of maximally genocidal events (e.g., nuking
Hiroshima). Sometimes the war continues for a while after that.

jmm1184
Posts: 114
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:02 pm

Re: 7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Postby jmm1184 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 8:57 am

Specifically, one starts measuring from the climax of the war, the
explosive point of maximally genocidal events (e.g., nuking
Hiroshima). Sometimes the war continues for a while after that.


I've noticed that the war continuing past the climax of the war is not that uncommon. The Spanish Armada Crisis War climaxed in 1588, but war with Spain continued until 1603, all the way through the recovery era and ending as the awakening era began.

The War of the Spanish Succession also took a few years to officially conclude after the battle of Malplaquet (five years to conclusion, 1709-1714), though I suspect that the climax of that war for France and some of the German states was actually in 1712 with the battle of Denain.

Even the revolutionary war took a couple of years to officially conclude after the climax at the battle of Yorktown in 1781.


So why do you think wars don't always conclude immediately after the climax? In theory you'd think that the climax would be enough to shock both parties into a ceasefire and peace negotiations, but this is clearly not always the case. So why do you think active war can continue after the climax?(albeit in a non-crisis war mode of fighting)

John
Posts: 9167
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 7-Jun-16 World View -- Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war

Postby John » Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:04 pm

> Specifically, one starts measuring from the climax of the war, the
> explosive point of maximally genocidal events (e.g., nuking
> Hiroshima). Sometimes the war continues for a while after
> that.


jmm1184 wrote:> I've noticed that the war continuing past the climax of the war is
> not that uncommon. The Spanish Armada Crisis War climaxed in 1588,
> but war with Spain continued until 1603, all the way through the
> recovery era and ending as the awakening era began.

> The War of the Spanish Succession also took a few years to
> officially conclude after the battle of Malplaquet (five years to
> conclusion, 1709-1714), though I suspect that the climax of that
> war for France and some of the German states was actually in 1712
> with the battle of Denain.

> Even the revolutionary war took a couple of years to officially
> conclude after the climax at the battle of Yorktown in 1781.

> So why do you think wars don't always conclude immediately after
> the climax? In theory you'd think that the climax would be enough
> to shock both parties into a ceasefire and peace negotiations, but
> this is clearly not always the case. So why do you think active
> war can continue after the climax?(albeit in a non-crisis war mode
> of fighting)



There are lots of reasons. There might be multiple theatres, as in
World War II. Or if it's an organic war between two ethnic groups, it
may take several months to sink in what happened, and some splinter
groups may not accept what happened for years.


Return to “Weblog News Comments and Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests