31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

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John
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31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Postby John » Mon May 30, 2016 8:21 pm

31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Thousands of refugees leave Libya for Italy, hundreds drown

** 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e160531.htm#e160531



Contents:
Thousands of refugees leave Libya for Italy, hundreds drown
Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control
Population growth rate of Muslims and Christians


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Libya, Mediterranean Sea, Italy,
Aegean Sea, Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ottoman Empire, Iran, Russia

JULLIEN1

Re: 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Postby JULLIEN1 » Tue May 31, 2016 5:03 pm

Dear John,

I have a suggestion about demographics of Turkey and Erdogan's call to procreate more: he's in fact worrying about the future of Turkey as an unified nation-state.
If you look at Turkey as a whole, things seem good: the TFR (Total Fertility Rate or the mean number of children by women between 15 and 45) is 2.14, a little above the replacement fertility rate. However, a closer look reveals a huge difference between Western Turkey which has sub-replacement fertility rates like in Europe and Eastern Turkey which is far above the replacement fertility rate. To put it in other words, the "Turkish Turkey" is not bearing enough children (at current rates) while all provinces of the "non-Turkish Turkey" (meaning the one with a Kurdish majority) have TFR superior to 3.0 children by woman. Currently, Kurds represent less than 25% of the population of Turkey; logically they should become more than 30%, perhaps more 35% of that population in the next decades.
At a time when a de facto Kurdish nation-state is ruling northern Iraq while another one is becoming viable in northern Syria, at a time where Turkish/Northern Kurdistan is once again subject to political violence with a separatist movement agitating against the Turkish state, Erdogan is in fact probably worrying about a possible collapse of Turkey and Kurdish independence.

John
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Re: 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Postby John » Tue May 31, 2016 11:19 pm

Jullien - Thanks for that analysis. It makes a lot of sense, and it
even provides some support for my theory that it all has to do with
restoring the Ottoman Empire.

Guest

Re: 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Postby Guest » Wed Jun 01, 2016 6:03 am

Who do you see Albania going along with in the upcoming war? Albanians are overwhelmingly pro-America, but 2/3 (nominally) Muslim. The current Albanian PM is Catholic (but secular).

John
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Re: 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Postby John » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:52 am

Guest wrote:> Who do you see Albania going along with in the upcoming war?
> Albanians are overwhelmingly pro-America, but 2/3 (nominally)
> Muslim. The current Albanian PM is Catholic (but secular).


I've never researched what's happening in Albania. But if you're
right that Albanians are overwhelmingly pro-America, then it would be
fairly certain that Albania would side with the West.

guest

Re: 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Postby guest » Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:03 am

John wrote:
Guest wrote:> Who do you see Albania going along with in the upcoming war?
> Albanians are overwhelmingly pro-America, but 2/3 (nominally)
> Muslim. The current Albanian PM is Catholic (but secular).


I've never researched what's happening in Albania. But if you're
right that Albanians are overwhelmingly pro-America, then it would be
fairly certain that Albania would side with the West.


So can political/societal loyalty trump religion in Gen-Dynamics?

Yeah, Albanians love America. The pro-American feelings are palpable on the streets of any town or village in Albania.

John
Posts: 8713
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

Postby John » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:53 pm

guest wrote:> So can political/societal loyalty trump religion in Gen-Dynamics?

> Yeah, Albanians love America. The pro-American feelings are
> palpable on the streets of any town or village in Albania.


Religion is only one of the factors that cause identity groups
to form. Things like ethnicity, skin color, geography, and
even political affiliation can do it.

The most powerful is ethnicity because it can't be changed. A person
can change his religion, and a religion itself can change by
splintering to form factions, but a person's ethnicity can't change,
and the identity of an ethnic group cannot change.

So you have Sunni ethnic Turks fighting Sunni Kurds. In 1994 Rwanda,
both the Tutsis and Hutus were Catholic. In the Iran/Iraq war, ethnic
Arab Iraqis, both Sunnis and Shias, fought Persian Shias. In WW II,
American Germans were loyal to America, not to the Nazis, so geography
overrode ethnicity in that case.


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