19-May-16 World View -- Chinese official slams Hong Kong independence during 'inspection visit'

[John]

19-May-16 World View -- Chinese official slams Hong Kong independence during 'inspection visit'

Hong Kong's history and culture make it very different from China


** 19-May-16 World View -- Chinese official slams Hong Kong independence during 'inspection visit'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160519



Contents:
Chinese official slams Hong Kong independence during 'inspection visit'
Hong Kong's history and culture make it very different from China


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, China, Zhang Dejiang,
Leung Chun-ying, Formosa, Taiwan, Mao Zedong, Chiang Kai-shek,
Mandarin, Cantonese, Min Nan, Hakka

[Trevor]

I can't help but ask: what about India and Russia? Considering what the fault lines are supposed to be and the fact that both of them have a substantial Muslim minority (and a long history of fighting them), would there be civil conflict within those countries as well?

I remember the conversation I read a few days ago about the refugee agreement that the EU and Turkey currently have. The agreement is looking rather fragile right now, and it could easily fall apart in the future, with millions more refugees pouring in.

Crazy as this must sound, we could end up being one of the only major combatants NOT dealing with a civil conflict as well.

[jmm1184]

I can't help but ask: what about India and Russia? Considering what the fault lines are supposed to be and the fact that both of them have a substantial Muslim minority (and a long history of fighting them), would there be civil conflict within those countries as well?

I remember the conversation I read a few days ago about the refugee agreement that the EU and Turkey currently have. The agreement is looking rather fragile right now, and it could easily fall apart in the future, with millions more refugees pouring in.

Crazy as this must sound, we could end up being one of the only major combatants NOT dealing with a civil conflict as well.

The continent of Eurasia will be completely devastated in the coming Clash of Civilizations war, it will make parts of Africa more desirable to live in than itself at the time.

China will soon realize its taken on more than it can chew and will be fighting for its life as it fights an external war in the Pacific with Japan, the United States, the Philippines, and Vietnam, with Cambodia as its only ally in that fight. It will be facing the Russians to the north and the Indians to the south, and then there's the strong likelihood of a new rebellion/revolution within China as well, so basically China will descend into chaos.

That said, India will also be fighting for its life against Pakistan, and so India may not be as potent a threat against China since most of its resources will be directed against Pakistan AND any Muslims living within India.

Russia has already stuck its nose into the Middle East and will put most of its resources to fighting terrorism within Russia and fighting Muslim countries in the Middle East, as well as trying to keep China out of Siberia.

The Middle East is already descending into Chaos, we are just waiting for Saudi Arabia and Turkey to fully enter the fray, which will compel Iran to enter in as well. Egypt is a bit of a wild card as to whose side it will take, but either way it will be pulled into the war as well, along with the other north African nations. Israel and Palestine will also go to war with each other, and in my opinion its highly unlikely that Israel will survive. Numerically it would take an impossible miracle and massive intervention from allies to save them (and even that would probably not be enough).

Europe is already poised to experience internal conflict with frequent terrorist attacks and mob violence as incoming immigrants fight against native Europeans (DISCLAIMER: because I know this is politically insensitive I am not saying this to demonize Muslims as a whole or to ignore the real humanitarian plight of the refugees). But quite frankly the Visigoths, who if you have any French or Spanish heritage are your ancestors, also were real refugees fleeing horrible marauding armies of Huns, and yet they still ravaged through the empire and ultimately sacked Rome.

I have actually grown more cautiously optimistic about how the United States will fair in the coming war. China's military capability is quickly catching up to ours, especially since the United States is stupidly decreasing its military capacity while China is increasing it. That said, China will be surrounded by hostile forces, while the United States has a host of allies that will support it in the Pacific especially. The United States is also still the number one military in the world, as well as the top economy. For all of our problems at home, we are still the most powerful and most wealthy nation in the world. We also have no internal fault-lines, with the exception of Hispanics vs. whites in the southwest. With all the talk of souring race relations, historically blacks and whites have joined together during crisis wars, especially if fighting against a common foe.

The one possible wildcard is Mexico, as it is very deep into a crisis era and could explode any day now, if you don't count the drug wars as the beginnings of a new crisis war. This crisis war could/will spill over into the United States, but the actual Mexican government is not particularly anti-American and would probably side with us in a war against China.

All this to say, all of the Eurasian participants will be experiencing internal turmoil and external war at the same time, leaving the entire continent devastated when its over. The United States will be devastated as well, but it won't experience an internal civil war and will be protected by its two oceans, and unless our leadership completely bungles the war effort (which sadly is not an impossibility), we will most likely emerge victorious, though at unimaginable cost.

[John]

That's a really great analysis. Well done!

There's one concept I'd like to throw into the mix. There's an
assumption that India will be fighting the Muslims who live in India.
I'd like to challenge that assumption.

There's a clear fault line between ethnic Russians and North
Caucasians in Russia, and that fault line has already extended to
Moscow and across Russia into Central Asia. So Russia's Muslims will
almost certainly be fighting the Russians.

But I don't see the same kind of fault line in India. Even in
Kashmir/Jammu, where India's army is fighting Muslim terrorists all
the time, those terrorists are all crossing the line of control from
Pakistan, and are not native to Kashmir, as far as I can tell. In
other words, I get the impression that Muslims living in India are
pro-India rather than pro-Pakistan.

During WW II, Germans living in America were pro-America, not
pro-Nazi. Even the Japanese, who were locked up in internment camps,
have always insisted that they were pro-American.

[jmm1184]

That's a good point, especially since any muslims that live in India now are descended from those Muslims who chose to stay in Hindu majority areas during partition, indicating a willingness to support the Indian state.

John, where do you suppose Egypt will fall in the clash of civilizations war? They are a Sunni Muslim country, yet they have allied with Israel against Palestine in recent years, and they have no love for Bedouins or it seems for the Saudis. Could Egypt be an exception where they fight alongside the West and Israel against the Saudis, Palestinians, and Turkey?

[Trevor]

Europe is already poised to experience internal conflict with frequent terrorist attacks and mob violence as incoming immigrants fight against native Europeans (DISCLAIMER: because I know this is politically insensitive I am not saying this to demonize Muslims as a whole or to ignore the real humanitarian plight of the refugees). But quite frankly the Visigoths, who if you have any French or Spanish heritage are your ancestors, also were real refugees fleeing horrible marauding armies of Huns, and yet they still ravaged through the empire and ultimately sacked Rome.

I have actually grown more cautiously optimistic about how the United States will fair in the coming war. China's military capability is quickly catching up to ours, especially since the United States is stupidly decreasing its military capacity while China is increasing it. That said, China will be surrounded by hostile forces, while the United States has a host of allies that will support it in the Pacific especially. The United States is also still the number one military in the world, as well as the top economy. For all of our problems at home, we are still the most powerful and most wealthy nation in the world. We also have no internal fault-lines, with the exception of Hispanics vs. whites in the southwest. With all the talk of souring race relations, historically blacks and whites have joined together during crisis wars, especially if fighting against a common foe.

I'm still kind of expecting the deal between Turkey and the EU to end up falling apart at some point in time, especially if they do not provide money (which many Europeans are against)

One other thing I wanted to add when it came to China's constant threats. Back in the 1930's, Hitler did not threaten Britain and France with war. He merely threatened to "retaliate" if they attacked him. It helped keep them from doing anything significant.

When I was younger, I always wondered in my history classes how the world could have been so blind to Germany and Japan. Why did they refuse to take action, refuse to prepare even when war was staring them right in the face? I think I might be getting smarter with age, because I understand it now. I've talked to some people about the issue, and it seems to be almost willful blindness. A U.S.-China war is horrifying to think about, so they don't.

[gerald]

Europe is already poised to experience internal conflict with frequent terrorist attacks and mob violence as incoming immigrants fight against native Europeans (DISCLAIMER: because I know this is politically insensitive I am not saying this to demonize Muslims as a whole or to ignore the real humanitarian plight of the refugees). But quite frankly the Visigoths, who if you have any French or Spanish heritage are your ancestors, also were real refugees fleeing horrible marauding armies of Huns, and yet they still ravaged through the empire and ultimately sacked Rome.

I have actually grown more cautiously optimistic about how the United States will fair in the coming war. China's military capability is quickly catching up to ours, especially since the United States is stupidly decreasing its military capacity while China is increasing it. That said, China will be surrounded by hostile forces, while the United States has a host of allies that will support it in the Pacific especially. The United States is also still the number one military in the world, as well as the top economy. For all of our problems at home, we are still the most powerful and most wealthy nation in the world. We also have no internal fault-lines, with the exception of Hispanics vs. whites in the southwest. With all the talk of souring race relations, historically blacks and whites have joined together during crisis wars, especially if fighting against a common foe.

I'm still kind of expecting the deal between Turkey and the EU to end up falling apart at some point in time, especially if they do not provide money (which many Europeans are against)

One other thing I wanted to add when it came to China's constant threats. Back in the 1930's, Hitler did not threaten Britain and France with war. He merely threatened to "retaliate" if they attacked him. It helped keep them from doing anything significant.

When I was younger, I always wondered in my history classes how the world could have been so blind to Germany and Japan. Why did they refuse to take action, refuse to prepare even when war was staring them right in the face? I think I might be getting smarter with age, because I understand it now. I've talked to some people about the issue, and it seems to be almost willful blindness. A U.S.-China war is horrifying to think about, so they don't.

Can't call a spade a spade -- wrong thinking --https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Call_a_spade_a_spade

[WorldMan1]

Very interesting discussion. I would say that the US needs to make sure we become closer to India so that Americans can fully take advantage of the alliance in the coming war. I don't want them to become the US next rivals.

John quick typo, Hong Kong was governed by the British 1997 not 1977. I know what you meant.

[John]

Thanks for the correction.

[jldavid47]

John,

I think Maduro & Co. in Venezuela is right up there with the Chinese communists as the most paranoid organization in the world right now.