30-May-10 The rise of left-wing violence around the world

[John]

The analog to Bush's remarks about Putin would be the recent "reset" with Russia.

John

[Oakwood]

John, the analog to your answers to simple questions I pose to you would be the Bush Administration's opinions about torture: waterboarding is not torture.

[at99sy]

Oakwood
I am certain that your intellect is superior to mine, however I cannot help but find myself having reached a point that is somewhere to the left of boredom yet not quite at the point of annoyance. I encourage differing points of view and frequently gain much from those discussions. Yet much what I see from many of your posts are not so much a point of discussion but an argument. I try to teach my 9th graders that there is a not so subtle difference between discussions, debates and arguments. I think what John has been very successful in creating with his forum, is to provide a very friendly and inclusive platform for discussion. I have found myself disagreeing with his ideas and statements from time to time and generally keep it to myself, yet I do my own research in an attempt to clarify my position and personal thoughts on the topic/s. Not infrequently, I discover that I will change my mind on said topics. I welcome your input where it will add to the quality of the discussion, but please discontinue the argumentative nature of many of your posts. Bash me, trash me do what you will.......
Just please do not bore me. It quickly becomes tiresome and takes up our time when reading new posts. I suppose I could ignore them but I enjoy the search for information too much to risk losing potential "gems" of insight that may be lurking in the shadows.
One of the first things I was told as a new teacher was "do not be a bore."
So lets leave the bores in D.C. and in the MSM shall we?
SY

[Higgenbotham]

Oakwood
I am certain that your intellect is superior to mine, however I cannot help but find myself having reached a point that is somewhere to the left of boredom yet not quite at the point of annoyance. I encourage differing points of view and frequently gain much from those discussions. Yet much what I see from many of your posts are not so much a point of discussion but an argument. I try to teach my 9th graders that there is a not so subtle difference between discussions, debates and arguments. I think what John has been very successful in creating with his forum, is to provide a very friendly and inclusive platform for discussion. I have found myself disagreeing with his ideas and statements from time to time and generally keep it to myself, yet I do my own research in an attempt to clarify my position and personal thoughts on the topic/s. Not infrequently, I discover that I will change my mind on said topics. I welcome your input where it will add to the quality of the discussion, but please discontinue the argumentative nature of many of your posts. Bash me, trash me do what you will.......
Just please do not bore me. It quickly becomes tiresome and takes up our time when reading new posts. I suppose I could ignore them but I enjoy the search for information too much to risk losing potential "gems" of insight that may be lurking in the shadows.
One of the first things I was told as a new teacher was "do not be a bore."
So lets leave the bores in D.C. and in the MSM shall we?
SY

I agree with most of what is being said in this post. I've probably forgotten some of what was posted early on, but have read it all.

Oakwood's initial comments about John's forecasting record, which I happen to agree with for the most part were, well, I guess "boring" is a good way to describe them. It's just more to scroll through. Who cares? Who has a perfect forecasting record? Certainly not Gerald Celente, who I have been reading for years. Certainly not me either. Most of us don't come here to evaluate anyone's forecasting record. We come here to pick up original ideas that we can't find anywhere else (and which this forum is a great source of) and to try to do the best we can with our own forecasts.

Next came the discussion of gold. My thought upon reading that was that it was the same old warmed over bullshit that is served up thousands of other places on the Internet, almost verbatim. In fact, a few quotes were copied and pasted into a post, the kind of stuff I've read thousands of times before. Think we're not aware of these arguments? Think again. I've been in the gold and silver markets since the lows as have many others here. When an item has risen 4 or 5 fold from the lows, it might make sense to get the bearish viewpoint and start looking for the door. There aren't many places to get that nowadays. I appreciated Richard's post on that subject.

As far as aeden's posts, I can understand him well enough and the links he posts are well worth reading.

[Oakwood]

Higgenbotham wrote: Oakwood's initial comments about John's forecasting record, which I happen to agree with for the most part were, well, I guess "boring"...Who cares? Who has a perfect forecasting record? Certainly not Gerald Celente, who I have been reading for years... Most of us don't come here to evaluate anyone's forecasting record. We come here to pick up original ideas that we can't find anywhere else (and which this forum is a great source of) and to try to do the best we can with our own forecasts....Next came the discussion of gold. My thought upon reading that was that it was the same old warmed over bullshit...

To you and att99sy, thank you for your honesty. It's nice to get criticism with substance, in contrast to being called an imbecile or a left loon (let alone by the webmaster!). I apologize for my boringness and I will try to be briefer. I got on John's case about his predictive ability because of his outrageous claims of having the best website in the world, etc. He continues to claim 100% accuracy (it's not me, it's GD), and recently skewered someone who suggested that he might not always be right. There's a part of me that loves to poke holes in authoritarian buffoonery. (I have yet to see John admit to making a mistake, but then we all have our faults...) Okay, enough is enough...

As for gold, I guess that again stems from John's insistence that gold is fairly valued at $500, while I believe it's the safest place to put your money. I agree I have nothing original to say about it and didn't realize the topic was so well-covered here. Sorry.

As for Celente, my over-the-top praise was meant to be tongue-in-cheek, but what significant predictions has he gotten wrong?

[Higgenbotham]

As for Celente, my over-the-top praise was meant to be tongue-in-cheek, but what significant predictions has he gotten wrong?

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Celente.html

Going back to early 2009 (this broadcast is from January 2009), he was saying the following: The Panic of '08 will be followed by the Collapse of '09. The Collapse of '09 will be worse than the Panic of '08. The Collapse of '09 will begin in late February or early March of '09. There is nothing that can stop it (referring to government intervention). One reason the Collapse of '09 will be worse is that the commercial real estate market will collapse and it is more highly leveraged than the residential real estate market.

To the best of my recollection, another interview (it may have been on Alex Jones' show) predicted a bank holiday soon after Obama entered office.

Having written the above, I don't want to focus on this type of thing with regard to this forecaster. He provides a lot of interesting and informative commentary and forecasts, as does this site, and he lays it on the line with specific dates and forecasts. Also, anyone who has been reading this forum knows that I (and many of us) were guessing there would be a similar outcome last year. I was thinking there would be a weak rebound that would end in August, followed by a second crash.

[burt]

Hi John,

It has occurred to me that the BP oil spill may turn out to be the economic equivalent of the dustbowl of The Great Depression. When I first had the thought I wanted to dismiss it as a stretch but then I thought about it for awhile and I realized that both where not just natural disasters but were caused by people who became complacent and failed to take reasonable precautions, mainly because of GD at work.

Your opinion?
/

Interesting, + I just want to add a correlation with Tchernobyl (also bad engineers at the wrong places):
1986: 67 years after 1919 (end of crisis war in Russia)
2010: 65 years after 1945 (end of crisis war in the US)

John, what do you think of these 2 remarks. By the way, Tchernobyl was the last important accident in the nuclear power industry, and at that time (1986), may people thought it was only the beginning, any possible relation with oil??.



Burt

?By the way, why does this post appears here? it was posted on june the 4th, no?

[OLD1953]

I've always said, the day I find a silver/gold site that can seriously discuss the gold/silver ratio, I'll pay attention to it. Any individual or site or book that discusses this ratio historically and does NOT mention the Comstock Lode is just being ridiculous. I've yet to see that discussion on the internet anywhere, save the few times I've brought it up in various fora. It's barely mentioned even on silver coin sites, unless you closely read statements relating to the coinage acts of the late 1880's, and early 1900's.

You can find mentions of it on history sites, but not as relating to investment. But the single most important event affecting the silver/gold ratio since the founding of the US was the discovery of silver in Nevada and the far western US.

And that's why I don't listen much to the gold hawks. If they can discuss a commodity ratio historically and leave out the single most important event in modern times, what good are they?

[Oakwood]

OLD1953: Please explain about the Comstock Lode and the gold-silver ratio and its relevance to today. Thanks.

[vincecate]

Hi John,
Interesting, + I just want to add a correlation with Tchernobyl (also bad engineers at the wrong places):
1986: 67 years after 1919 (end of crisis war in Russia)
2010: 65 years after 1945 (end of crisis war in the US)

In a particular engineering field, say bridge design, there seems to be a 30 something year cycle:
http://discovermagazine.com/2007/aug/ma ... e-collapse

In US currency there also seems to be a 33 to 39 year crisis cycle.
http://pair.offshore.ai/38yearcycle/#cycle

Several interesting cycles:
http://pair.offshore.ai/38yearcycle/#related