23-Apr-16 World View -- 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement / S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets

[John]

23-Apr-16 World View -- 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets to highest value in years

** 23-Apr-16 World View -- 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160423


Contents:
175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement
The 'science' of climate change
President Obama threatens Britain over 'Brexit' referendum
Report: China to build floating nuclear power plants in South China Sea
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets to highest value in years


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, climate change, John Kerry, Leonardo DiCaprio,
Saudi Arabia, Britain, Brexit, China, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio

[Uber]

"It may or may not be "science" that humans caused climate change, but the science stops there. In particular, "science" has no idea what's going to happen in the future, especially with the approach of the Singularity, which so-called "climate change scientists" are scared to death to even mention, because it completely invalidates their theory."

I'm not sure whether or not this comment was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek, but I do appreciate the wonderful irony. Future climate catastrophe - not science because science can't predict the future. Future singularity, definitely real and predictable, and frightening to scientists. Nice volte-face!

[John]

> "It may or may not be "science" that humans caused climate change,
> but the science stops there. In particular, "science" has no idea
> what's going to happen in the future, especially with the approach
> of the Singularity, which so-called "climate change scientists"
> are scared to death to even mention, because it completely
> invalidates their theory."

> I'm not sure whether or not this comment was supposed to be
> tongue-in-cheek, but I do appreciate the wonderful irony. Future
> climate catastrophe - not science because science can't predict
> the future. Future singularity, definitely real and predictable,
> and frightening to scientists. Nice volte-face!

You make a good point that it needs to be better explained why the
Singularity is coming, but the future of climate change cannot be
predicted. In fact, there's a third probability involved, the
probability of world war.

The problem with the climate change prediction is that it's embedded
in a sewer full of ideology. Let's suppose you can be certain that
human activity causes climate change, and that human activity will
cause further climate change. There's absolutely no science that says
you can change human activity to prevent climate change, and yet
that's what these politicians claim they can do. In fact, politicians
can neither cause nor prevent human activity that causes climate
change.

The same is true of the Singularity and world war. Each of these is
coming with certainty, and there's no way for any politician to cause
or prevent either of them. So in that sense, all three predictions
are parallel.

The difference is that politicians are using one of these three --
climate change -- to extort money and political power.

The Obama administration has threatened to prosecute "climate change
deniers" criminally. There's no parallel to that for the other two.

And as I said, the "scientists" refuse to even mention the word
"Singularity," since it makes all their future predictions -- and all
their calls for more money -- worthless.

So somehow these facts all have to be sorted out into a better
explanation of what's going on.

Incidentally, attitudes towards the Singularity have changed in the
10+ years I've been writing about it. Ten years ago, almost everyone
considered it a fantasy, although many people found the 2004 movie "I
Robot" intriguing.

** (July 2004) I, Robot is science fiction, but intelligent computers will soon be science fact.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 040709.htm

But today when I talk to other software engineers, rarely does anyone
express any doubt that the singularity is coming.

I still sometimes hear the argument, "We have to understand the human
brain before computers can be intelligent, and that will take
centuries," but only from non-technical people. Software engineers
know that that argument is nonsense.

Another argument I sometimes hear is that the human brain will meld in
some way with computer intelligence. Ray Kurzweil has popularized one
version of that theory. I personally consider it to be fantasy, but
even if true it doesn't change the fact that the Singularity is
coming.

And of course, some people question the dates. My prediction is 2030,
but others come in anywhere from 2025 to 2060. At any rate, it's
pretty certain that intelligent computers will be used in warfare by
the early 2020s.

Which brings us back to the main point that the Singularity and world
war are coming with certainty, but so-called "scientists" refuse to
even discuss those concepts because they would lose money and
political power in doing so.

[Reality Based]

I still find the Singularity to be far fetched. A computer that has a lot of pre-programmed responses is one thing, sentient life is another. A box of silicon and metal bits that actually thinks on its own? No way.

There are Internet dating sites that have fake webcam models that respond to converstation amazingly well. These sites are just clever scams to get lonely sad sacks to send money to imaginary girlfriends. As life like as they supposedly are, they are still just computer programs.

You are buying into what one futurist calls "techno-narcissism". The world is more likely to resemble medieval Europe in 10 years, not TRON.

[John]

> A computer that has a lot of pre-programmed responses is one
> thing, sentient life is another.

This argument has been blown out of the water by two recent
developments -- the Watson victory as world champion at Jeopardy!, and
the AlphaGo victory as world champion at Go.

** 19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e110219

** 28-Jan-16 World View -- China's game of Go beaten by Google's AI software, bringing the Singularity closer
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160128

In both of these cases, there were NO pre-programmed responses. The
computers had to use human-like reasoning to win their victories.

In both of these examples, the domains are extremely limited --
Jeopardy! questions and Go, respectively. That's because no computer,
even supercomputers, is powerful enough yet to take on ALL domains
simultaneously. But with computer size and power doubling every 18
years, it won't be long (2030 in my estimate) before a single computer
will be smarter than a human in all domains.

Incidentally, be careful with those internet dating sites. It won't
be long before they'll be better than real girlfriends -- at least
online. Just don't try to meet one in person.

[MarvyGuy]

Dating Call Center Tech
"Hello my name is Sam, how can I be of service"

"Uhh, Hi... I uh just spilled (sob) coffee all over my AI GF interface"

"No problem. Did you cycle her power and try the hard reset?"

"Yes (sniffle) I tried that. She is just sitting there with smoke coming out. We had a date later today and I don't know what else to do"

"No problem sir. We have your RFID on file and will send you another by drone here in an hour."

"Oh thank you thank you! I don't know what I would do without her!"

"Well we are glad to hear that and in future please be more careful with liquids."

Yep will be all IGY when AI fully kicks in and Atlas is doing all of my auto and lawn maintenance.

[Reality Based]

Yes, maybe computers will become smarter, but not "alive". The Singularity is being sold as Terminator like free thinking computers. I say now way that will ever happen. A computer, no matter how sophisticated , is not a true robotic brain. Computers can only do what they are programmed to do. Do you really think metal and silicone came become "alive"? At least Frankenstein's monster was made out of human flesh.

[Tom Mazanec]

http://www.factsandopinions.com/galleri ... f-alphago/

[MarvyGuy]

I liked the cat/tree pic Tom. Interesting article.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... om-7834770

Anyway if John is correct who will be around to date one of these things anyway? Thanks 9 dash line.