9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by John »

9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Hong Kong experiences worst violence in years

** 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160209



Contents:
Bangladesh covers up Tibetan art after China threat
Desperate China official rapidly selling of foreign currency reserves
Monday's stock market plunge blamed on China and on weak earnings
Hong Kong experiences worst violence in years


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Bangladesh, Dhaka Art Summit, China,
People's Bank of China, PBoC, foreign exchange reserves,
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio

Guest

Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by Guest »

China will break up into at least 5-6 countries within the next 5-10 years. HK will become a city-state (or perhaps part of a southern breakaway republic). Shanghai will leave (they even have their own language). Manchuria will break up with Korea reclaiming its former territory in the south of the province. The Mongolian provinces will also break away and probably (but not necessarily) join Mongolia. I think Taiwan will remain independent. It's the precdeing 5-10 years I worry about.

John
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Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by John »

Guest wrote:China will break up into at least 5-6 countries within the next 5-10 years. HK will become a city-state (or perhaps part of a southern breakaway republic). Shanghai will leave (they even have their own language). Manchuria will break up with Korea reclaiming its former territory in the south of the province. The Mongolian provinces will also break away and probably (but not necessarily) join Mongolia. I think Taiwan will remain independent. It's the precdeing 5-10 years I worry about.
That may be, but not without a huge massive war.

Guest

Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by Guest »

That may be, but not without a huge massive war.
But couldn't the war be a civil war? Just inside of China?

John
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Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by John »

Guest wrote: > But couldn't the war be a civil war? Just inside of China?
Yes, China will be fighting an internal civil war at the same time as
an external world war. Unfortunately, the two aren't mutually
exclusive.

I first wrote about this in 2005. Except for the timings, that
article still holds up pretty well.

** China approaches Civil War
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 050116.htm

Guest

Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by Guest »

That article is good, but I think that China could collapse into civil war and be unable to launch an external war. The Achilles Heel of the Chinese military is its navy. Most of its ships and submarines are obsolete, and the modern vessels are of unknown quality. The office corps is inexperienced at fleet operations. South Korea or Japan could destroy the Chinese navy. That's what they are planning to do with America's help. Japan and Korea are worried about China. That's why Korea agreed to the miserable and unpopular settlement on the comfort women issue with Japan: to clear the way for military alliance against China.

John
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Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by John »

Guest wrote: > That article is good, but I think that China could collapse into
> civil war and be unable to launch an external war. The Achilles
> Heel of the Chinese military is its navy. Most of its ships and
> submarines are obsolete, and the modern vessels are of unknown
> quality. The office corps is inexperienced at fleet
> operations. South Korea or Japan could destroy the Chinese
> navy. That's what they are planning to do with America's
> help. Japan and Korea are worried about China. That's why Korea
> agreed to the miserable and unpopular settlement on the comfort
> women issue with Japan: to clear the way for military alliance
> against China.

Things to keep in mind:
  • China fought in WW II in the middle of its civil war. But both
    sides in the civil war put aside their differences to fight against
    the Japanese. An external war can unify two sides in a civil war, at
    least temporarily.
  • And for that reason, growing internal instability in China may
    cause the CCP to trigger a war against Japan or the US in order to
    unify the nation.
  • Even if there's a civil war going on, that wouldn't stop China
    from launching its huge arsenal of nuclear weapons targeting US
    cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers.
  • You say that China could "collapse," but that doesn't mean that
    China would disappear. It could mean that the existing CCP is
    replaced by an even more fascist government that is determined to
    launch an external war.
There's little doubt in my mind that China could launch an external
war, even after a civil war has begun. In fact, an internal civil war
could trigger an external war.

Guest

Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by Guest »

Yes, but China only fought Japan because Japan attacked China and kept advancing into China, even after creating the puppet state of Manchukuo. The Chinese united because the Young Marshal forced the two leaders of the Nationalists and the Communists to do it. The Chinese army did poorly against the invading Japanese. America freed Asians of Japanese rule. Asian armies failed to dislodge the Japanese military from anywhere. In the Second World War, China was only reacting to invasion, not launching a war outside its borders. China only sent soldiers to Korea AFTER the civil war had ended. An invasion of mainland China by foreigners, with China's huge land army waiting, would be folly, but a Chinese invasion of its neighbors via ship would be an even bigger one.

gerald
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Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs

Post by gerald »

This is not 2008

Don't Panic! "Experts" Agree - This Is Not 2008 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-1 ... e-not-2008

hmmm --- worse?

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