6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious
Turkey blocks tens of thousands of Aleppo Syria residents from entering Turkey
** 6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160206
Contents:
Turkey blocks tens of thousands of Aleppo Syria residents from entering Turkey
As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious
Iran's historic struggle between Principlists and Reformists
Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Russia,
Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,
Expediency Council, Guardian Council, Majlis, Kazem Nourmofidi,
Ali Mohammad Dastgheyb, Herasat Office, Principlists, Reformists,
Moderates, Pragmatists, Rouhollah Khomeini, Muhammad Khatami
6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious / Turkey blocks Syrians
-
JimN
Re: 6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious / Turkey blocks Syrians
It's good that you keep us posted on all the craziness going on in-and-re the Middle East, as it's difficult to sort out what's really happening over there from the 'regular' news.
I often find myself a bit confused about basic things such as who exactly all the various players are, and why they all hate each other. You've got the Sunnis and the Shia (and apparently various flavors of both), ISIS/Islamic State of course (and three other names for them that you've committed to memory but I haven't), the Hamas, Hezbollah, the PLO, Fataḥ (nee Palestinian National Liberation Movement), Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Al-Qaeda of course (still operative although we killed a lot of their old-generation leaders), along with their Libyan affiliate Ansar al-Sharia Libya Dawn, the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council, Libya Shield, Libyan Petroleum Facilities Guard (and probably many more Libyan groups whose funky names we will be forced to memorize for Civics class after we invade Libya later this year), and in Syria, well, the crazy number of groups in Libya is rivaled only by the number of "rebel" groups in (the much smaller) Syria ( http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast ... story.html and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... _Civil_War), few of which seem to like each other, but all of whom oppose the tyrant genocidist Bashar al-Assad, of course. Oh and don't forget the Jewish Israelis. Oh and a few Kurds. And the Russians.
It appears that the Russians are mostly bombing any type of group that is rebelling against Bashar al-Assad - not just ISIS. David Cameron warned the Russkies against bombing the Free Syrian Army ( http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-conflict ... ar-1522027) - in spite of the fact that there is no more Free Syrian Army according to http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-conflict ... ar-1522027 and the FSF has largely been absorbed by more radical groups. So although Putin seems to be acting in somewhat of a holier-than-thou attitude of opposing terrorists (and by the way, in a manner quite analogous to the American Vietnam-war era motto of "kill them over there on foreign soil before they come ashore here and attack us on our own soil), in reality Putin is effectively shoring up a genocidal dictator.
I gave a bit of thought to Bashar al-Assad's modus operandi. And although I'm not sure we should give him this much credit for planning ahead, suppose Bashar did have a long-term plan - in which case his plan might conceivably have been something like this:
(0) Principle number zero says that I (Bashar) really would like to get rid of all those Sunnis and Kurds so that my beloved Syria can just consist of the people I want there (presumably Shia).
(1) Rule like a total idiot and total jerk and bias everything in favor of "my" people (the Shia, apparently) so that the Sunnis get pissed off and decide to rebel against me.
(2) Sure enough, lots of Sunni groups do rebel and start what amounts to a civil war.
(3) Use that civil war as an "excuse" to start an organized program of genocide (or is it a combination of religio-cide and genocide) against the Sunnis - one that is exceeded in scope only by (for sure) Hitler and possibly the one in Darfour.
(4) Besides the ones that my genocidal attacks kill directly, most of the rest of them will want to get the heck out of Dodge, so they will flee en masse through Turkey and Greece with an eye toward settling in Europe (whose open borders will attract them like flies to a candle). Let the Europeans have them, good riddance from my (Bashar's) perspective.
(5) So that's the main plan, but maybe I can be so lucky as to solicit help from Putin and get him to come in and carpet bomb the rebels, thus killing even more, but more importantly creating more panic among the Sunnis, and making them want to get the heck out of here even sooner.
(6) And the sympathetic peoples of the world will come in and donate billions to help these refugees leave my country, so they will help the process I instigated of getting the Sunnis the heck out of my (to-be-Shia-only) country.
(7) Oh, and the rest of the world would also set up some peace talks as well, which will give me more time to execute my plan.
If that were Bashar al-Assad's actual long-term plan, well it seems that it couldn't have been executed any better. Of course, one minor detail Bashar failed to consider: This mess he started could bring the world to the brink of the next world war. But he doesn't care - he got the rest of the world to help him "clean up" his country - from his perspective, anyway.
I often find myself a bit confused about basic things such as who exactly all the various players are, and why they all hate each other. You've got the Sunnis and the Shia (and apparently various flavors of both), ISIS/Islamic State of course (and three other names for them that you've committed to memory but I haven't), the Hamas, Hezbollah, the PLO, Fataḥ (nee Palestinian National Liberation Movement), Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Al-Qaeda of course (still operative although we killed a lot of their old-generation leaders), along with their Libyan affiliate Ansar al-Sharia Libya Dawn, the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council, Libya Shield, Libyan Petroleum Facilities Guard (and probably many more Libyan groups whose funky names we will be forced to memorize for Civics class after we invade Libya later this year), and in Syria, well, the crazy number of groups in Libya is rivaled only by the number of "rebel" groups in (the much smaller) Syria ( http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast ... story.html and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... _Civil_War), few of which seem to like each other, but all of whom oppose the tyrant genocidist Bashar al-Assad, of course. Oh and don't forget the Jewish Israelis. Oh and a few Kurds. And the Russians.
It appears that the Russians are mostly bombing any type of group that is rebelling against Bashar al-Assad - not just ISIS. David Cameron warned the Russkies against bombing the Free Syrian Army ( http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-conflict ... ar-1522027) - in spite of the fact that there is no more Free Syrian Army according to http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-conflict ... ar-1522027 and the FSF has largely been absorbed by more radical groups. So although Putin seems to be acting in somewhat of a holier-than-thou attitude of opposing terrorists (and by the way, in a manner quite analogous to the American Vietnam-war era motto of "kill them over there on foreign soil before they come ashore here and attack us on our own soil), in reality Putin is effectively shoring up a genocidal dictator.
I gave a bit of thought to Bashar al-Assad's modus operandi. And although I'm not sure we should give him this much credit for planning ahead, suppose Bashar did have a long-term plan - in which case his plan might conceivably have been something like this:
(0) Principle number zero says that I (Bashar) really would like to get rid of all those Sunnis and Kurds so that my beloved Syria can just consist of the people I want there (presumably Shia).
(1) Rule like a total idiot and total jerk and bias everything in favor of "my" people (the Shia, apparently) so that the Sunnis get pissed off and decide to rebel against me.
(2) Sure enough, lots of Sunni groups do rebel and start what amounts to a civil war.
(3) Use that civil war as an "excuse" to start an organized program of genocide (or is it a combination of religio-cide and genocide) against the Sunnis - one that is exceeded in scope only by (for sure) Hitler and possibly the one in Darfour.
(4) Besides the ones that my genocidal attacks kill directly, most of the rest of them will want to get the heck out of Dodge, so they will flee en masse through Turkey and Greece with an eye toward settling in Europe (whose open borders will attract them like flies to a candle). Let the Europeans have them, good riddance from my (Bashar's) perspective.
(5) So that's the main plan, but maybe I can be so lucky as to solicit help from Putin and get him to come in and carpet bomb the rebels, thus killing even more, but more importantly creating more panic among the Sunnis, and making them want to get the heck out of here even sooner.
(6) And the sympathetic peoples of the world will come in and donate billions to help these refugees leave my country, so they will help the process I instigated of getting the Sunnis the heck out of my (to-be-Shia-only) country.
(7) Oh, and the rest of the world would also set up some peace talks as well, which will give me more time to execute my plan.
If that were Bashar al-Assad's actual long-term plan, well it seems that it couldn't have been executed any better. Of course, one minor detail Bashar failed to consider: This mess he started could bring the world to the brink of the next world war. But he doesn't care - he got the rest of the world to help him "clean up" his country - from his perspective, anyway.
-
Guest
Re: 6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious / Turkey blocks Syrians
What do you think about a return to monarchy in Iran?
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests