5-Nov-15 World View -- Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy

[John]

5-Nov-15 World View -- Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy


US, Britain suggest ISIS bomb brought down Russian plane in Egypt

** 5-Nov-15 World View -- Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151105



Contents:
US, Britain suggest ISIS bomb brought down Russian plane in Egypt
Plane bombing threatens Russia's Syria strategy


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Russia, Metrojet Airbus A321, Flight 9268,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Sharm el-Sheikh, Afghanistan, al-Qaeda

[vincecate]

The likely possibility that an ISIS-linked bomb brought down Russia's Metrojet Flight 9268 is going to throw Russia's Syria strategy into chaos, because of the justified perception Sunni jihadists targeted a Russian plane in revenge for Russia's military intervention in Syria.

I would expect this to throw Russia's Syria efforts into overdrive. Instead of just 15 planes bombing ISIS with 4 flights each every day, something much more. Maybe 50 planes. Obama might back off from something like this but Putin is more the type to attack much harder.

Maybe he works out a deal where Egypt, Israel, and Russia clean up the Sinai.

[Guest]

You make it all sound so easy, vince.

When are you going off to fight? Or are you just going to stay in your arm chair?

[John]

> The likely possibility that an ISIS-linked bomb brought down
> Russia's Metrojet Flight 9268 is going to throw Russia's Syria
> strategy into chaos, because of the justified perception Sunni
> jihadists targeted a Russian plane in revenge for Russia's
> military intervention in Syria.

> I would expect this to throw Russia's Syria efforts into
> overdrive. Instead of just 15 planes bombing ISIS with 4 flights
> each every day, something much more. Maybe 50 planes. Obama
> might back off from something like this but Putin is more the type
> to attack much harder.

> Maybe he works out a deal where Egypt, Israel, and Russia clean up
> the Sinai.

I guess this is possible, but it has a huge downside -- inflaming
the Northern Caucasus provinces, provoking a new war in Russia
like the two Chechen wars of the 1990s - which would be VERY
unpopular in Russia.

Also, it's not clear how Russia would wipe out ISIS even if Putin
wanted to. He'd have to send Russian ground troops into Syria - which
would be VERY, VERY unpopular in Russia.

As for cleaning up the Sinai, there's no way that Egypt is going to
allow Russian or Israeli warplanes to bomb onto Egyptian soil.

[Jack Edwards]

One would think that the Russians killed in this (most likely terrorist) attack were of the higher income / more influential variety.

Average citizens in Russia - I doubt vacation in Egypt. The response a country takes when "important" people are killed is different when your average Vladamir get's killed. On the other hand, does an attack like this hit closer to home for the decision makers in Russia? It's all fun and games when it's just soldiers and peasants getting killed right? Now the terrorists are targeting my people...hmmm. How important is this "save face" activity in Syria anyway?

I think it may come down to - generational dynamics. If the folks in Russia are irrationally all-in because they are in that part of their generational cycle, then I expect they will respond to this incident with more war - like behavior.

Regards,
Jack

[vincecate]

As for cleaning up the Sinai, there's no way that Egypt is going to
allow Russian or Israeli warplanes to bomb onto Egyptian soil.

It might just be satellite and drone images so Egypt can know where to shoot.