30-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli Arab citizens and politicians choose sides on incitement issue

[John]

30-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli Arab citizens and politicians choose sides on incitement issue

Israeli Arab citizens stop rioting because of pocketbook issues


** 30-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli Arab citizens and politicians choose sides on incitement issue
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151030


Contents:
Israeli Arab politicians split sharply over incitement of violence
Israeli Arab citizens stop rioting because of pocketbook issues


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Israel, Ayman Odeh, Joint Arab List,
Nazareth, Ali Salam, Zouheir Bahloul, Oslo Generation

[vincecate]

They are looking for a leader who take them to war against the Israelis, and at some point, such a leader will emerge.

The Israeli economy is like $600 billion and Palestinian is like $10 billion. So about 60x. For the last few years the Israeli tanks can stop anti-tank missiles, as can their armored personnel carriers. The Iron dome already works really well and there will soon be lasers to hit incoming targets. Israel makes huge numbers of really good drones. The Israelis have bomb shelters all over, a good warning system, and lots of practice getting to shelters fast. The Palestinians don't have any tanks or any jets. As far as military the Israelis are far more than 60x the Palestinians, not even counting nukes.

I don't think Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, or Iraq, are currently in any position to fight against Israel. With Iran busy helping the Russians against ISIS, I don't even think Iran is currently available to join in against Israel. In the past Russian has sent arms to the Arabs to fight against Israel, but it seems like the Russians and Israels now have rather similar views on Jihadis and are getting along well. I believe Israel has been giving some targeting info to the Russians and they have been bombing the targets in Syria. In past wars even with all of these guys on the Palestinian side against Israel the Israelis still won. Only in the 1948 war where the Israelis started with no tanks and no jets was the outcome of the war still in question after the first few days of fighting.

If it is only the Palestinians vs Israel, how can it be a generational war to the Israelis? To the Israelis it will just be another "mowing the lawn". With the Israelis carefully and deliberately mowing the lawn, trying not to hit civilians, and willing to stop any time they say "uncle", how can it be a generational war to the Palestinians?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)

[John]

Generational crisis wars are fought by the people, not by the
politicians. There are 423 million Arabs in the region, but only 8
million Israelis. I think it will be more than "mowing the lawn."

[vincecate]

Generational crisis wars are fought by the people, not by the
politicians. There are 423 million Arabs in the region, but only 8
million Israelis. I think it will be more than "mowing the lawn."

Do you think any significant number of jets or tanks would come from other countries against the will of the politicians? What countries? Wars are fought by people with weapons. People without weapons don't really count. Next, if one side has weapons that let them kill the other without even risking their own lives, numbers no longer matter. With Iron dome no jets can bomb Israel but Israel can bomb anyone. Their tanks stop incoming missiles and probably slow shells enough they are not much risk. Nobody else has this in service yet.

What other Arabs do you think are currently in a position to fight Israel? The Arabs make almost no weapons on their own, so it would only be if Russia or someone were supplying them with weapons that they would be able to fight. Supplies are used up fast in a war so it is dangerous to go into a war without supplies lined up. Who would supply weapons to the Arabs if they were fighting Israel now?

It is just hard for me to see how you get a crisis war anytime soon for Israel and Palestinians.

Last time Israel and Gaza fought nobody else seemed eager to join in and it seems they would have less inclination to do so now.

[vincecate]

Generational crisis wars are fought by the people, not by the
politicians. There are 423 million Arabs in the region, but only 8
million Israelis. I think it will be more than "mowing the lawn."

The first time, in 1948, it was maybe 200 million Arabs to 1/2 million Israelis and the Israelis had no tanks or jets at the start. Compared to that, this will be like "mowing the lawn" (what Israelis call it when they have to bomb Gaza every now and then to get them to stop launching rockets).

[Guest]

The Jews in Europe are unarmed. With tens of millions of Muslims living in Europe, the Jews would be mulch. You haven't even considered that, have you?

The world has changed. The liberals have really crapped in their beds now. None of the migrants, illegals, immigrants, cherished angels, whatever you want to call them is ever going to be deported. They are not there to become Europeans. They are settlers conquering a new land.

Part of me is enjoying all of this. Europe's holier than though attitude, attacking Americans as racists for not allowing the Latinos to overrun the States, and now this happens. Hahaha...

I expect civil war to break out in Europe (and perhaps America) within months. Angela Merkel, childless whore that she is, will be removed from office, perhaps even assassinated. (It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.) Europe faces a stark choice. Guess what that is?

[MarvyGuy]

As for Israel vs the rest of the Arab world I think it basically breaks down into 2 camps - namely faith vs rational thinking. Rational Thinking would say that there is no way Israel could stop the hordes esp. if they have some Russian or Chinese backing. Faith would say no matter how bad it looks Israel will eventually come out on top. As to which one is correct I have my own feelings on it but we can say we will watch how it plays out - if we are still around to do so.

For the takeover of Christian Europe I am not sure how that will play out either - but not looking good for the Christians this time round for sure. I think there will be push back eventually since once you wife or kid gets gang raped you will probably say to h*** with it and go get some payback on the first person who doesn't look European. While hard to get they can still purchase hunting rifles/shotguns in some countries but by and large everyone is unarmed since they have not seen the need post WW2 and gov't today of course don't want the sheep fighting back. What surprises me are idiots like Cumberbatch wanting to rail at the UK gov't to let more in (but then most actors are compromised anyway). What lunacy given everyone can find out what is going on if they care to look.

[John]

> Generational crisis wars are fought by the people, not by the
> politicians. There are 423 million Arabs in the region, but only
> 8 million Israelis. I think it will be more than "mowing the
> lawn."

> Do you think any significant number of jets or tanks would come
> from other countries against the will of the politicians? What
> countries? Wars are fought by people with weapons. People without
> weapons don't really count. Next, if one side has weapons that
> let them kill the other without even risking their own lives,
> numbers no longer matter. With Iron dome no jets can bomb Israel
> but Israel can bomb anyone. Their tanks stop incoming missiles
> and probably slow shells enough they are not much risk. Nobody
> else has this in service yet.

> What other Arabs do you think are currently in a position to fight
> Israel? The Arabs make almost no weapons on their own, so it
> would only be if Russia or someone were supplying them with
> weapons that they would be able to fight. Supplies are used up
> fast in a war so it is dangerous to go into a war without supplies
> lined up. Who would supply weapons to the Arabs if they were
> fighting Israel now?

> It is just hard for me to see how you get a crisis war anytime
> soon for Israel and Palestinians.

> Last time Israel and Gaza fought nobody else seemed eager to join
> in and it seems they would have less inclination to do so
> now.

> The first time, in 1948, it was maybe 200 million Arabs to 1/2
> million Israelis and the Israelis had no tanks or jets at the
> start. Compared to that, this will be like "mowing the lawn"
> (what Israelis call it when they have to bomb Gaza every now and
> then to get them to stop launching rockets).

Well, you're right that there have been three "mowing the lawn" wars
in Gaza in the last few years, where the "mowing the lawn" strategy
refers to damaging Hamas's infrastructure sufficiently to end the war,
only to have to fight the war again in a couple of years, after the
infrastructure has been rebuilt.

But what I'm saying that the emerging situation today is fundamentally
different than it's been. During those past three wars, the actions
were led by the Hamas leadership. Palestinians attacked when the
leadership told them to, and stopped attacking when the leadership
told them to stop.

But in the emerging situation, young people today are no longer
willing to listen to these leaders. According to the CIA World Fact
Book, 20% of Gaza's population are in the 15-24 age range, and so is
21% of the West Bank -- about 200,000 males in each territory,
or 400,000 young males total.

You say that you can't imagine how a crisis war could begin? How
about if those 200,000 young male Gazans blow holes in the walls, pour
across into Israel and start killing Israeli citizens en masse
in their homes and villages? And how about if they're joined by those
200,000 young male Palestinians on the West Bank, who start with the
Jewish settlers and continue with the Jews in Jerusalem.

What good would Israel's tanks and bombers be then? You can't bomb
Jerusalem, and you can't bomb Israeli villages and settlements.

That's the difference. That's what a generational crisis war is like.
It's not two tanks shooting at each other. It's hand to hand combat
in homes, neighborhoods and streets by people armed with sticks and
knives. It's what happened in Central African Republic last year,
it's what happened in Rwanda in 1994, in Bosnia in 1994, and in
Palestine in 1947.

And by the way, that assumes that the bloody mess stays confined to
Israel and the Palestinian territories. The Palestinians are likely
to be joined by tens or hundreds of thousands from Jordan, Lebanon and
Egypt. Whatever happens, it will not be mowing the lawn.

[vincecate]

ISIS affiliate in Sinai claims responsibility for shooting down Russian passenger jet leaving Egypt. I think Egypt, Russia, and Israel are all on the same side.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/ISIS-a ... ane-430620

[vincecate]

You say that you can't imagine how a crisis war could begin? How
about if those 200,000 young male Gazans blow holes in the walls, pour
across into Israel and start killing Israeli citizens en masse
in their homes and villages?

Masses of people trying to charge through machine gun fire does not work out for the masses. A hole in the wall would soon be plugged by dead bodies.

The Gazans don't have guns at home and the Israelis do. Israelis are all trained to shoot. Israelis shooting from inside the protection of their house against a Gazan mobs going down the street with knifes would mostly result in dead Gazans. A number of the recent knife attacks have been stopped by Israeli citizens carrying guns. I think you mentioned that guns sales for Israelis are way up.

I am not saying I can't imagine a war starting, all I am saying is that I can't imagine it being an existential threat to Israel or generational crisis war for Israel.

The soldiers and tanks will get there fast and machine gunners from inside tanks against mobs of people with knifes is a turkey shoot, not a crisis war. Homicidal mobs can not keep moving around once soldiers are there. Soldiers are all over.