27-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened

[John]

27-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened


Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline

** 27-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150727



Contents:
Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline
Al-Assad announces general amnesty for Syria's army deserters
Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Damascus, Homs, Turkey, Nato,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Democratic Union Party, PYD

[MarvyGuy]

Interesting article if an odd name for a website!

"From Assad’s point of view, the more radical his domestic opponents become, the less reprehensible his regime will appear in comparison. His focus on decimating more moderate rebel groups over combating ISIL has turned into an unspoken, occasional alliance of convenience. His apparent calculus is that when it is only Assad vs. ISIL, the world will choose Assad. However, his fighting moderate rebel groups instead of ISIL is prolonging a bloody stalemate and may lead to a Pyrrhic victory, at best. Such a strategy will only benefit ISIL and al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front in the long run."

http://warontherocks.com/2015/07/like-i ... feat-isil/

[Guest]

Is Turkey really fighting ISIS or just pretending to? I know they are fighting the Kurds, but I have doubts they are really fighting ISIS. And if they are fighting ISIS, why? A weakened ISIS means a stronger Kurdish position.

Do you think Turkey will launch a full scale ground invasion? Wouldn't that mean a civil war with the Kurds inside of Turkey? Perhaps this is all a really dangerous gamble by the embattled Turkish President to knock the Kurdish political party out and cut a deal with other political parties and secure his postion and carry out reforms. But, what a terrible gamble. Could this be right?

What would Iran do if Turkey rolled into Iraq and/or Syria?

What does Israel want out of Syria? It seems there are no realistic good outcomes for them. I mean, I believe Israel offers support to Kurds, but the Kurds won't be able to take over two Arab countries. If Bashar falls, then what? ISIS? Al-queda? I doubt the moderates in Syria have much support. Id the best situation for Israel a frozen conflict?

Is tis the part where John says "There is no solution?"

[MarvyGuy]

If we consider that, as John has been pointing out for some years now, that a war between Shia/Sunni plus another with Israel and the Arabs is just getting “kicked into gear” then we must assume those alignments fall fully into place and the conflict begins to spread across the Middle East/N Africa

My guess is that Turkey is wanting to take the lead on the Suuni side so they would be somewhat in competition with other groups like ISIS but right now I agree with you that they are not as interesting in fighting ISIS as long as ISIS is fighting Kurds (Assad seems to be doing the same with respect to moderate Syrian Rebels). They just need to seem to be fighting ISIS to try and keep the moderate Kurds in line. I think the US is not so interested in fighting ISIS as long as they are going after Assad, hence you see a lot of reports on ineffective airstrikes etc. This will eventually change though, as US aligns fully with Iran. I guess if Assad can hang on to that point he will still be around for awhile.

Things are moving so fast right now that it is really hard to make sense of it. So thanks to GenDyn the big picture is clear while the moment by moment is still "coming into focus".