21-Jul-15 World View -- Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea Kurds blame Erdogan

[John]

21-Jul-15 World View -- Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea

Kurds blame Erdogan for ISIS terrorist attack in southeastern Turkey

** 21-Jul-15 World View -- Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150721



Contents:
Kurds blame Erdogan for ISIS terrorist attack in southeastern Turkey
Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurds, Suruc,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Kobani, People's Democratic Party, HDP,
Philippines, China, South China Sea, BRP Sierra Madre,
Second Thomas Shoal, Subic Bay

[Guest]

Is conflict in Asia years or decades away?

Would Taiwan fight China or join it?

[MarvyGuy]

So I see this story getting some notice on U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Scott Swift flying around in a P-8A Poseidon with China reacting;
http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articl ... -china-sea

I guess he wanted to hear the guy tell them to prease go away for himself. /sarc

And trying to find the correct website for Lowy I ran across this (Iran negotiations):\

“I hope,” Markov writes, “that Obama will continue the policy of revising his own mistakes and return Russian-American relations from hybrid war to peace.” And he stressed what he viewed as the importance of the fact that in their recent exchanges, the two leaders did not talk about Ukraine.”

That will now be put in the past, Markov says. “Now it is necessary to act together against ISIS. Russia, the US, Iran, and the EU together.”

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-oba ... onov-says/

He must read Generational Dynamics - Welcome comrade Markov!

[MarvyGuy]

From Lowy,

"If a military conflict were to break out, the land features as well as the ships and aircraft operating from them would be vulnerable to attack, but in peacetime and in a crisis, they will provide China with the capability to hold US forces at risk at a farther distance than it can at present. This could have implications for a US effort to come to Taiwan's defense. A US carrier battle group sailing from the Arabian Gulf or Indian Ocean that was coming to Taiwan's aid would have to pass through the South China Sea. In addition, in wartime, the need to attack these sites and the aircraft and ships deploying from them would divert US assets from performing other missions.

In the event that China decides to dislodge other claimants from their outposts, the PLA will have greater capability to do so. Helicopters, amphibious landing craft and mobile artillery batteries could be used to conduct assaults on nearby land features. Alternatively, China could opt to put pressure on rival claimants to abandon some of their outposts. For example, it could attempt to disrupt resupply operations to isolated features that lack self-defense capability, such as Second Thomas Shoal, where a contingent of Filipino marines is stationed on a decaying World War II military ship. In early 2014, Chinese coast guard ships twice tried to block civilian Filipino vessels from resupplying the marines deployed on the Shoal."

[gerald]

From Lowy,

"If a military conflict were to break out, the land features as well as the ships and aircraft operating from them would be vulnerable to attack, but in peacetime and in a crisis, they will provide China with the capability to hold US forces at risk at a farther distance than it can at present. This could have implications for a US effort to come to Taiwan's defense. A US carrier battle group sailing from the Arabian Gulf or Indian Ocean that was coming to Taiwan's aid would have to pass through the South China Sea. In addition, in wartime, the need to attack these sites and the aircraft and ships deploying from them would divert US assets from performing other missions.

In the event that China decides to dislodge other claimants from their outposts, the PLA will have greater capability to do so. Helicopters, amphibious landing craft and mobile artillery batteries could be used to conduct assaults on nearby land features. Alternatively, China could opt to put pressure on rival claimants to abandon some of their outposts. For example, it could attempt to disrupt resupply operations to isolated features that lack self-defense capability, such as Second Thomas Shoal, where a contingent of Filipino marines is stationed on a decaying World War II military ship. In early 2014, Chinese coast guard ships twice tried to block civilian Filipino vessels from resupplying the marines deployed on the Shoal."

I am not a military expert, however it appears that a lot of people are thinking in terms of WWII activities. History is replete with changes in tactics and weapons that changed the expected outcome of hostilities.

[Guest]

How about societal breakdown, bankruptcy, and regional warlordism trumping global war?

[MarvyGuy]

I have somewhat of a macabre fascination with these goings on in the Pacific, and seek to try and understand the “ whys “. I have no idea what would happen if/when the shooting starts but I can imagine with anti ship technology today that this is changing the picture for ASEAN and USPACFLT. Static defenses are very 19th century but I am sure they do cause pause for thought.

I imagine that any crisis in China, financially, could be offset by attacking an outside entity to try and bring everyone together in a common goal. How effective this would be is hard for me to say. I feel that John is correct and a shooting war is going to start, eventually. He has been accurate so far and I have no reason to believe that, all standard reasons given aside, that the first wave of attacks will put a lot of analysis into the trash bin. There is so much we don’t know, such as the real capabilities of their newer weapons systems, the extent that they have penetrated US military systems, including communications, etc etc.

Also if you look at Germany, who had a superior army, good generals (in the beginning) and loads of advanced technologies (ME262, V1, V2, etc) a number of other factors (lack of fuel, Ni and Cr), and bad decisions meant that it was all worthless to the sheer numbers brought against them in the end.

[gerald]

I have somewhat of a macabre fascination with these goings on in the Pacific, and seek to try and understand the “ whys “. I have no idea what would happen if/when the shooting starts but I can imagine with anti ship technology today that this is changing the picture for ASEAN and USPACFLT. Static defenses are very 19th century but I am sure they do cause pause for thought.

I imagine that any crisis in China, financially, could be offset by attacking an outside entity to try and bring everyone together in a common goal. How effective this would be is hard for me to say. I feel that John is correct and a shooting war is going to start, eventually. He has been accurate so far and I have no reason to believe that, all standard reasons given aside, that the first wave of attacks will put a lot of analysis into the trash bin. There is so much we don’t know, such as the real capabilities of their newer weapons systems, the extent that they have penetrated US military systems, including communications, etc etc.

Also if you look at Germany, who had a superior army, good generals (in the beginning) and loads of advanced technologies (ME262, V1, V2, etc) a number of other factors (lack of fuel, Ni and Cr), and bad decisions meant that it was all worthless to the sheer numbers brought against them in the end.

Yes , but we must not forget, Genghis Khan fought and won against forces far larger then his.

[MarvyGuy]

Well, Japan did a pretty good job in the 1930’s and early 40’s, Germany overwhelmed everyone in the early 1940’s, Finland handed Russia its rear end in a well fought conflict, Israel in 6 day War and Yom Kippur. I can’t say I have studied the Mongol horde enough. I suspect we will find that a combination of their recurve bow, prowess on horseback and method of dealing with conquered territories played an important part. In the end manufacturing, air superiority and a disregard for human life decided the conflicts for the Allies during WWII.

The initial benefit goes to the attacker who has prepared well, faces an opponent who is not prepared, poorly led, or has been compromised, and strikes when least expected. I am sure this list is not exhaustive being “off the top of my head”. I feel China will do very well initially but not sure who will come out ahead on "the long haul."

[Guest]

How much "long haul" is involved in a nuclear war? I think it will be over pretty quick. The unlucky ones will survive. The parts of the world left untouched (according to John) will be Latim America and Africa, both made up of nations in quasi-anarchy on their best days. I don't see those people being able to maintain, let alone, rebuild much of anything.

I would rather be killed in a war then be conquered by another country. But I won't delude myself into believing that somehow America and China can fight a war without it going nuclear.