29-May-15 World View -- As Russia's economy worsens, withdrawal from Ukraine may be necessary

[John]

29-May-15 World View -- As Russia's economy worsens, withdrawal from Ukraine may be necessary

US-China military tensions get rapidly inflamed over South China Sea

** 29-May-15 World View -- As Russia's economy worsens, withdrawal from Ukraine may be necessary
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150529



Contents:
Russia using mobile crematoriums to continue pretense about Ukraine
Russia's economic crisis may force withdrawal from Ukraine
US-China military tensions get rapidly inflamed over South China Sea


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine,
Mac Thornberry, China, Ashton Carter, South China Sea,
Vietnam, Philippines

[Tom Mazanec]

US-China military tensions get rapidly inflamed over South China Sea

I am interested in how this is heating up. I read of a Chinese fable in one of my Kindle magazine subscriptions. A noble or warlord or some such asked the Emperor how much his cauldrons weighed. This tipped the Emperor off to the fact that the questioner intended to take over the Empire, right down to the cauldrons. So the Emperor took action and killed him. The point of the story was not to tip your hand until you are ready to act. Does China feel it is ready to take on America?

[John]

> US-China military tensions get rapidly inflamed over South China
> Sea

> I am interested in how this is heating up. I read of a Chinese
> fable in one of my Kindle magazine subscriptions. A noble or
> warlord or some such asked the Emperor how much his cauldrons
> weighed. This tipped the Emperor off to the fact that the
> questioner intended to take over the Empire, right down to the
> cauldrons. So the Emperor took action and killed him. The point of
> the story was not to tip your hand until you are ready to
> act. Does China feel it is ready to take on America?

That fable may be highly relevant.

Ashton Carter made a new speech in Singapore on Saturday morning. He
was extremely critical of China, in a way that will infuriate China
and raise nationalist passions, and he said that the US will continue
with naval and aircraft patrols in "international waters" throughout
the South China Sea. He demanded that the man-made island building
stop.

China has had a major policy change in the last few months. They used
to deny that the land reclamation had any military purpose, but now
they're openly acknowledging that the islands are for military
purposes.

As you suggest, this policy change has effectively "tipped their
hand," and may signal that they're ready to strike.

China is in a massive state of denial, believing that they will win a
war quickly, because the US will quickly back down. Their first step
is likely to be to shoot down an unmanned drone, or even a manned
surveillance plane, saying that it's an unauthorized entry into
China's sovereign territory. They believe that Obama is so weak that
he won't retaliate, and they're completely wrong about that.

It's hard for me to see how the status quo is going to continue
much longer.