26-Jan-15 World View -- Far left Syriza party wins in Greece

[John]

26-Jan-15 World View -- Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece


Is Greece's Alexis Tsipras pragmatic or delusional?

** 26-Jan-15 World View -- Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150126



Contents:
Girlfriend Peristera (Betty) Baziana good fit for Greece's Alexis Tsipras
Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece
Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is third in Greece's elections
Is Greece's Alexis Tsipras pragmatic or delusional?


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Syriza,
Peristera (Betty) Baziana, New Democracy,
Golden Dawn, pavlos Fyssas, Germany, eurozone,
European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund, IMF

[mooreupp]

I don't post nearly enough, but I love this website. Half the way I look at politics/economics/news comes from this site (with The Market Ticker also being a positive influence) and I am very much wiser for it.

"But if he doubles down, and pursues a policy of blackmailing Brussels and the Germans, saying in effect "You need me more than I need you, the eurozone needs Greece more than Greece needs the euro, and so I can do whatever I want, and you'll have to go along with it," then we can anticipate the worst of all possible scenarios."

I'm not entirely sure I agree here (not completely anyway). Those Greek decisions can start us down the path of an economic collapse, but that's in the cards already as a certain ending. I think a game of kick the can down the road again is probably still the worst result as every kick is just making the eventual correction all the worse. With that in mind, as idiotic as I think most the political proposals are, Greece is probably doing the best thing if they force a default here. The people are never paying down all that debt and the sooner that is recognized and the debt is mostly defaulted on (destroying Greece's prospects of additional debt for time as consequence), the better things probably are.

Granted "better" is very a relative world. Given the size of debt (which needs to be remembered is nothing but pulled forward demand), we are heading for an unmitigated disaster no matter what.

[NoOneImportant]

John, to offer a bit of quasi-independent corroboration, the metals markets have responded, after a long gradual downward price spiral, with concern. Virtually coincidentally with your noting the approaching Greek difficulty early in January, metals prices have reversed fairly dramatically. Silver, specifically, is up roughly 20% since you noted the coming difficulty.

Regarding 2+2=5. For me my greatest self-improvement has come from reflecting upon my past choices, and the resulting outcomes from those choices (reflection upon past performance). Reflection has personally always told me what I did wrong, and whose fault it was - invariably mine. That after-the-fact reflection is almost always personally painful, and unpleasant; but the benefit always far outweighs the cost. Whether it's a good outcome or a bad outcome being reflected upon, the person reflecting (me) must take the ultimate personal responsibility for how he got to where he is, and accept the personal responsibility for the choices that yielded the results being contemplated - both the good, and the bad. Although I must admit that I do find reflecting over good outcomes much easier to deal with.

When reflecting, the germane and painful questions asked are virtually always the same: "what might I have done differently?; why did't is see it coming?; why wasn't I prepared?; what should I have known that I didn't?; who might have helped?" Narcissists never feel compelled to reflect on their past actions, for, as you noted John, they are convinced that they are smarter than everyone else. The consequence is that, without reflection over past bad outcomes, the narcissist is destined to make the same mistakes repeatedly, over and over again; always being amazed that the same mistaken actions don't yield a "new and improved" result. Instead the narcissist is always convinced (again, as you noted) that "...somebody did it to me...." This sabotage conclusion is necessary for the narcissist, as any other conclusion might lead the narcissist to question the unquestionable - that he is the smartest man in the room. In fact, essentially they (narcissists) have actually come to believe that 2+2 does, in fact, really equal 5.

Possibly even more important than any individual error that a narcissist might make is the fact that narcissists are structurally unable to learn from their past mistakes. They, narcissists, are destined to engage in one repeated catastrophic action after another; always believing that it was sabotage, and not simple stupidity, lack of preparation, lack of understanding, or simple ignorance that led them to their repeated bad outcomes (while Obama may seal his past academic records, he may not seal his catastrophic Presidency). It will soon be time for the American electorate to reflect upon their actions -- long term, do they really believe that you can get something for nothing? In short, what does the American public really believe 2+2 equals?

[vincecate]

If the Greeks have cut spending enough that the only reason they have a deficit is the interest on their huge debt, then they really can default on the debt and eliminate the deficit and be just fine. I think they were about at that point. It is the logical and rational move and one that Mish predicted a long time ago. However, they can not have a huge splurge as nobody else will lend them money for awhile.

[mooreupp]

Agreed Vincecate. I'm not convinced the Greeks have necessarily cut back on spending enough that they won't have to further (even if bills are less than everything minus interest right now, economic fallout will probably require more), but repudiating the debt now is the logical move. You are never going to pay it off and there comes a point that you are simply better off dealing with the consequences of default than living under it (at least over the long run). That comes at the cost of no further borrowing for awhile and that means any spending splurge is ridiculous beyond belief, but getting out of the debt is the first step.

If this actually is allowed to spiral to the point that we have default (rather than a bailout), it will be interesting/scary to watch. Whether or not Greece is a big enough to send the whole vastly over-leveraged financial system crashing is something I'm not sure of, but when things really start going down I think it will be pretty fast.

[Contrarianoutlook]

How can you continue to write the falsehood that the conservatives did not see the housing bubble, that conservatives did not predict Greece's failures and that conservative narrative goes against your own predictions through generational dynamics when it is obvious to the conservatives that actually read conservative media and articles that they are one and the same predictions, just different models and method but the same conclusions.

Read Thomas Sowell, or most of the articles at Town Hall, watch uncommon Knowledge by the hoover institution, view the panels and videos at PJTV media or read Breitbart. The Conservatives have seen these problems coming for over 50 years, and have written extensively about them for the last 30 years especially Milton Friedman. Ofcourse there will be a problem of deflation after decades of inflation, the markets are trying to correct themselves from the bubbles created by the RINOS and leftists.

I understand that you want to remain neutral in your politics, but it is shame that you resort to a falsehood about conservatives in order to paint that neutrality as the facts speak for themselves. If you are unaware of the conservative writings or are confusing conservative with RINO then please explain so.

Anyway I really appreciate this blog even though we disagree on many opinions, the facts remain the same.

[John]

Why don't you provide links to specific articles that you believe support your position?

P.S.: Don't ask me to sit through a video.

[mooreupp]

I remember reading about the housing bubble in 2007 from The Market Ticker and talks of how all this leverage was mathematically going to lead us into a new depression. I couldn't deny what I was reading was likely, but at the same time, to even mention is out loud to others felt almost absurd. The idea of a new Great Depression seemed very far fetched and it didn't matter if I was talking to conservatives or liberals, both were quick to dismiss and think I was a little off. I'll grant there are more conservatives than liberals getting the debt portion of thing (which makes sense given the limited government/fiscal conservative belief system that is theoretically used), but it was still a much smaller subset and not really reflective of the general left/right narrative in this country (unfortunately).

There were blogs and commentary from conservative leaning groups/individuals I think about these subjects, but that's very different from it being the mainstream left/right narrative. The way things are looked at in the media and in society is largely of one side vs. the other and individual opinions matter far less than that general narrative. If you were talking gay marriage (even when most the Democrats were officially against), it was seen as the left pushing gay marriage and the right against. When you were talking the economy, it was seen as Republicans (with Bush as president) for lower taxes and the Democrats for more spending. The housing bubble didn't even enter the consciousness of most people as being something from either side and neither made an effort to make it something until it was unavoidable.

[John]

You can find a few bloggers who saw what happened -- notably
Calculated Risk's Bill McBride (who, incidentally, is a liberal as far
as I know). But mainstream economists, liberal or conservative, were
totally oblivious to the real estate bubble, even though the real
estate bubble was perfectly obvious. One thing about economists --
they're no more "analytical" or "scientific" than the most ideological
loony left or loony right politicians. Basically, they don't have the
vaguest clue what they're talking about, as I've said many times.

[gerald]

You can find a few bloggers who saw what happened -- notably
Calculated Risk's Bill McBride (who, incidentally, is a liberal as far
as I know). But mainstream economists, liberal or conservative, were
totally oblivious to the real estate bubble, even though the real
estate bubble was perfectly obvious. One thing about economists --
they're no more "analytical" or "scientific" than the most ideological
loony left or loony right politicians. Basically, they don't have the
vaguest clue what they're talking about, as I've said many times.

Why is this so?
The media pushes lies, hides the "truth" or doesn't discuss certain issues, and many in the media apparently can't do critical thinking or have any back ground in "history"etc. except probably agenda journalism ( media is a big problem).
Politicians like adoration and power and want to get reelected and get rich in government - - or more rich.
And the voters are generally uninformed for various reasons -- see the media and schools --- and they want simple easy painless solutions and right now!
etc,etc. -- until there is a crisis that can't be hidden.

same old same old