7-Nov-14 World View - Russia's troubles rise, ruble&oil fall

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John
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7-Nov-14 World View - Russia's troubles rise, ruble&oil fall

Postby John » Thu Nov 06, 2014 11:43 pm

7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall

France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists

** 7-Nov-14 World View -- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e141107.htm#e141107




Contents:
Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall
Russia loses influence in East Ukraine as economy weakens
France adopts new law to stop young people from going to Syria to be jihadists


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, U.S. Crude, Brent Crude,
China, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Crimea,
Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic,
France, Syria

MarvyGuy

Re: 7-Nov-14 World View - Russia's troubles rise, ruble&oil

Postby MarvyGuy » Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:17 pm

So to continue my mental exercise “just cause”: So Russia being backed further into a corner re Ukraine, NATO, Sanctions, Oil prices, Ruble etc. and Europe triple dip as sanctions hurt them as well and Socialist economies and policies imploding well something would have to give. As unrest breaks out in Europe and Putin’s Poll numbers drop it increases the pressure to make a decision increases.

Will Russia use cold weather to further promote a schism to crater European sanctions while continuing to fly fighters/bombers around and talk about nukes while moving missiles westward? He could, for instance, wait for a very cold day, ring up Merkel and threaten to cut gas/oil to Germany – or hit the “reset” button and “oops sorry” and give them a taste of what could come if they don’t relent (risky move though). Not sure what this means for Poland but they are clearly worried about it. So this means natural resources become very important in the Med. http://www.wnd.com/2014/11/energy-war-now-heating-mideast/

I could see Putin continuing to try and reestablish the old Bloc by any means possible – I mean who is going to try and stop him, right? For the Blocs I suppose fomenting destabilization of governments is the way to go even if you can’t predict the final outcome. Report from Ukrane on tanks/arty rolling in from Russia but not sure this is confirmed.

The Chinese can just wait until the opportune time while getting great deals on Russian energy. They are probably quite happy to see Russia get squeezed and thus spend too much time in the West.

“He (Andrey Denisov) said "more actively taking part in regional economic cooperation to create favorable conditions for the social and economic development of Russia, particularly east Russia," is the country's strategic goal in the region. Just like China's strategy of developing its west, Russia places emphasis on developing its eastern region. "It would be a great boost to east Russia's development if China's business community can actively participate in investment projects in Siberia and the far east," said the ambassador.” http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/n/2014/1107/c102775-8805997.html

Frankly not sure what is up about that last sentence – just leave the back door unlocked and the lights on.

J92

Re: 7-Nov-14 World View - Russia's troubles rise, ruble&oil

Postby J92 » Sat Nov 08, 2014 9:59 am

Some countries like Serbia (although Serbia via Yugoslovia was never part of the "bloc") would welcome an alliance with Russia, falsely believing Russia would bankroll them in perpetuity. However, most would not join willingly. They know better. Russia takes more than it gives. Serbia would rue the day they joined the Russian bloc.

The bottom is dropping out of the Russian economy. The price of oil has dropped into the $70s, and Russia has to have oil at $114 a barrel just to break even. In 2009, when oil prices dropped, the Russians were able to sell bonds on the London stock exchange-not this time. Not with captial markets blocked. Russia will default and starve. Winter is coming. The people in the Ukrainian rebel areas don't even have running water or electricity most of the time. Medical care is almost nil. Almost nothing functions. Those people will freeze this winter. Russia is in no condition to cut off the West now, or ever.

Putin does not have a strong hand.

It's time to covertly(or openly) arm the Chechens and openly arm the Ukranians and Georgians. We have to start lighting fires in Russia's house. A heavily armed (or even moderately armed) Ukranian army would blunt Russia's attacks. The Ukraine is a huge country. It's not Moldova. It's vast. Russia couldn't hope to hang on to it.

The Russian army is straining to find combat ready troops. The number of Russian soldiers (officially) is nothing but a number on a piece of paper. A lot of those soldiers are middle aged and unfit. A lot of the new recruits are substandard. The Russian army is not as fit as some people in the West seem to believe.

Sure, they have nuclear weapons, but so do India and Pakistan. Are we going to start kow towing to them, too? Whatever happened to backbone? Do Americans even have them anymore?

Russia has always looked like a giant invincible wall to people inside and outside the country. It's not. As Lenin pointed out to one of his underlings while in exile, that wall is rotten, and a hard push will bring it down. TIME TO GIVE THAT WALL A HARD PUSH.

J92

NoOneImportant

Re: 7-Nov-14 World View - Russia's troubles rise, ruble&oil

Postby NoOneImportant » Sat Nov 08, 2014 11:58 am

Enjoy, Marvyguy, the comments.

Couple of thoughts.

Much as Putin might want to go back in time. He can't. The Soviet Union is gone, and it's gone forever - no matter how much Putin may wish it were not so. If one accepts that, then the questions is: what is happening now? Where is Putin going, and to what end?

Forget the polls. Thugs don't give a damn about the polls - thugs care only about power, look to North Korea as the example. If necessary they - the thugs, i.e., Putin - will execute the pollsters until he gets the polls he desires. The EU's concern about energy is, I think, primarily about the cost of energy not the availability of energy -- but I may be wrong, it's an area that I am not versed in. What is true though is that virtually anything may be had at a sufficient price- that's what black markets tell us. While the EU doesn't desire to have Russia cut off their supply of nat gas, they can, with sufficient cash and time, replace the Russian supply that originates through the Ukraine. Russia, however has a more pressing problem, for Russia is left with few alternatives to the EU for raw cash as the falling price of crude creates an income/cash problem for Putin. More to the point the Chinese-Russian energy deal is an enormous problem for Russia, for,with every falling cent in the cost of oil, the Russian-Chinese energy deal looks less and less desirable to the Chinese, and further aggravates Russia's income problem. When oil was at $100 per bbl the discounted Russian energy deal looked good to the Chinese, at $80 per bbl the deal no longer looks all that good to the Chinese.

Reality in the EU is about being able to sleep at night. The Baltic states, and Poland -- all of Eastern Europe, for that matter -- clearly remember the Warsaw Pact days. The days when anyone might go to sleep one night only to disappear in the middle of the might, never to be heard from again. In those days no one was safe. They - EU - have no desire to return to those times. So what do they do? In the final analysis when dealing with thugs, it ultimately comes down to fight or surrender. I am just not sure whether or not Nato and the EU are still in denial, regarding Putin or not. Nato is starting to look more and more like France's Maginot Line prior to WW-II -- it looked good on paper but ended up being a paper tiger of little practical value. At least so it appears to me, at least without US combat units.

I have personally been surprised that there have developed no overt alliances to aid the Ukrainians. I would have expected Poland, the Baltic states, et al to covertly provide both aid and bodies to the Ukraine - much like happened in the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s. All of the Eastern European states must surely have come to the conclusion that they have little to lose by aiding the Ukraine, for if the Ukraine falls they have to know that they must certainly be eaten next.

Regarding the Russian East I am not sure what to think. It's here that I see Russia's most pressing unacknowleged real jeopardy. Putin either believes that his nuclear deterrent, regarding the Chinese, is sufficient to dissuade the Chinese or he is just grossly ignorant. I don't know which it is, but Putin is a Cold War Warrior so I don't think its ignorance, but you can never tell as authoritarians tend to isolate themselves by executing those who bring bad news, or don't tell them what they want to hear. The recent Russian exercises in the East at least acknowledge that he - Putin - is aware that there is a potential problem in that direction. But it is like Putin is drinking the Chinese Cool Aid, he sees China Eastward looking toward the East and South China Sea, and thus sees, or appears to see little or no Chinese threat to Russia. Yet it is the Chinese who pose the greatest risk to Russia.

Marvyguy search back through some of Guest's posts. He had some definite suggestions regarding Russia. He appeared to have lived there, and appeared to me that he was informed regarding Russia's power structure, and pressing social, and socitial weaknesses.

But, then again what do I know.

J92

Re: 7-Nov-14 World View - Russia's troubles rise, ruble&oil

Postby J92 » Sat Nov 08, 2014 9:34 pm

I'm convinced that the vast majority of Westerners have no true understanding of Russians at all. When Winston Churchill wrote that Russia was a mystery wrapped in an enigma, I honestly wonder what he was thinking about. Was Churchill wondering how such an inept, corrupt, and brutal race could have survived so long? Or was he wondering how the Russians could tolerate being ruled by such obviously bestial people? Putin does rig the elections, but even if he didn't, he would still win (for the moment). The average Russia doesn'tr really care about democracy or freedom. They just want money-and alcohol. The average Russian is a bully and a cheat. (I know; you think i'm being too harsh. I'm not.) Most citizens of countries live vicarously through their country's achievements (through sports victories, economic wealth, or military power). The average person lives a meanilesss life, rarely, if ever, taking any real risks or amounting to anything. Russians, however, are more lowly and cowardly than most. Russians can be easily intimidated or bought off by their leadership. Russians hate everyone, even other ethnic groups of the ex-Soviet Union. They are probably the most xenophobic people on the earth. So, eventhough they live in poverty and are surrounded by alcoholism and drug abuse, they can still feel good about themselves when Russia beats up on the Chechens or Georgiaqns (two races of men that are naturally happy and grounded). Voltaire, probably a hundred years before Churchill was even born, had already pegged the Russians well. Voltaire said (and I'm paraphrasing), that Russia would never be a democracy. It would always be some form of dictatorship. Why? Because Russia is a land of slaves. Russians are not really mysterious people at all. they are quite simple and easy to understand. The mystery is how they managed to stay alive this long. Answer: Oil and mineral wealth in a vast state. The Russians got lucky. But they remain uncouth thugs, little more.

I think the only way to deal with the Russians is to contain them and watch the ethnic Russian race die out. Russia has never been a true democracy. Russians want czars-dictators. They want to be lead by the scruff of their necks. If Putin dies of illness or is overthrown, nothing will really change.

The opposition in Russia is as awful as Putin, perhaps in different ways, but none the less, awful. Even Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky , the "enlightened oligarch" that the West fawns over, is a corrupt thug. Do you really think he became Russia's richest man in the 90s because he was an honest man or a good hearted person? Russians laugh about him because they see him pulling the wool over the eyes of the niave West.

I wish NATO countries would just wake up and smell the coffee. Russia doesn't want to become part of the EU or NATO. Russia wantys to dominate. It was to crush and control. It wants to loot and rape. It wants to murder.

I think the best Russians (and I mean this relatively) were murdered in by Reds almost 90 years ago. Russia in 1914 was a more progressive place than Russia in 2014.

It's best to just contain these people. And then arm every ethnic minority left inside the country and break up what is left of the Russian Federation. Most of the captive races inside the RF are decent. The Chechens held (fairly) clean elections in the 90s before they were invaded. Chechnya was so democratic that the central governemnt had little control of outer areas. Not that that was a good thing... The Georgians have a democratic state. I thin k the Ingush, the Ossettes, etc, would have better functioning democracies than the Russians ever would. Russia is a dystopia.


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