5-Nov-14 World View -- Russian troops approach Ukraine

[John]

5-Nov-14 World View -- Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol

Hezbollah leader brags about Syria war despite spillover into Lebanon

** 5-Nov-14 World View -- Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e141105



Contents:
Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol
Russia uses Hungary to put ethnic Rusins in play against Ukraine
Hezbollah leader brags about Syria war despite spillover into Lebanon


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Mariupol, Russia, Petro Poroshenko,
Alexander Zakharchenko, Minsk protocols, Igor Plotnitsky,
Odessa, Crimea, Vladimir Putin, Hungary, Viktor Orbán,
Rusin, Carpatho-Rusin, Lebanon, Israel,
Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Ashura, Battle of Karbala

[MarvyGuy]

So to continue my thought from yesterday on another post concerning future of Western Europe/Eastern Europe/Russia. It seems that for the moment Western Europe is mostly a shadow having left the US to serve as principle hedge against the USSR (so hardly any defense budgets strained social budgets). I am not really sure they have changed that policy much even in the last 6 years. Europe has no levers against Russia (no military force to speak of, natural gas issues, impending banking system collapse). So Russia works to reestablish a buffer to try and prevent further encroachment by EU/NATO, dumps the Petrodollar, aligns temporarily with China. If Putin can hedge enough in the West will he concentrate a little more on the East? Does he even have time to do this or, as NoOneImportant mentioned in a previous post, if China is happy to let them be distracted Westward while preparing for an incursion into the eastern Russia provinces to secure natural resources. Now would be an opportune moment while everyone else was “looking the other way” and before Russia could pivot East properly. So China – military upgrades, gold purchases/mining, restocking oil reserves, hacking US defenses and US tech from Taiwan, hacking US contractors on supply for forward operations. China seems to be aggressively preparing for war, Russia trying to catch up (sanctions are a problem) and everyone else is in decline or way behind the curve. I could go further but will stop here and look for feedback.

[MarvyGuy]

http://en.itar-tass.com/infographics/7260

Putin ratings at 62.5. Highest was when he annexed Crimea. So one can imagine the tendancy would be to continue encrochment since the Russians support it.
So then we have this http://freebeacon.com/national-security ... n-ukraine/. Related - who knows but timely for sure. With EU in triple dip I wonder how long sanctions will last Hard to imagine that cheerleading by Soros (who is probably too busy trying to patch vote counting software) will keep them in place.

[Coordinated fires]

if China is happy to let them be distracted Westward while preparing for an incursion into the eastern Russia provinces to secure natural resources. Now would be an opportune moment while everyone else was “looking the other way” and before Russia could pivot East properly.

Only problem there is that Russian military doctrine calls for the immediate use of low-yield tactical nuclear strikes against any such incursion.

This has become a frighteningly basic and accepted concept in Russian doctrine of late. Even more frighteningly, if you look at how many of thier contingency plan exercises have been playing out, along with analysis from senior military officers of those exercises, its clear that Russian planners don't seem to think that such use of battlefield nukes would even constitute a "strategic escalation".

There is also the fact that for a very long time, 1/3rd of the Russian army is deployed to the eastern Siberia region and isn't going anywhere. My guess is China knows that it would be very risky trying to get away with anything.

[MarvyGuy]

Well that was written nearly 2 years ago as I was trying to think through John's ongoing prediction of an eventual China/Russia conflict and, at that time, it seemed Russia would not stop but keep progressing westward. Most of what I wrote then still seems good to me today. I suspect China will still make a play for the Russian resources of the East and, at the moment, are doing it by stealth in any case (playing Go with Vlad?)

https://www.rt.com/business/256877-russ ... operation/
http://www.breitbart.com/national-secur ... -to-china/

Of course what is clearer today is that you have NATO/EU encroachment into the Russian sphere plus Soros is funding indirectly Georgia and Ukraine revolutions so I am not surprised at Russian push-back. I suppose I could be accused of giving into Russian propo but I am not sure the western media is being any more honest as we see the overthrow of secular governments and the funneling of funds/arms to "moderate" groups.