16-Oct-14 World View -- Stocks plunge in Greece

[John]

16-Oct-14 World View -- Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed

Wild stock market swings could signal coming Wall St plunge

** 16-Oct-14 World View -- Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e141016



Contents:
Wild stock market swings could signal coming Wall St plunge
Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed
The price of oil plummets along with stocks


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Dow Jones Industrial Average,
Ebola, Robert Shiller, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio,
Greece, Antonis Samaras, Syriza, West Texas Intermediate,
Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran

[Trevor]

I think it's a little premature to declare an imminent crash. It's certainly going to happen, yes, but this isn't the first time we've seen such wild swings. There's a part of me that just wishes to get it over with, since I have the feeling that the longer the crash is delayed, the worse it's ultimately going to be.

Greece is a total basket case and everyone knows it.

Oil consumption is around 5 million barrels a day lower than they were projecting it to be several years ago in this country. It is interesting that even with increased production, its use is not going up very quickly, if at all.

[John]

> I think it's a little premature to declare an imminent
> crash.

All I said is that it's possible, but you've raised an interesting
question. If you don't think that the current situation signals that
an imminent crash is possible, then what would have to be the
conditions before you would be willing to say that an imminent crash
was possible?

[Trevor]

I didn't say it wasn't possible; I just think it's far from certain, since we've repeatedly seen these kinds of swings and there's no way to know which will ultimately be the crash.

To answer your question, however, I would expect that the crash is here if the DJIA falls 15-20% over a period of a few weeks, couple months, similar to what occurred in 1929. For example, if the stock market falls to 12,000-13,000 by December, that's when I would consider the crash imminent.

[Trevor]

Something like this is when I would expect it to be imminent:

Date DJIA (Change) (% of trend) (% of 1929 high)
----------------- -------------- ---------------- ----------------
Tue 1929-09-03 381.17( +0.22%) (255% of 149.33) (100% of 1929-09-03)
Wed 1929-09-04 379.61( -0.41%) (254% of 149.34) ( 99% of 1929-09-03)
Thu 1929-09-05 369.77( -2.59%) (247% of 149.36) ( 97% of 1929-09-03)
Fri 1929-09-06 376.29( +1.76%) (251% of 149.38) ( 98% of 1929-09-03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mon 1929-09-09 374.93( -0.36%) (250% of 149.44) ( 98% of 1929-09-03)
Tue 1929-09-10 367.29( -2.04%) (245% of 149.46) ( 96% of 1929-09-03)
Wed 1929-09-11 370.91( +0.99%) (248% of 149.48) ( 97% of 1929-09-03)
Thu 1929-09-12 366.35( -1.23%) (245% of 149.49) ( 96% of 1929-09-03)
Fri 1929-09-13 366.85( +0.14%) (245% of 149.51) ( 96% of 1929-09-03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mon 1929-09-16 372.39( +1.51%) (248% of 149.57) ( 97% of 1929-09-03)
Tue 1929-09-17 368.52( -1.04%) (246% of 149.59) ( 96% of 1929-09-03)
Wed 1929-09-18 370.90( +0.65%) (247% of 149.61) ( 97% of 1929-09-03)
Thu 1929-09-19 369.97( -0.25%) (247% of 149.63) ( 97% of 1929-09-03)
Fri 1929-09-20 362.05( -2.14%) (241% of 149.64) ( 94% of 1929-09-03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mon 1929-09-23 359.00( -0.84%) (239% of 149.70) ( 94% of 1929-09-03)
Tue 1929-09-24 352.61( -1.78%) (235% of 149.72) ( 92% of 1929-09-03)
Wed 1929-09-25 352.57( -0.01%) (235% of 149.74) ( 92% of 1929-09-03)
Thu 1929-09-26 355.95( +0.96%) (237% of 149.76) ( 93% of 1929-09-03)
Fri 1929-09-27 344.87( -3.11%) (230% of 149.78) ( 90% of 1929-09-03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mon 1929-09-30 343.45( -0.41%) (229% of 149.83) ( 90% of 1929-09-03)
Tue 1929-10-01 342.57( -0.26%) (228% of 149.85) ( 89% of 1929-09-03)
Wed 1929-10-02 344.50( +0.56%) (229% of 149.87) ( 90% of 1929-09-03)
Thu 1929-10-03 329.95( -4.22%) (220% of 149.89) ( 86% of 1929-09-03)
Fri 1929-10-04 325.17( -1.45%) (216% of 149.91) ( 85% of 1929-09-03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mon 1929-10-07 345.72( +6.32%) (230% of 149.96) ( 90% of 1929-09-03)
Tue 1929-10-08 345.00( -0.21%) (230% of 149.98) ( 90% of 1929-09-03)
Wed 1929-10-09 346.66( +0.48%) (231% of 150.00) ( 90% of 1929-09-03)
Thu 1929-10-10 352.86( +1.79%) (235% of 150.02) ( 92% of 1929-09-03)
Fri 1929-10-11 352.69( -0.05%) (235% of 150.04) ( 92% of 1929-09-03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mon 1929-10-14 350.97( -0.49%) (233% of 150.09) ( 92% of 1929-09-03)
Tue 1929-10-15 347.24( -1.06%) (231% of 150.11) ( 91% of 1929-09-03)
Wed 1929-10-16 336.13( -3.20%) (223% of 150.13) ( 88% of 1929-09-03)
Thu 1929-10-17 341.86( +1.70%) (227% of 150.15) ( 89% of 1929-09-03)
Fri 1929-10-18 333.29( -2.51%) (221% of 150.17) ( 87% of 1929-09-03)