26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria
Russia's desperate relationship with China
** 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140926
Contents:
Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria
Russia's desperate relationship with China
Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Russia, Sergei Shoigu, Far East,
Vostok 2014, Ukraine, Malaysian Airlines MH17, Crimea,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, China, Lake Baikal,
Dmitry Medvedev, India, Vietnam
26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014
Re: 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014
Not only that, but many of the people who currently live in the Russian Far East are Chinese immigrants, not Russians. I don't know the exact percentage, but it was over a million twelve years ago, and I'm sure it's significantly higher today. If China decided to invade, there's little the Russians could do to stop them.
With what Russia is spreading in terms of propaganda, Putin is well aware that there are plenty of believe more than willing to believe what he says, even in this country. A reason for this seems to be that the US government is evil, and so anyone willing to oppose them is on the side of justice.
With what Russia is spreading in terms of propaganda, Putin is well aware that there are plenty of believe more than willing to believe what he says, even in this country. A reason for this seems to be that the US government is evil, and so anyone willing to oppose them is on the side of justice.
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NoOneImportant
Re: 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014
Xi is proving himself to be a formidable adversary. Authoritative, quiet, focused, and inscrutable. While digesting this evenings description of Russian events, it occurred to me that if we watch what Russia does, and what China does, that perhaps the following might be feasible.
Much like the 1939 Nazi - Soviet non-aggression pact signed on 23 Aug of 1939, a pact that led to a Nazi invasion of Poland 8 days later, with the Soviets invading Eastern Poland several weeks later. While current events aren't exactly the same a similarity may be seen, Whereas if the Russians and Chinese did not enter into a pact, then at least an understanding between Russia and China might have come out of the events of the Syrian debacle of 2013. That is, there appears to be a cooperative arrangement between Russia, and China regarding Russia's territorial ambitions in the west, and China's territorial ambitions in the east. But what if the entire East/South China Sea is a temporary distraction i.e., theater writ large, targeted to distract the Russians. A distraction targeted not just for the world, but rather to lull Russia into a false sense of security, and not just a false sense of security but to maneuver Russia into an position of international isolation. What if the real Chinese teritorial prize is all of eastern Russia.
China encourages Russian adventurism in the West, and China purports to affect the seizing of some militarily inconsequential islands, and advertises the intention to seize more - the military cost of which is virtually zero. In actuality the real cost to China, from a military perspective, is inconsequential. China encourages Russia to engage in real combat in the west, or at the very least takes a position that protects Russian interests wherever they arise. The states that interest Putin/Russia are: the Ukraine, the Baltic States, and perhaps even Poland; Russia correspondingly invests real resources: combat troops, logistical resources, materiel - all in western adventures. Russia becomes irrevocably committed to real warfare in the west, and China simply takes possession of a preoccupied Russia's entire eastern 1/3 of Russia, and perspectively most of Central Asia - the xxxxstans.
What would Russia's recourse be? Certainly Russia could nuke China, but not without an expectant Chinese retaliation - an event where Russia would certainly be greatly harmed. From a strict demographic point of view the population numbers are quite lop-sided roughly the current populations of Russia and China -- 142 million vs 1.3 billion, respectively i.e., China has a roughly 10:1 population superiority. But would the Russians be so inclined to nuke China? Or would China be able to get away scott-free as it were? Might China even be able to get away with seizing much of central Asia, if they could work out the logistics? Perhaps the reason for China's sending a thousand troops into northern India, and quickly withdraw them, so that an already nervous India is kept off balance; who, in reality, does China have to worry about, or fear - not NATO, and certainly not Obama? Only Russia, and if Russia is inextricably engaged in combat operations in Eastern Europe, what are Putin's choices?
Putin recognizing his jeopardy would account for the Russian withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine, for it certainly isn't a military defeat causing the Russian retreat from Ukraine. As for 100,000 Russian troops exercising in the Russian east striking fear into the heart of the 2.5 million man PLA, I believe that Putin will have to do something a bit more convincing.
Regarding Putin's choices, from a conventional conflict perspective -- non-nuclear -- for the Russians it would mean either engaging in a two front war, or cutting their engagement in the west to focus on saving the east. Should China wait until the Russian commitment in the west is irrevocable, what would Russia's choices be? To that end China has been hacking a significant DOD logistical contractor(s) - extracting logistical know-how without having to self-develop the expertise, and know-how to be used by China in the support of extended military operations taking place outside of mainland China proper. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/pr ... ontractors
Just a few thoughts.
Much like the 1939 Nazi - Soviet non-aggression pact signed on 23 Aug of 1939, a pact that led to a Nazi invasion of Poland 8 days later, with the Soviets invading Eastern Poland several weeks later. While current events aren't exactly the same a similarity may be seen, Whereas if the Russians and Chinese did not enter into a pact, then at least an understanding between Russia and China might have come out of the events of the Syrian debacle of 2013. That is, there appears to be a cooperative arrangement between Russia, and China regarding Russia's territorial ambitions in the west, and China's territorial ambitions in the east. But what if the entire East/South China Sea is a temporary distraction i.e., theater writ large, targeted to distract the Russians. A distraction targeted not just for the world, but rather to lull Russia into a false sense of security, and not just a false sense of security but to maneuver Russia into an position of international isolation. What if the real Chinese teritorial prize is all of eastern Russia.
China encourages Russian adventurism in the West, and China purports to affect the seizing of some militarily inconsequential islands, and advertises the intention to seize more - the military cost of which is virtually zero. In actuality the real cost to China, from a military perspective, is inconsequential. China encourages Russia to engage in real combat in the west, or at the very least takes a position that protects Russian interests wherever they arise. The states that interest Putin/Russia are: the Ukraine, the Baltic States, and perhaps even Poland; Russia correspondingly invests real resources: combat troops, logistical resources, materiel - all in western adventures. Russia becomes irrevocably committed to real warfare in the west, and China simply takes possession of a preoccupied Russia's entire eastern 1/3 of Russia, and perspectively most of Central Asia - the xxxxstans.
What would Russia's recourse be? Certainly Russia could nuke China, but not without an expectant Chinese retaliation - an event where Russia would certainly be greatly harmed. From a strict demographic point of view the population numbers are quite lop-sided roughly the current populations of Russia and China -- 142 million vs 1.3 billion, respectively i.e., China has a roughly 10:1 population superiority. But would the Russians be so inclined to nuke China? Or would China be able to get away scott-free as it were? Might China even be able to get away with seizing much of central Asia, if they could work out the logistics? Perhaps the reason for China's sending a thousand troops into northern India, and quickly withdraw them, so that an already nervous India is kept off balance; who, in reality, does China have to worry about, or fear - not NATO, and certainly not Obama? Only Russia, and if Russia is inextricably engaged in combat operations in Eastern Europe, what are Putin's choices?
Putin recognizing his jeopardy would account for the Russian withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine, for it certainly isn't a military defeat causing the Russian retreat from Ukraine. As for 100,000 Russian troops exercising in the Russian east striking fear into the heart of the 2.5 million man PLA, I believe that Putin will have to do something a bit more convincing.
Regarding Putin's choices, from a conventional conflict perspective -- non-nuclear -- for the Russians it would mean either engaging in a two front war, or cutting their engagement in the west to focus on saving the east. Should China wait until the Russian commitment in the west is irrevocable, what would Russia's choices be? To that end China has been hacking a significant DOD logistical contractor(s) - extracting logistical know-how without having to self-develop the expertise, and know-how to be used by China in the support of extended military operations taking place outside of mainland China proper. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/pr ... ontractors
Just a few thoughts.
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Guest
Re: 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014
Isn't half the Russian army Muslim? That will have some effect, won't it?
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NoOneImportant
Re: 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014
Regarding Muslims and the Russian Army... how should I know? 
Now having said that, the Muslims from South Central Asia are a problem for both Russia, and China. Both Russia, and China have attempted to dilute the effect of large Muslim populations upon the culture of the area that they control -- the Russians by the insertion of ethnic Russians into Kazakhstan,and other former Soviet Republics, and the Chinese by attempting to insert large numbers of Han Chinese into the Xinjiang province now populated by Uyghurs and Han Chinese almost evenly split at rough 40% each of the 21 million population in Western China - XinJiang. Neither, the Russians, nor the Chinese actions, it seems to me, have achieved what might be called a resounding success -- rather more like they have kept things to a low boil -- that is, only a few people get murdered each year, instead of a lot of people getting murdered by yearly terrorist events. It should be noted that, in the totalitarian mind, there are few cultural problems that cannot be affected by the wholesale murder of several hundred thousand indigenous peoples, as the Chinese have done in Tibet, or millions, as was done mid 20th Century in China's recent past, given that the murder of several hundred thousand people does not do the trick.
While the musings above in the prior posting are potentially possible, they are, with the exception of seizing the Central Asian Republics, independent of an issue with Islam. Though initially skeptical, I have become convinced by John that the ultimate coming conflict will be a secular-religious war. With secular forces aligned with Sunni Muslims on one side, and other secular forces aligned with Shia Muslims on the other side. The Muslims have a long brutal history of intransigence, murder, and barbarity - it is what Islam does. Accommodation is not a term that Muslims are intimately familiar with, as exemplified by ISIS current actions in Iraq and Syria. It should be noted that it takes some doing to eclipse the monstrous actions of Assad, and bump him from the front page of international news headlines, yet that is exactly what ISIS has done. The monstrous actions of ISIS taken against innocent Christian communities that are millennia old, the public beheading of helpless innocent prisoners, all go a long way to moderate the scrutiny of the barbarity, torture, and murder routinely practiced by Assad on his own people, over the last three years -- it becomes, as is often the case in life, a question of the lesser of evils. It is a segment of the world that even after millennia remains on the verge of the abyss.
Now having said that, the Muslims from South Central Asia are a problem for both Russia, and China. Both Russia, and China have attempted to dilute the effect of large Muslim populations upon the culture of the area that they control -- the Russians by the insertion of ethnic Russians into Kazakhstan,and other former Soviet Republics, and the Chinese by attempting to insert large numbers of Han Chinese into the Xinjiang province now populated by Uyghurs and Han Chinese almost evenly split at rough 40% each of the 21 million population in Western China - XinJiang. Neither, the Russians, nor the Chinese actions, it seems to me, have achieved what might be called a resounding success -- rather more like they have kept things to a low boil -- that is, only a few people get murdered each year, instead of a lot of people getting murdered by yearly terrorist events. It should be noted that, in the totalitarian mind, there are few cultural problems that cannot be affected by the wholesale murder of several hundred thousand indigenous peoples, as the Chinese have done in Tibet, or millions, as was done mid 20th Century in China's recent past, given that the murder of several hundred thousand people does not do the trick.
While the musings above in the prior posting are potentially possible, they are, with the exception of seizing the Central Asian Republics, independent of an issue with Islam. Though initially skeptical, I have become convinced by John that the ultimate coming conflict will be a secular-religious war. With secular forces aligned with Sunni Muslims on one side, and other secular forces aligned with Shia Muslims on the other side. The Muslims have a long brutal history of intransigence, murder, and barbarity - it is what Islam does. Accommodation is not a term that Muslims are intimately familiar with, as exemplified by ISIS current actions in Iraq and Syria. It should be noted that it takes some doing to eclipse the monstrous actions of Assad, and bump him from the front page of international news headlines, yet that is exactly what ISIS has done. The monstrous actions of ISIS taken against innocent Christian communities that are millennia old, the public beheading of helpless innocent prisoners, all go a long way to moderate the scrutiny of the barbarity, torture, and murder routinely practiced by Assad on his own people, over the last three years -- it becomes, as is often the case in life, a question of the lesser of evils. It is a segment of the world that even after millennia remains on the verge of the abyss.
Re: 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014
The issue of Muslims in the army is a big problem for Russia. As I
recall, the army doesn't draft Caucasians, for fear of causing civil
unrest. But there's unrest anyway, because when the army is sent into
the North Caucasus to deal with some problem, it's always a bunch of
Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians dealing with a population of Muslim
Caucasians. So there's a big catch-22 for the army. Also, Russia's
army is smaller than the desired size, so there's public pressure to
draft Caucasians from that point of view. I forget how all this is
resolved these days, but it's a major sore spot.
John
recall, the army doesn't draft Caucasians, for fear of causing civil
unrest. But there's unrest anyway, because when the army is sent into
the North Caucasus to deal with some problem, it's always a bunch of
Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians dealing with a population of Muslim
Caucasians. So there's a big catch-22 for the army. Also, Russia's
army is smaller than the desired size, so there's public pressure to
draft Caucasians from that point of view. I forget how all this is
resolved these days, but it's a major sore spot.
John
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