1-Aug-14 World View-The Gaza ceasefire: Things to watch for

[John]

1-Aug-14 World View -- The Gaza ceasefire: Things to watch for


The Rafah crossing becomes a major issue in the Gaza war

** 1-Aug-14 World View -- The Gaza ceasefire: Things to watch for
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140801



Contents:
The Gaza ceasefire: Things to watch for
Questions about the Palestinian delegation to the ceasefire talks
The Rafah crossing becomes a major issue in the Gaza war
Report: Hamas planned massive attack through tunnels on Israeli citizens


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, John Kerry, Ban Ki-moon, Israel, Gaza,
Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Fatah,
Egypt, Rafah border crossing, Muslim Brotherhood

[Trevor]

I would add a couple of things to that list, chiefly what the response of Israel's neighbors will be. I highly doubt Hamas' supporters are going to let them be completely eradicated; certainly Iran and Qatar aren't going to let that happen. The second is the possibility that Palestinians from the West Bank will join in the fight, which would make things worse. So far, they've had riots, protests, and a few deaths, but if this continues, that could change. Abbas is almost 80 years old and is becoming increasingly irrelevant.

The third possible complication is Hezbollah, which is much better armed and trained than Hamas is. True, they've got a lot of their resources tied up in Assad's war, but they have many members and if Hamas is on the verge of destruction, Iran could push them to join in the fight.

I've read analysis from multiple sources and most of them say that to truly destroy all of Hamas' war-making capability, it would require months of difficult fighting with heavy casualties, in addition to the difficulty of finding an alternative to Hamas. I'm not sure if Israel is willing to go quite that far yet.

[Guest]

Will their economy hold out? War is expensive. I can't believe that pilgrims will continue to visit in the midst of all this. Also, boycotts and embargoes will soon start. The Palestinians are used to being poor and hungry. Israelis are not.