31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential

[John]

31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia

** 31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140731


Contents:
The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides
Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Israel, Hamas, United Nations,
Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Afghanistan, Enduring Brotherhood 2014,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO

[vincecate]

Thus, in a sense, this war has become "existential" for both sides. Neither side can back down, which logically implies that the war will continue for some time to come, to the point of exhaustion.

Hamas only has a finite number of rockets and tunnels. Once these are gone this will end.

If 1 out of 100 people in Gaza are so unhappy with Hamas that they will help the IDF get rid of them, things get easy for IDF. Gaza was a Democracy when they elected Hamas and now they have a totalitarian government. My guess is that more than 1 in 100 is very unhappy with Hamas. The IDF seems to be getting a lot of help from locals.

[John]

Thus, in a sense, this war has become "existential" for both sides. Neither side can back down, which logically implies that the war will continue for some time to come, to the point of exhaustion.

Hamas only has a finite number of rockets and tunnels. Once these are gone this will end.

If 1 out of 100 people in Gaza are so unhappy with Hamas that they will help the IDF get rid of them, things get easy for IDF. Gaza was a Democracy when they elected Hamas and now they have a totalitarian government. My guess is that more than 1 in 100 is very unhappy with Hamas. The IDF seems to be getting a lot of help from locals.

Do you have anything that supports your claim?

Any Palestinian that helps the IDF would be beaten and shot.

[vincecate]

Do you have anything that supports your claim?

Any Palestinian that helps the IDF would be beaten and shot.

The Palestinians that help the IDF do not tell anyone.

That "Hamas has executed more than 30 suspected collaborators in the Gaza Strip over the past few days" while they don't know who all of the spies are shows something.

"The sources said that many of the suspects were caught with weapons, telephones, and SIM cards from the Israeli cell provider Orange."

If you have a tinny sim card it would be easy to hide. It could use encryption that Hamas could not break. You put it in your phone for only a minute while you send a text message and then hide it again. Most of the spies will not get caught. They would not do it if most were caught and killed.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-said ... th-israel/

And 20 palastinians complained about the war and were shot on the spot by Hamas.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014 ... rs-in-Gaza

Hamas missiles that landed in Gaza have probably killed more Gazans than the total Israelis killed, and far more than have been killed by Hamas missiles. http://www.worldtribune.com/2014/07/30/ ... aza-strip/

Hamas killed more Gazans in digging the tunnels than total Israelis killed.
http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Poli ... mas-369138

Hamas killing of protestor and spys is more than total Israelis killed.
Spending what is for Gaza a lot of money on tunnels that have not been any real use.

This is the kind of government that does not get the support of a full 100% of the people.

Remember, after Egypt voted in the Muslim Brotherhood they did not like what they did and threw them out. Gaza has to have at least part of the population that is really not happy with Hamas.

If the IDF tells people that "after we blow up the last tunnel we will leave" there will be Gazans that tell them where tunnels are just so the IDF can finish and go home, so their own life can get back to normal sooner.

[John]

The analogy to Egypt is irrelevant, because Egypt is not in the midst
of an existential war during a generational crisis era.

Prior to the war, Hamas was extremely unpopular. The war has unified
the Gaza / Palestinian population behind Hamas, as always happens
during an existential war during a generational crisis era. That
means that today if you're a Gazan helping the enemy, then you'll be
treating as a full-fledged traitor, and you'll be beaten, tortured and
killed.

[vincecate]

I predict that in the next 10 days the IDF says they think they have blown up all the tunnels and pulls out. By then there will be very few rockets launching from Gaza each day (already averaging far less than the initial 100+ per day). I expect they keep up the air attack as long as the missiles come with the offer to stop when the missiles stop. At some point Hamas will stop.

"Major General Sami Turgeman, chief of Israeli forces in Gaza, said on Wednesday they were "but a few days away from destroying all the attack tunnels". The army said 32 of the secret passages had been found so far and half of them blown up."

http://kfgo.com/news/articles/2014/jul/ ... nnel-hunt/

And they are saying that 85% of tunnels are blown up already.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/By-April-I ... war-369663

[Guest]

To the guy stockpiling food in a cave on a desert island: You forgot to quote something from MEMRI.

[vincecate]

Prior to the war, Hamas was extremely unpopular. The war has unified
the Gaza / Palestinian population behind Hamas, as always happens
during an existential war during a generational crisis era.

There is no chance that Israel wipes Gaza out of existance. They are clearly not aiming to do that. There is some chance that Hamas does not survive, but that depends on the support or animosity from the local population. When they shoot 20 people for saying they don't like the war, it is clearly an evil totalitarian government. Generally evil totalitarian governments don't get full support of the population.

[anonymous1]

"Israel received almost worldwide condemnation on Wednesday for air strikes on a crowded Gaza marketplace and on a United Nations shelter, killing or wounding over 100 innocent civilians, including women and children."

There is a BIG 'allegedly' in front of that one. I'm surprised its treated as fact here. The true story will probably never be heard as dying kids trumps history. Plus it helps to have "non-biased" (wink-wink) making claims, pointing fingers without proven facts:

http://pamelageller.com/2014/07/proof-i ... d-15.html/

This war is way more than rockets, bombs, shells and tunnels. Its about who get the most support for unsubstantiated views the quickest. War is not in a vacuum but having all these "cooks, or kooks rather, in the kitchen" makes it challenging. I have no doubt it will all work out in the end. I'm glad its not yet spilled over to US yet but will.

Israel is cursed by the world because they have less victims. Everyone tells Israel to be the big man and ignore the rockets. The Iron Dome thing is working out for them. Let Hamas try to kill people all they want. 1600 rockets fired and many armed guerrilla attacks against any other nation's sovereignty other than Israel would be quickly stopped. But for Israel, maybe they deserve it. Any persons who is against Israel for defending themselves is not rational. If the same happened to their own home, they would be in uproar! You have to admit that there is definitely some bias against them, Israel.

There is rumor that the son of Hamas leader person is starting up new ISIS-type of group calling Hamas a bunch of sissy-pants, that more radical actions need to be taken. I have also heard that some member has switched sides and become evangelical but seems to be still alive so have doubt on that one given those that leave Islam tend to be targets.

[mooreupp]

I do love this blog a lot for giving a lot better context to events. It's easy to see all the issues between the Israelis and Palestinians as the same, but we can see the bigger trends with Generational Dynamics.

I'm not sure if this is the huge war now between them or not, but honestly for Israel it might be better if it is. Right now, no one else is involved. If you turn this bigger and that can change.