21-Jul-14 World View -- Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels

[John]

21-Jul-14 World View -- Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels moves into population centers

ISIS evicts Christians and Kurds from Mosul Iraq as new bomb blasts hit Baghdad

** 21-Jul-14 World View -- Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels moves into population centers
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140721



Contents:
Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels moves into population centers
Growing Palestinian military capabilities raise questions of Israel's objectives
ISIS evicts Christians and Kurds from Mosul Iraq as new bomb blasts hit Baghdad


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Hamas, Ezz Al-Din Qassam Brigades,
Quds Brigades, Islamic Jihad Movement,
Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, PFLP,
National Resistance Brigades, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, DFLP,
Mujahideen Brigades, Fatah, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Iran, Muslim Brotherhood,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Mosul, Baghdad

[vincecate]

There's increasingly a question of what Israel's objectives are. It's becoming apparent that it would take at least several weeks (or months) of aggressive military action to destroy the tunnels, killing tens or hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians, but even then, it's likely that not all the tunnels would be destroyed. And even if they were, the tunnels could be rebuilt within a few months. So what's Israel's objective?
[...]

Following the "Egyptian Revolution" that began with on January 25, 2011, overthrowing Egypt's long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak, Hamas was able to smuggle large amounts of weapons provided by Iran into Gaza. According to one high-level Hamas official, this was the "golden era" of weapons smuggling:

While the Muslim Brotherhood ran Egypt, Hamas was able to bring in lots of rockets from Iran. Estimate is that they had about 10,000 of them. Around 2,000 have been fired and around 3,000 destroyed, so about half are gone already.

Hamas likes having these rockets to trouble Israel. And Israel does not want to have to keep running to bomb shelters ever day. Since Hamas can not easily get more rockets now that Egypt is not cooperating, it is a very useful objective for Israel to destroy as many rockets as possible. Since rockets can be down in tunnels, they have to go after the tunnels. My guess is when they get down to about the last 1,000 rockets that Hamas will make a deal. This way they could at least launch a few from time to time, but by the end of this they won't be able to do 100 rockets a day for long any more.

But with half gone and less than 500 dead I don't see how you get to tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands dead.

Also, those tunnels are the result of years of work and can not be replaced within a few months. Hamas does not have the money they used to, so it could easily take them longer to rebuild.

[vincecate]

Also, those tunnels are the result of years of work and can not be replaced within a few months. Hamas does not have the money they used to, so it could easily take them longer to rebuild.

"Last year, the IDF uncovered a tunnel from Gaza to Israel that was 59ft (18 metres) underground, extended for a mile (1.6km) and was constructed using 500 tonnes of concrete and cement."

Israel has a 1 km wide "buffer zone" around Gaza. I believe these tunnels are dug by hand. They probably don't have machines and also it would be easier for Israel to detect the noise of machines. They use cement to line the tunnels. This is a lot of work. Israel will probably widden the buffer zone so it will take an even longer tunnel in the future.

I have some experience with digging underground. It really is a lot of work. Even if the ground is not too hard you still have to hall away all the dirt. If Israel makes the buffer zone 2 km wide then Hamas has to hall twice as much dirt on average twice as far, so it will be about 4 times the work. If it took 2 years last time, it could be closer to 8 years. Israel will get better and better at detecting these tunnels. Hamas may never make it all the way under the buffer zone undetected in the future. In any case, it will not just be a couple months to make new tunnels.

http://offshore.com.ai/vince/cave/

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... d-invasion

[vincecate]

"The cost of excavating, reinforcing and maintaining each tunnel is approximately $1 million, and as far as is now known, dozens of such quality tunnels were dug along the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, from the northernmost part of the territory all the way to the south."

The GDP per capita in Gaza is around $1,000 USD/year. So each tunnel is comparable to the yearly earnings of 1,000 people. Some people are starting to think that Hamas has spent far too much on underground Gaza and not enough on above ground Gaza.


http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... lfare.html#

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/poli ... since-2007

[vincecate]

Here is an interesting one abour the tunnels. It mentions that the offensive ones are dug by hand to avoid detection and take 2 or3 years to dig.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... CMP=twt_gu