1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea
Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy
** 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140601
Contents:
Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy
Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea
Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Italy, Syria, Libya, Matteo Renzi,
Greece, Malta, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Vietnam, Philippines,
Chuck Hagel, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Crimea, Ukraine,
Abraham Lincoln, China, Wang Guanzhong, Zhu Chenghu
1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
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Guest
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
I can see America bailing on Asia. If war breaks out, Asia, the factory of the world, will blow itself to pieces. America and Europe could use this as a chance to rebuild their manufacturing bases. Albeit, with automation, computers, and robots, fewer workers will be needed, but a wrecked Asia will be in position to produce much of anything (except for the dead and dying and diseases). Korea and Japan would give good accounts of themselves in a war. I don't think Chiuna would achieve the outright victory they might expect. A string of Pyrrhic victories at best. Defeat is still a possibility. I also see mass starvation and death across all of Asia.
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NoOneImportant
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
A WAG for Asia's percentage of the world's semiconductor production would be roughly 60 - 80%. Virtually all of the contract semiconductor business, as of the year 2005, was resident in Asia - I haven't been close to that business for a while. Should Asia blow itself up Intel and AMD, the primary PC processor manufacturers, but not the primary processor manufacturers for small embedded applications might be able to continue to fabricate the dice for automation applications (the actual silicon within the packages). But, virtually all of the packaging plastic, the hundreds of different lead-frames, and the packaging, and test of completed devices now comes from and takes place in Asia. Blow them up, and no one will be making much of anything anywhere in the world that contains semiconductors within it - presuming that the American cities containing those fab facilities remain intact.
China's deep water Navy, including China's two or three "boomer" subs are not in existence for an Asian conflict, they are in place specifically to rain nuclear death down upon American cities. Should conflict erupt in Asia, China will have to ask itself immediately: will America defend Asia? China's comments yesterday regarding China being a friend to friends, and a concerted enemy to any enemy should be taken to heart. As Benjamin Netenyahu stated at the UN: "when someone tells you that they will kill you, you should believe them." War, and a first strike is the only answer that China can come to in a world where a weak America may be confronted with overt conflict. As John has noted here multiple times (paraphrasing, my understanding, not necessarily John's exact words): "... in the face of naked aggression, at some point the the weak, foolish, and ill prepared Obama must be moved to action, and forced to act; the time and place of that action may not be a time, or a place of his choosing..."
This is not WW-II, Korea, Vietnam, or the Middle East; America has palpable, tangible, and real jeopardy - this is not a video game. In addition to China, the North Koreans now have the ability to reach many American cities with nuke capable missiles. Once the first mushroom sprouts over an American city, Russia will have to decide what to do. Neutrality would be best for Russia, to permit them time to sort out the consequences of those dire events, but circumstances may not give them that option.
The old addage: "The dogs of war" exists because once loosed, no once controls them. Be very careful of what you wish for, as you may receive it. Understand in any total Asian conflict millions, perhaps tens of millions, and possibly hundreds of millions of real human beings will be horribly erased from existence - this is reality on a global scale.
Isn't the world a wonderful place with the weak America that Obama, and Kerry have given us - and America chose these narcissists, and the suicidal twice, and Americans chose them all for the price of a cell phone. It gives practical meaning to GD.
China's deep water Navy, including China's two or three "boomer" subs are not in existence for an Asian conflict, they are in place specifically to rain nuclear death down upon American cities. Should conflict erupt in Asia, China will have to ask itself immediately: will America defend Asia? China's comments yesterday regarding China being a friend to friends, and a concerted enemy to any enemy should be taken to heart. As Benjamin Netenyahu stated at the UN: "when someone tells you that they will kill you, you should believe them." War, and a first strike is the only answer that China can come to in a world where a weak America may be confronted with overt conflict. As John has noted here multiple times (paraphrasing, my understanding, not necessarily John's exact words): "... in the face of naked aggression, at some point the the weak, foolish, and ill prepared Obama must be moved to action, and forced to act; the time and place of that action may not be a time, or a place of his choosing..."
This is not WW-II, Korea, Vietnam, or the Middle East; America has palpable, tangible, and real jeopardy - this is not a video game. In addition to China, the North Koreans now have the ability to reach many American cities with nuke capable missiles. Once the first mushroom sprouts over an American city, Russia will have to decide what to do. Neutrality would be best for Russia, to permit them time to sort out the consequences of those dire events, but circumstances may not give them that option.
The old addage: "The dogs of war" exists because once loosed, no once controls them. Be very careful of what you wish for, as you may receive it. Understand in any total Asian conflict millions, perhaps tens of millions, and possibly hundreds of millions of real human beings will be horribly erased from existence - this is reality on a global scale.
Isn't the world a wonderful place with the weak America that Obama, and Kerry have given us - and America chose these narcissists, and the suicidal twice, and Americans chose them all for the price of a cell phone. It gives practical meaning to GD.
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
to - NoOneImportant - The problem, generally speaking, is that people do not study history, and "this time it is different". Or the ignorant determine events, hence the same old same old.
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NoOneImportant
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
Roger that Gerald.
I think that you have it correct in that people don't truly study history - but, over time I have come to believe that there is "knowing" history, and there is "understanding" history. The first is shallow and academic, the second is much deeper, and I am not sure that you can obtain the understanding without having lived it - GD. As you noted those who do study history, indeed and in fact, always think that "this time it is different." And to some extent every time it is different. These aspects of GD (the not just knowing, but the understanding of history) are the most difficult part of GD. While you may read about history, and say: "...yes I know what happened...." That knowing is the shallow part; reality appears to be that taken holistically, that is as a whole society, there is no substitute for the Generational memory created by participating in the necessary Generational carnage (from whence you get a complete understanding of man's inhumanity to man, and how bad it can get). As it is only by participation in the Generational catastrophe that the society, as a whole, creates and actualizes the Generational memory. A memory that guides future actions and thus seeks to avoid a repeat of similar Generational catastrophic event(s). And by that Generational memory similar catastrophe's are avoided, at least until those who hold those memories die out every 40 - 70 years; where upon history is destined to repeat itself. It repeats itself as there is no essence of what that history really (in human terms) means(understanding.) And when the Generational memory fades, events repeat themselves, as new history ( not exactly the same as in the past,) but in some manner that leads again ultimately to some wholesale carnage that all "survivors" take to heart (the Generational memory - understanding) for as long as they're alive (for now they truly understand.)
I think that you have it correct in that people don't truly study history - but, over time I have come to believe that there is "knowing" history, and there is "understanding" history. The first is shallow and academic, the second is much deeper, and I am not sure that you can obtain the understanding without having lived it - GD. As you noted those who do study history, indeed and in fact, always think that "this time it is different." And to some extent every time it is different. These aspects of GD (the not just knowing, but the understanding of history) are the most difficult part of GD. While you may read about history, and say: "...yes I know what happened...." That knowing is the shallow part; reality appears to be that taken holistically, that is as a whole society, there is no substitute for the Generational memory created by participating in the necessary Generational carnage (from whence you get a complete understanding of man's inhumanity to man, and how bad it can get). As it is only by participation in the Generational catastrophe that the society, as a whole, creates and actualizes the Generational memory. A memory that guides future actions and thus seeks to avoid a repeat of similar Generational catastrophic event(s). And by that Generational memory similar catastrophe's are avoided, at least until those who hold those memories die out every 40 - 70 years; where upon history is destined to repeat itself. It repeats itself as there is no essence of what that history really (in human terms) means(understanding.) And when the Generational memory fades, events repeat themselves, as new history ( not exactly the same as in the past,) but in some manner that leads again ultimately to some wholesale carnage that all "survivors" take to heart (the Generational memory - understanding) for as long as they're alive (for now they truly understand.)
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
to -- No One Important --
The problem is bigger than that. How do you educate people about what they have forgotten? Because only today is important ?. The past and the future is irreverent, --- I want mine NOW! Think not? --- An example, in Tahiti , where I spent some time, the natives only think of "today". "Yesterday" is gone so forget about it. "tomorrow" is not yet here so don't think about it. "today" is the only thing that is important. How do you run a complex society on that basis? Look around, how many societies think or act other wise? With long range planning you can control many things, and make people willing slaves.
Sorry,
cheers
The problem is bigger than that. How do you educate people about what they have forgotten? Because only today is important ?. The past and the future is irreverent, --- I want mine NOW! Think not? --- An example, in Tahiti , where I spent some time, the natives only think of "today". "Yesterday" is gone so forget about it. "tomorrow" is not yet here so don't think about it. "today" is the only thing that is important. How do you run a complex society on that basis? Look around, how many societies think or act other wise? With long range planning you can control many things, and make people willing slaves.
Sorry,
cheers
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Guest
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
I know many like to trash Obama as a coward or being weak on foreign policy issues, but I think some people here are missing an important point: Obama seems to be merely doing what the majority of Americans want. The average American doesn't want to fight anymore wars. America is bankrupt and exhausted. If the average American is wrong on foreign policy, then the country will pay dearly for it. If the Republicans think Obama is wrong, then they had better do a better job at changing people's minds.
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
Guest wrote: > I know many like to trash Obama as a coward or being weak on
> foreign policy issues, but I think some people here are missing an
> important point: Obama seems to be merely doing what the majority
> of Americans want. The average American doesn't want to fight
> anymore wars. America is bankrupt and exhausted. If the average
> American is wrong on foreign policy, then the country will pay
> dearly for it. If the Republicans think Obama is wrong, then they
> had better do a better job at changing people's minds.
There's a cause and effect issue here. Obama is so contemptuous of
American values and America's role as policeman of the world that it
may simply be that his adoring voters, most of whom couldn't find
China, Russia or Ukraine on a map, are taking the path of least
resistance and following his lead.
It's also well to remember that Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of
Hitler was the most popular thing that any British PM has ever done,
according to the polls.
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NoOneImportant
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
Gerald, the question you ask is complex. I am preparing an answer but it will take me a day or two.
Guest wrote:
To illustrate: we'll presume that you work, further we'll presume that you don't like your work. So why do you continue to get up each and every day and go to a place to do what you don't care for? The answer is simple: you know the work, and are familiar with it. The work, even though you may not care for doing it, provides you with the cash necessary to conduct your daily life. The essence is: there are desires, and there are things that are necessary. The desirable is oft subordinated to the necessary, that is there are things more important than self, more important than what I want.
So it boils down, in the final analysis, to making choices. There are three criterion germane to moral decision making: 1.) Is the contemplated action moral - is it good, and worthy of us and of our self-sacrifice; 2.) Is there a reasonable expectation of a successful outcome of the prospective action; 3.) Was the resultant action taken successful.
John's explanation of Chamberlain's actions taken at Munich failed the first two criterion. Chamberlain's action was nether moral, nor, given Hitler's past record, had he any right to expect a successful outcome. Yet Chamberlain signed the "Peace-in-our-time Munich accord and sacrificed millions of Czechs, and ultimately Europeans to Nazi aggression. Why? Because he - Chamberlain - hoped that Hitler would do in the future what he had not done in the past. As John noted, what the world, would soon learn, post-Munich, was that hope is not a plan. Hope is not a policy. Hope without a plan, hope without anticipated action is less than adolescent, it's juvenile, it's childish - for adults to do it is at best negligent, and at worst simply stupid. That is why Chamberlain was replaced by Winston Churchill as British Prime Minister, even though post Germany's invasion of Poland there was no more virulent anti-Nazi in the entire British government than Nevil Chamberlain - his judgment just couldn't be trusted.
In business there is an adage: "Nothing succeeds like success." The message is: do the little things well, and the big things will take care of themselves. But little things have no "flash", they have no glitz - they are simply hard, and often tedious work. In the final analysis no one wants to follow a looser. No one wants to follow an intellectually and morally empty Joe Cool to his death in a war that Joe Cool has no moral commitment to. No one wants to die or to be permanently maimed so that Joe Cool can look glib, and slick on TV. Especially when Joe Cool apparently pathologically lies, and has gone to great lengths to hide all the records of his past performance; records that might permit one to make an "objective" assessment of just how Joe Cool has performed in the past. For me, insofar as people are concerned, past performance is future performance. Sealing one's records would lead one to believe that he who has sealed his records desired to hide something. The most damning thing to hide might be objective evidence that he was mediocre, thus leading to an assessment that he had become used to failure, and mediocre objective performance. Should that be the case, that would lead me to believe that is how he would perform in the future - mediocre.
Regarding American bankruptcy there was no reasonable expectation that a doubling of the national debt would have any other outcome other than financial catastrophe. Who with any business experience would expect a favorable outcome from the squandering of over a trillion dollars on expenditures that created no new businesses, no new markets, no new customers; an expenditure that resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in patently illegal "political contributions.;" contributions that have been investigated by no one.
You speak of Americans tiring of war. If you tire of war all you need do is surrender. The war will end, and possibly you with it - at your enemies discretion not your own, the showers will await you. Contrary to what Joe Cool may allude to war is not a game, there are no time-outs, there are no half-times, war is for real, war is for life and death it is for keeps. Tired of war, find an aggressive true believer and have him lead you on to victory - nothing succeeds like success.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/frontp ... ite-house/
Guest wrote:
What you describe is analogous to driving through life looking in the rear-view mirror. Logically it makes perfect sense! You know what's back there, as you have "already seen it"; you know that there is no hidden jeopardy, as you experienced none when you passed that way. So from a "feel-good" perspective then we should all "drive" through life caring only about what has caused us no past difficulties. We all know that driving through life looking only in the rear-view mirror boarders on the insane; it simply ignores the future - the windshield - and the risks we must anticipate, and navigate as the future approaches us and becomes the present - a very scary proposition, as in the future there is great uncertainty. While the rear-view mirror represents "feel-good," it is past; as such it's primary importance lies in in personal reflection, that is in doing "failure analysis", in educating us, in preparing us to negotiate new upcoming and future events; so the rear-view mirror has its place.Obama seems to be merely doing what the majority of Americans want. The average American doesn't want to fight anymore wars. America is bankrupt and exhausted.
To illustrate: we'll presume that you work, further we'll presume that you don't like your work. So why do you continue to get up each and every day and go to a place to do what you don't care for? The answer is simple: you know the work, and are familiar with it. The work, even though you may not care for doing it, provides you with the cash necessary to conduct your daily life. The essence is: there are desires, and there are things that are necessary. The desirable is oft subordinated to the necessary, that is there are things more important than self, more important than what I want.
So it boils down, in the final analysis, to making choices. There are three criterion germane to moral decision making: 1.) Is the contemplated action moral - is it good, and worthy of us and of our self-sacrifice; 2.) Is there a reasonable expectation of a successful outcome of the prospective action; 3.) Was the resultant action taken successful.
John's explanation of Chamberlain's actions taken at Munich failed the first two criterion. Chamberlain's action was nether moral, nor, given Hitler's past record, had he any right to expect a successful outcome. Yet Chamberlain signed the "Peace-in-our-time Munich accord and sacrificed millions of Czechs, and ultimately Europeans to Nazi aggression. Why? Because he - Chamberlain - hoped that Hitler would do in the future what he had not done in the past. As John noted, what the world, would soon learn, post-Munich, was that hope is not a plan. Hope is not a policy. Hope without a plan, hope without anticipated action is less than adolescent, it's juvenile, it's childish - for adults to do it is at best negligent, and at worst simply stupid. That is why Chamberlain was replaced by Winston Churchill as British Prime Minister, even though post Germany's invasion of Poland there was no more virulent anti-Nazi in the entire British government than Nevil Chamberlain - his judgment just couldn't be trusted.
In business there is an adage: "Nothing succeeds like success." The message is: do the little things well, and the big things will take care of themselves. But little things have no "flash", they have no glitz - they are simply hard, and often tedious work. In the final analysis no one wants to follow a looser. No one wants to follow an intellectually and morally empty Joe Cool to his death in a war that Joe Cool has no moral commitment to. No one wants to die or to be permanently maimed so that Joe Cool can look glib, and slick on TV. Especially when Joe Cool apparently pathologically lies, and has gone to great lengths to hide all the records of his past performance; records that might permit one to make an "objective" assessment of just how Joe Cool has performed in the past. For me, insofar as people are concerned, past performance is future performance. Sealing one's records would lead one to believe that he who has sealed his records desired to hide something. The most damning thing to hide might be objective evidence that he was mediocre, thus leading to an assessment that he had become used to failure, and mediocre objective performance. Should that be the case, that would lead me to believe that is how he would perform in the future - mediocre.
Regarding American bankruptcy there was no reasonable expectation that a doubling of the national debt would have any other outcome other than financial catastrophe. Who with any business experience would expect a favorable outcome from the squandering of over a trillion dollars on expenditures that created no new businesses, no new markets, no new customers; an expenditure that resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in patently illegal "political contributions.;" contributions that have been investigated by no one.
You speak of Americans tiring of war. If you tire of war all you need do is surrender. The war will end, and possibly you with it - at your enemies discretion not your own, the showers will await you. Contrary to what Joe Cool may allude to war is not a game, there are no time-outs, there are no half-times, war is for real, war is for life and death it is for keeps. Tired of war, find an aggressive true believer and have him lead you on to victory - nothing succeeds like success.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/frontp ... ite-house/
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Guest
Re: 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China
Personally, I think American intervention (I speak as an American) is sometimes good: Bosnia (albeit too late) and Kosova. I think the invasion of Iraq and the criminally brutal "War on Terror" have been a disaster. When I was young, America was a popular country (even in places that now seem to hate us). We are dying of self-inflicted wounds.
I agree with John about Chamberlain. He did what the general populace wanted him to do. And a lot of historians now argue that had he not signed the agreement, a woefully unprepared England would have perished quickly against Germany. The point I was trying to make is that we live in a democracy, and the government needs to heed (at least occasionally) the popular will. I know the US government has been ignoring voters for awhile, but with our current economic (and even societal ) crisis, the engine is running down.
Obama should never have been elected. But the alternative was McCain-a reckless warmonger who would have most likely lead the country into a dozen other wars by now. Obama captured the zeitgeist. People were exhausted. They wanted change. They got it. Personally, when I speak of intervention on any front (Ukraine, Syria, etc.), people balk. The usual response is now: "Not our problem." People need to be lead. If we have no one left in this country who can explain what has to be done and why, and get people to follow him, we deserve to fold.
I have a history degree (from a military school), and I agree with a lot of what is written on these boards. Unfortunately, the average American doesn't. Yes, the people of Troy died filled with terrible regret. The Germans perished in Berlin filled with regret and despair as well. The average person doesn't understand history (if they even know it nowadays). I despair now. I see what's coming. I'm a religious person. I also believe that the universe will eventually bring about balance. I think Americans have sown the seeds of their own destruction already.
This web blog has been strangely therapeutic for me. Not that it changes anything. It's just nice to find a few people with interesting insights, even if I don't always agree with them.
I agree with John about Chamberlain. He did what the general populace wanted him to do. And a lot of historians now argue that had he not signed the agreement, a woefully unprepared England would have perished quickly against Germany. The point I was trying to make is that we live in a democracy, and the government needs to heed (at least occasionally) the popular will. I know the US government has been ignoring voters for awhile, but with our current economic (and even societal ) crisis, the engine is running down.
Obama should never have been elected. But the alternative was McCain-a reckless warmonger who would have most likely lead the country into a dozen other wars by now. Obama captured the zeitgeist. People were exhausted. They wanted change. They got it. Personally, when I speak of intervention on any front (Ukraine, Syria, etc.), people balk. The usual response is now: "Not our problem." People need to be lead. If we have no one left in this country who can explain what has to be done and why, and get people to follow him, we deserve to fold.
I have a history degree (from a military school), and I agree with a lot of what is written on these boards. Unfortunately, the average American doesn't. Yes, the people of Troy died filled with terrible regret. The Germans perished in Berlin filled with regret and despair as well. The average person doesn't understand history (if they even know it nowadays). I despair now. I see what's coming. I'm a religious person. I also believe that the universe will eventually bring about balance. I think Americans have sown the seeds of their own destruction already.
This web blog has been strangely therapeutic for me. Not that it changes anything. It's just nice to find a few people with interesting insights, even if I don't always agree with them.
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