21-Feb-14 World View -- World fears of China's military

[John]

21-Feb-14 World View -- U.S. naval intelligence chief confirms worst fears of China's military buildup


How a world war with China would unfold

** 21-Feb-14 World View -- U.S. naval intelligence chief confirms worst fears of China's military buildup
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140221



Contents:
China is training for a 'short, sharp war' with Japan
How a world war with China would unfold
Intelligence chief Fanell confirms worst fears of China's military buildup


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Taiwan, Sankaku Islands,
James Fanell, Wolfgang Schivelbusch, Carl von Clausewitz,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal

[at99sy]

John I do not agree with this assessment of yours- "So, one can imagine that the Chinese believe that a short, sharp attack on these Japanese islands would bring no American response, like the Nazi attack on Czechoslovakia. Even if that turns out to be true, history shows that American nationalism would surge so high that any further military action by China would trigger a response, spiraling into a new world war. "

A Chinese attack would certainly trigger this nationalistic hysteria in Japan but not in America. Americans don't care about Asia. In fact the only place on Earth they care lees about than Asia is Africa. I would guess that 98% of Americans could not find any of these islands on a map. Not that topographic ignorance has prevented war in the past, but Americans see China as a source of cheap Wal-Mart crap and little else.

Americans don't want another war yet. But they an be persuaded I do agree. A major and successful attack directly upon Americans would increase public support I think in the short run. War is coming, but I do see this administration doing a Chamberlain and letting China have just about everything they want including taking out Taiwan. Japan will intervene before we do I am sure of that. They have the most to lose and the Chinese are still looking for payback from Nanking and all the other pre WWII atrocities and all that followed.

I still think the Chinese attack on America will come in the form of Economic and electronic measures. A militaristic attack makes little sense and the Chinese want our land and resources. Destroying it only benefits them in the sense that "if we can't have it neither can you."

cheers

sy

[bluebird]

I have always wondered about the event that will trigger the collapse.
Would it be a global financial meltdown, then goto war.
Or a war that would trigger the global financial meltdown.
Or something else that sets things in motion that will be blamed.

[utahbob]

What world briefing do you read in the morning?
It all comes down to (in a non-WMD scenario) the following:
1. How much pain will the leadership of the USA and PRC (Communist Party of China) will bear?
2. How much pain will the populace of each country endure?

All bets are off if one country goes nuclear or launches WMDs.
The previous poster is correct about the attention span of the American public.
It is just of case of Machiavellian calculus for regime survival in the case of CPC or risk of sovereign survival for the USA. This is developing in to a great war game, “what if” or alternate-history novel/series.

[gerald]

I have always wondered about the event that will trigger the collapse.
Would it be a global financial meltdown, then goto war.
Or a war that would trigger the global financial meltdown.
Or something else that sets things in motion that will be blamed.

However there is another possibility, unite the world against a foreign enemy or a global false flag event. After which many troubling issues can be swept under the rug as irrelevant.

An interesting video from Australian TV --- US military preparing for alien invasion ---

http://www.military.com/video/logistics ... 996010001/

This would be a real joker in the deck.

[Guest]

The PRC is not going to start a war by attacking US. They will keep taking islands, expecting US to just watch, until US finally fights back. THEN they will attack US. It would be stupid of them to attack someone who, with a tenth of its forces left, could still destroy them, if they expect to get things for free.

[Guest]

Japan has a powerful navy. Japan will push back.

I wouldn't be surprised if Japan already had nuclear weapons.

[Reality Check]

The PRC is not going to start a war by attacking US. They will keep taking islands, expecting US to just watch, until US finally fights back. THEN they will attack US. It would be stupid of them to attack someone who, with a tenth of its forces left, could still destroy them, if they expect to get things for free.

There is a lot of truth in those statements.

If the goal is controlling the oil, gas, fisheries in half of the East China Sea, and also in virtually the entire South China Sea, China appears to have their priorities straight by not attacking the U.S.

China is taking Islands as their own sovereign territory, as close to the other possible claimants as possible. The Island they have already got away with taking away from The Philippines (Scarborough Shoal aka Huangyan Island ) is right up against the Philippines in the South East corner, of the huge portion of the South China Sea between mainland China and The Philippines. The current Island they are drawing up war plans to take from the Philippines ( Thitu Island aka Pag-asa in the Philippines aka Zhongye island ) is in the South West corner of the huge portion of the South China Sea between China's mainland and The Philippines. When the Chineese take and hold Thitu Island, The Chineese will also be taking, and holding all of the South China sea between a line a few miles north of the Philippines and the mainland of China.

The China-Japan dispute is similar. Taking and holding the hotly ( newly hotly ) disputed Islands, unpopulated ( Senkaku Islands aka Diaoyu Islands aka Tiaoyutai Islands ) will also be taking and holding all waters between a line half way between the Senkaku Islands and the Ryukyu Islands, thus dividing the East China Sea between China and Japan based on roughly a fifty-fifty split of the portion of the East China Sea between Japan and the main land of China.

If a line is drawn from the southern tip of Korea to a point half way between empty Senkaku Islands and the southwestern most part of the Ryukyu Islands which are populated by the Japanese people, and are broadly recognized as part of Japan then you have divided the East China Sea on a fifty-fifty basis between China and Japan.

Obama is not going to start a conventional war, let alone a nuclear war over these tiny Islands nor the mineral rights between these islands and main land China. Why then would China start a war with the United States, when the United States, under Obama, will allow them to take the grand prize, control over virtually all of the South China Sea mineral and fishing rights, and Half of the East China Sea's mineral and fishing rights, for free ?

That is a very good question.

[Reality Check]

Japan has a powerful navy. Japan will push back.

I wouldn't be surprised if Japan already had nuclear weapons.

Japan is going to start a nuclear war with a superior nuclear power ( China ) over some empty islands much closer to both the densely populated Chinese main land and the densely populated Island of Taiwan, than it is to the densely populated main Islands of Japan ???

Japan is going to use ( and risk ) it's powerful navy within 200 miles of the Chinese main land to protect these islands devoid of people from occupation and control by China ???

Maybe, but it is easy to see why China may doubt Japan will engage in a major war close to the Chinese main land over these Islands.

It is much easier to see why China may doubt that Obama would fight a war over these Islands.

[Reality Check]

One thing that does seem clear.

China may start a war sooner, than later, over these Islands because of the world wide perception that Obama is weak, and NOT likely to support U.S. allies with U.S. military action in support of ( or defense of ) allies.

Attack while Obama is still in a position to surrender early and often.