20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Republic

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John
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20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Republic

Postby John » Sun Jan 19, 2014 10:43 pm

20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge

Egypt ponders the 98.1% 'yes' vote on new constitution referendum

** 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140120.htm#e140120




Contents:
Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge
Egypt ponders the 98.1% 'yes' vote on new constitution referendum


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, Bangui,
Christians, Muslims, France,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Adly Mansour,
Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Nour, Hosni Mubarak,
Mohamed Morsi

Reality Check
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby Reality Check » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:34 am

John wrote:

There are no charges of election fraud in the 98.1% "yes" vote in the referendum over Egypt's new proposed constitution,
...
It turns out that the 98.1% "yes" vote does not mean that Egypt is a unified country. Combined with the 39% turnout, it means that Egypt is more angry and divided than ever.



The rational you use for this conclusion would support the exact opposite conclusion.

The same sources you are using for your vote totals report that turn out for the popular vote on the Muslim Brotherhood written Constitution was in the low thirties and the approval rate was in the 60s.

vs the high thirties and the 90s for the current constitution.

Using your logic "the most angry and divided time ever" was when the Muslim Brotherhood regime was attempting to consolidate it's exclusive control of power in Egypt right before the largest demonstrations in world history, and right before the coup.

While Egypt remains divided, using the turnout rates and the approval rates of the most recent constitution as proof of this undermines the very credibility of your conclusions.

Reality Check wrote:
John wrote:
According to preliminary results, the boycott by Muslim Brotherhood members took its toll, as only 42.2% of registered voters turned out. However, among those who voted, 95.2% voted "yes."



John, I was curious where these numbers came from, I did not see them in the articles quoted.

John wrote:http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/91686/Egypt/Politics-/Preliminary-results--of-votes-in-favour-of-Egyptia.aspx


Reality Check wrote:
John wrote:http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/91686/Egypt/Politics-/Preliminary-results--of-votes-in-favour-of-Egyptia.aspx


Comparing the 2012 and 2014 Constitutions - turn out - voter approval rate - content compared

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/91686/Egypt/Politics-/Preliminary-results--of-votes-in-favour-of-Egyptia.aspx

http://egyptelections.carnegieendowment.org/2012/12/19/unofficial-results-of-the-first-round-of-egypt%E2%80%99s-december-2012-constitutional-referendum

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/88644.aspx
Last edited by Reality Check on Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

John
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Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby John » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:59 am

Reality Check wrote:> The rationale you use for this conclusion would support the exact
> opposite conclusion. The same sources you are using for your vote
> totals report that turn out for the popular vote on the Muslim
> Brotherhood written Constitution was in the low thirties and the
> approval rate was in the 60s. vs the high thirties and the 90s
> for the current constitution. Using your logic "the most angry
> and divided time ever" was when the Muslim Brotherhood regime was
> attempting to consolidate it's exclusive control of power in Egypt
> right before the largest demonstrations in world history, and
> right before the coup. While Egypt remains divided, using the
> turnout rates and the approval rates of the most recent
> constitution as proof of this undermines the very credibility of
> your conclusions.


That's not the logic of the article. The kneejerk conclusion from the
98.1% yes vote is that the country is unified. Then there are several
paragraphs telling about divisions within the country that have
occurred since the Morsi ouster, including calling the MB a terrorist
organization, intimidation of all voters, and the banning of
unauthorized demonstrations. Those are the reasons why the 39%
turnout figure is significant, and why it means that the country is
more angry and divided than ever. In any event, "angry and
divided" are subjective terms that, in my opinion, describe
the current situation.

Reality Check
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby Reality Check » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:42 pm

You are defending a different point than the one you are making in your daily post.

John wrote:

There are no charges of election fraud in the 98.1% "yes" vote in the referendum over Egypt's new proposed constitution,
...
It turns out that the 98.1% "yes" vote does not mean that Egypt is a unified country. Combined with the 39% turnout, it means that Egypt is more angry and divided than ever.



Again, my point is, if, as you claimed, the 39% turn out is a quantification of division. The the low thirties ( 33% ? ) turn out for ratification of the previous Muslim brotherhood constitution indicates an even larger division thus your following statement can simply not be true based on your reasoning:

John wrote: more angry and divided than ever.


Any society is, to some degree or another divided. But to attempt to use the fact that 61% did not vote as quantification of the degree of division, and as proof that "this is" "most divided time ever" fails utterly when the most recent previous vote on exactly the same subject ( ratification of a controversial constitution ) showed that 66% did not vote on the previous constitution.

Reaction to the previous division resulted in the largest demonstrations in the history of the world and the most popular coup in living memory.

By almost any measure the country is now more united than under the Muslim Brotherhood, that may change over time, and indeed the seeds for a multi-sided civil war exist in Egypt, but there is certainly a large majority in Egypt that is opposed to the return of the Muslim Brotherhood to power. Even as they differ on what should come next.

If opinion is going to be further divided in the future, or the opposite, remains an open question.

gerald
Posts: 1681
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby gerald » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:46 pm

meanwhile in the Ukraine https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/?sh ... 0ed4e0e777 ----------- yes I know the site is pushing an agenda

"It's almost exactly like that scene from V for Vendetta.

You know-- the part in the end where swarms of people go up against the police with their sticks and Guy Fawkes masks...

That's what's happening in Ukraine right now. And with reason.

After weeks of student protests over the government's failure to sign a European integration and association treaty, the police violently cracked down on protestors, and politicians passed a series of new laws in the middle of the night. Among them:

Criminal extremist activity is now redefined, broadly and loosely, that effectively criminalizes protest, press reports, or social media that is anti-government.
Insulting a policeman or judge is now a criminal offense. This includes behavior that "patently offends" or "shows insolent disrespect".
Blocking of administrative buildings is now criminalized with a 5-year prison sentence.
Anyone who organizes an assembly in violation of 'established procedures' can be arrested.
The government has streamlined its ability to force Internet Service Providers to block certain websites it deems harmful in its sole discretion.
New amendments to the criminal code allow pre-trial and trial proceedings to be conducted, even if the defendant is not physically present to defend himself.
The laws go on and on. It's Soviet stuff all over again. And people aren't taking this lightly.

In total defiance of these new laws, the gun-toting police thugs, and the bone chilling winter cold, people are once again out in the streets.

There's a great video from a few nights ago where the cops were assaulting a few protestors. Then suddenly a swarm of people with nothing more than fists and sticks ran over and began attacking the police.

Click here to watch the video (about 60 seconds)."

video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGaR7-9y ... 1aafc17341

Guest

Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby Guest » Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:04 am

Hello John, just wanted to give a few more info about Central African Republic.

1) It's a mosty a Christian Nation with about half the population firm believers. Islam makes up only 10-15% of the population.

2) Islam dominates the north, Christian to the more farmiable south

3)Ngbaka and the Yakoma were the first to have contact with the colonizers and were most likely to benefit from the French presence, especially by having access to formal education. These peoples were more likely to become members of the tiny African elite as a result of their relationship with the French.

That's all I have for now.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby John » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:09 am

Guest wrote:> Hello John, just wanted to give a few more info about Central
> African Republic.

> 1) It's a mosty a Christian Nation with about half the population
> firm believers. Islam makes up only 10-15% of the population.

> 2) Islam dominates the north, Christian to the more farmiable
> south

> 3)Ngbaka and the Yakoma were the first to have contact with the
> colonizers and were most likely to benefit from the French
> presence, especially by having access to formal education. These
> peoples were more likely to become members of the tiny African
> elite as a result of their relationship with the French.

> That's all I have for now.


Thank you for this information. It's difficult to find this kind of
information on the internet.

So, would it be correct to say that the Ngbaka and the Yakoma are
Christian, because of their relationship with the French?

Here's another article on the subject:

Genocide Watch wrote: Genocide Warning: Central African Republic
04 April 2013
By Katelyn Nawoyski

The political background for the current crisis in the Central
African Republic is described in Genocide Watch’s Country Report
of 2012. The Central African Republic was part of French
Equatorial Africa and became independent in 1960. French
authorities gave preference in education to ethnic groups near
Bangui, the capital.

This created an elite among the Southern Riverine peoples –
including the Ngbaka,, Yakoma and Ubang. This elite dominated
ruling positions in the CAR until 1996 even though northern and
central ethnic groups are more populous, creating resentment among
northern and central groups.

In 1996, Ange-Félix Patassé – from a northern ethnic group, the
Kaba – was elected President. He was re-elected in 1999. The
Yakoma, from the old ruling elite, rebelled. The United Nations
Mission in the Central African Republic – called MINURCA –
attempted to oversee “peace accords” between the Yakama and
Patassé’s Kaba. But despite the UN’s good intentions, MINURCA
lacked all three conditions for a successful UN Peace Keeping
Operation (PKO):

  • There must be a peace to keep.
  • The PKO must have the Mandate and the material means to
    enforce it.
  • The PKO must be backed by the UN’s political will to support
    the PKO financially, with enough well-trained personnel to enforce
    the peace, and with robust Rules of Engagement.

After a failed coup attempt in May 2001, the Immigration and
Refugee Board of Canada reported government sponsored reprisal
arrests and killings of Yakoma in Bangui. Many Yakoma were forced
to flee to the Democratic Republic of the Congo to escape the
killings.

A bloodless coup ensued in March 2003 when François Bozizé took
power. Bozizé was then elected in May 2005. Two groups of rebels –
one based in the northeast (called the Seleka Coalition) and one
based in the northwest near the border with Sudan and Chad –
organized to oust Bozizé.

According to the United States Institute of Peace fighting in the
northwest displaced over 270,000 people over one-quarter of the
northwest region’s population of one million people.

Seleka forces entered Bangui and took the Presidential Palace on
March 24, 2013, forcing President Bozizé to flee the
country. Seleka’s leader – Michel Djotodia – declared himself
President.

Djotodia announced he would also be Minister of Defense. The US
State Department expressed concern at the undemocratic nature of
the coup d’état.

The Red Cross reported on April 1, 2013, that 78 bodies had been
found during the week after Djotodia came to power, and The
Guardian reported that Djotodia used child soldiers who were
killed during the coup.

The Guardian documented first-hand accounts from eyewitnesses that
Seleka child soldiers appeared to be drugged, and some were crying
for their mothers before they were killed. Use of child soldiers
is a war crime. South Africa – which had sent 298 soldiers to aid
Bozizé’s government – lost thirteen men. The UN Security Council
condemned Djotodia’s coup. The African Union sanctioned Seleka
leaders and suspended the CAR’s participation in the African
Union.

Genocide Watch has issued a Genocide Alert for the Central African
Republic. Genocide Watch recommends that the follow actions be
taken immediately:

  • The Central African Republic is a state-party to the Rome Treaty
    of the International Criminal Court. If Seleka leaders used child
    soldiers, they should be charged and tried by the ICC.
  • The Central African Republic should not be re-admitted into the
    African Union until it holds free and fair elections for public
    officials.
  • Uganda has withdrawn its forces from the Central African Republic
    in the hunt for Joseph Kony, who is believed to be hiding in the
    CAR. The UN should demand that the CAR cooperate fully in Kony’s
    capture for trial by the International Criminal Court.

http://www.genocidewatch.org/centralafr ... ublic.html

Guest

Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby Guest » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:17 pm

Yup. You can say that Ngbaka and the Yakoma are Christians although I'm not a 100% sure.

Jullien1

Re: 20-Jan-14 World View -- Mob rule in Central African Repu

Postby Jullien1 » Tue Feb 04, 2014 7:18 am

So, would it be correct to say that the Ngbaka and the Yakoma are
Christian, because of their relationship with the French?

More probably, it was because the missionaries came from the South like the French soldiers whereas (muslim) Arab traders came from the North.


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