16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure

[John]

16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines

Vietnam reverses policy and become openly anti-China

** 16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140116


Contents:
Vietnam reverses policy and become openly anti-China
China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines
China tests hypersonic speed missile vehicle


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, China, Paracel Islands,
Japan, Philippines, Pagasa Island, Zhongye Island,
Senkaku Island, Diaoyu Island, WU-14, Edward Snowden

[Trevor]

Yeah, this really does remind me a lot of World War I, and since this is the centennial of WWI, it's more obvious than ever.

I'm sure we're going to do nothing but offer diplomatic protests if the Chinese start seizing islands, and we all know how much they care about international opinion. The question is more: What will Japan and India do when that happens?

The DF-41 can carry up to 10 MIRVs when it's fully operational, assuming it isn't already. All the ones we still have in service can only carry 3, leaving us at a distinct disadvantage. Something else I'd bet on is that they have a lot more nuclear weapons than they say they do, and I've read intelligence reports to that effect.

The question is: since we're gutting our defense capabilities, what the hell can we do to defend ourselves?

[Guest]

I would not expect China to attack US cities in a preemptive war, but instead use a counterforce strategy rather than a countervalue one, then hold American cities hostage to our staying out of it. Of course, we may not back down. The silos out west will be hit before I am in Twinsburg.

[NoOneImportant]

Yes, the silos will be hit first, but only moments before cities, and that includes Minnianoplace.

[New Reality]

This is nothing unexpected. We've known for years that China was going to overtake America as the "big kid on the block." It's a reality we're just going to have to learn to live with. It's only a matter of time before they invite us to get out of Taiwan, or else, and we will have no option but to do so. China is now where America was in the 1940's, growing their economy and infrastructure at the fastest rate in their history, and we on the other hand are scaling down everything military, and continuing to go deeper into debt than at anytime in our history, plus our social fabric is coming undone.
The discouraging fact is that China knows considerably more about us and our capabilities than the average American knows, they also know where our assets are and are developing means of striking them with weapons we cannot defend against. They will reach the point within the next few years where they can threaten (or possibly) launch a preemptive strike against us to assure that we no longer interfere in world affairs. They may even decide to "administer" this country for its farmland and natural resources.
For the first time in over two hundred years we may find ourselves living under the existential threat of a foreign power. (or worse)

[at99sy]

It would seem to me to be an inefficient strategy to nuke a country such as ours. With all of the resources we have in our lands it would be a better use of technology to simply cripple our electric grid and wait for the country to fall apart. Considering the patience the Chinese have, they could wait a few months and then slowly occupy large portions of our country with little organized resistance. As long as we remain an armed populace civilians would be a thorn for decades but strategic strikes on military targets with bio/chemical weapons would take down the major resistance to them. This would not render the lands contaminated for years,decades, centuries, and they could march right in. amid a hail of gunfire from civilians of course.
but nukes would render the most valuable parts of our nation useless. That being habitable and arable land. and the fresh water of course.


cheers

sy

[NoOneImportant]

Great observation Sy.

The crippling of the US power grid is one of the prospective "black-swan" events that might disable American society as we currently enjoy it.

The two most probable grid scenarios are: 1.) the anonymous detonation of a nuke(s), launched from the proximity of the continental U.S. - the Gulf of Mexico best suits the need - into the upper atmosphere thus generating an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The resultant EMP causes significant DC currents to flow in the US grid long-line electrical transmission lines. Those currents are felt by the high voltage transformers at both ends of the line causing a shift in the transformer's operating point. The shift, even thought temporary, results in high frequency "noise" that causes excessive heat generation in the transformers resulting in transformer burn-out. The transformers are very large, highly specialized, custom designed, and not domestically produced - they take months to produce, and there are roughly 5000 of then of various types nationwide. The prospect of an EMP is quite scary.

2.) The second possible threat to the grid is through a cyber attack of the networked control systems that "manage" the operation of the various parts of the grid - hack the network(s), rename or delete a critical file necessary for proper system operation, then the system "crashes" no longer managing anything - this is how 30,000 Saudi ARAMCO PCs were taken down last year. Depending upon how the grid network is structured and designed the various parts may, or may not function autonomously. On the other hand the beauty of cyber anything is that an attack may be staged and that all the parts may be struck coincidentally; thus assuring that none of the grid continues to function. The down side of a cyber attack - from the attacker's perspective - is that permanent long term grid damage is not assured by crashing the control system network(s) that run the grid. To permanently damage the grid from a cyber attack requires not just to crash the control system network(s) but also a knowledge of the specific grid structure and to cause a network failure that stresses and destroys a critical long lead time component of the grid - this is a much, much more difficult task, as it requires an intimate knowledge of the physical grid design and structure.