17-Dec-13 World View -- Arab states split over issue of Iran

[John]

17-Dec-13 World View -- Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West


U.N. makes biggest funding request ever, for Syria

** 17-Dec-13 World View -- Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131217



Contents:
U.N. makes biggest funding request ever, for Syria
Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC

[NoOneImportant]

From where I sit the primary question of interest is: are we looking at a Saudi Arabia of the past - meek, retiring, content to let others force their issues, a nation content to "buy" what they require, generally in accordance with international norms, or are we looking at a Saudi Arabia being transformed - a Saudi Arabia more inclined to actively participate in, and precipitate external events, and actions through covert action?

One always believes that terrorists see their external targets as their paramount "enemy", but that's not the case. The penultimate enemy is the less than fervent member within. When the extremists wrest control, the top issue, and primary enemy, is the member within who requires elimination for less that dedicated motivation. The difficulty is first described by Thucydides. The transformation, when it takes place, is acute: the monster without morals, or ethical inhibition becomes the hero, the morally inhibited becomes the the "goat." On the one hand, the more barbarous the action executed by the dedicated, the wilder the public acclimation - basically a hurrah for our side, given without moral concern, or consideration; on the other hand any internal moral inhibition, as exhibited by the morally restrained, is viewed as weakness, and betrayal, and is met with overt condemnation. In the extreme, the betrayer is always executed as an example to the less-than-fervent. It is what took place in France during the reign-of-terror, and is responsible for numerous other acts of "unexplained barbarity" throughout history - the Mongols at Kiev - although the million or so residents of Kiev murdered were technically not an internal threat to the Mongols, but they were a message to others - the German Kamps, the Russian Gulags, the Cambodian Killing Fields, the Chinese Cultural Revolution, et al.

What we see in Syria may be viewed in this way. At issue is: are we seeing the metamorphosis of Saudi Arabia? The difficulty with using terror is that the terrorists are always the most fervent, and over time can see the less than dedicated - the morally restrained, who initially believe that they can use terror as a targeted "tool" - as the primary enemy. If Saudi Arabia indeed sees an ascendent Iran as a mortal - existential - threat and has decided to engage in covert actions - terror - inside of Iran, the issue is can that terror be "controlled" within Saudi Arabia, or perhaps more importantly can the "fervor" be limited, and controlled?

[John]

When you compare Saudi Arabia with Iran, a good thing to remember is
that Saudi Arabia didn't even exist prior to 1932, and was formed out
of a bunch of tribes. By contrast, Iran/Persia has a rich, proud
history that goes back millennia.

If I knew nothing else about the two countries except those two facts,
then I would quickly conclude that Iran is the one of the two that's
going to survive.

[indyjones]

If one considers the 28 missing pages from the 9/11 report and reports by a couple of congressmen who have seen the pages, I for one could care less if the Saudis survive the decade. But the politicians and other ruling elite sure do want the Saudis to survive...such a nice pile of oil money all in one place where the Arabs take heat for the high price of petroleum but the ruling elite can sell them anything and everything for a high price and take no heat for oil prices. A terrific money tree for the politically connected. Damn all of them....drill, baby, drill.....frack, baby, frack. Take leave of the Islamic degenerates.

[Guest]

I doubt Saudi Arabia, in its present form, will last another years. (But I also wonder if the US will survive another 10 years). The problem is this: what will replace the Saudi Royal family? I doubt it will be a bunch of reform minded democrats. More likely some kind of Talibam movement. Or even worse: nothing. Just a group of waring tribes like in Libya, where oil sales have practically stopped...