9-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine protesters tear down Lenin

[John]

9-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine anti-Russian protesters tear down Lenin statue in Kiev

Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi gains in India's election

** 9-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine anti-Russian protesters tear down Lenin statue in Kiev
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131209



Contents:
Ukraine anti-Russian protesters tear down Lenin statue in Kiev
Jordan is elected to Saudi Arabia's rejected UN Security Council seat
Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi gains in India's election


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Kiev, Viktor Yanukovich,
Vladimir Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Nations Security Council,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
India, Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP,
Manmohan Singh, Congress Party, Hindutva violence

[Guest]

The Russians will roll into the Ukraine and massacre the opposition. And Europe will do nothing to stop it.

[Guest]

Could it be that the Russians intend to partition the Ukraine? The eastern half is economically dependent and traditionally part of Russia anyway. The Russians want to control the Crimea and the Black sea fleet; that is the priority.

[John]

Could it be that the Russians intend to partition the Ukraine? The eastern half is economically dependent and traditionally part of Russia anyway. The Russians want to control the Crimea and the Black sea fleet; that is the priority.

I don't think that the Russians would be willing to
settle for only half of Ukraine.

John

[Guest]

Could it be that the Russians intend to partition the Ukraine? The eastern half is economically dependent and traditionally part of Russia anyway. The Russians want to control the Crimea and the Black sea fleet; that is the priority.

I don't think that the Russians would be willing to
settle for only half of Ukraine.

John

The Russians settled for half of Georgia.

The Russians still have an active insurgency in Chechnya and the Kavkaz; adding tens of millions of angry Ukrainians to the Russian empire could destabilize the whole the country.

Russia's army is a mess:corrupt, poorly trained, hungry, badly lead, and poorly equipped. Yes, a ham-fisted invasion could work, but the Ukraine is a big country that borders western Europe. (Unlike tiny, isolated Chechnya.) It would be easy to supply weapons and volunteers to the Ukraine. An invasion of the Ukraine would be difficult.

[NoOneImportant]

And what happened in Georgia is what made me so sure that the Russians would use force in the Ukraine. One of my human maxims is: past performance is future performance; you will do in the future what you have done in the past.

Logistically any significant military operation requires 30 - 90 days to stage; so Putin is working up to the end of the first 30 days. Comm intelligence should finger any significant military unit movements. If Yanukovich invites the Russians in, I have no idea what will happen, it depends upon the control Yanukovich has over the military, and the willingness of the demonstrators to accept Russian presence.

[Guest]

And what happened in Georgia is what made me so sure that the Russians would use force in the Ukraine. One of my human maxims is: past performance is future performance; you will do in the future what you have done in the past.

Logistically any significant military operation requires 30 - 90 days to stage; so Putin is working up to the end of the first 30 days. Comm intelligence should finger any significant military unit movements. If Yanukovich invites the Russians in, I have no idea what will happen, it depends upon the control Yanukovich has over the military, and the willingness of the demonstrators to accept Russian presence.

I believe Russia will invade as well. I think the pattern will follow what the Russians did in Chechnya and Georgia: (A very simple explanation)

1) Proxy war (Russia picks a stooge and supplies them with money, weapons, equipment, and Russian (perhaps some non ethnic Russians, like cossacks or even Chechens from Kadroy's puppet security forces) "volunteers. The conflict that follows usually ends in the first round with the proxy being initially defeated.

2) All out Russian invasion. The reasons could be a response to a staged terrorist attack (The 99' Moscow apartment bombings) or to repel a supposed invasion (Georgia-2008).

Everyone really knows what is really going on, but some will play along with the charade. Governments will shamefully pay lip service to Russian claims. I think spineless Europe will do little.

The Ukrainians will get outside help in the form of weapons, supplies and volunteers (however little). Here is where it gets dangerous. Russia hits targets on the other side of the border (Poland, Hungary, Romania, or Moldova). Russia will say it is attacking rebel safe havens and resupply points (whether true or not). What will NATO do? That is the TEST the Russians are looking for. Will NATO back down? Is NATO really willing to come to Hungary' or Poland's aid?

[NoOneImportant]

Great observations.

It's what Rome used to conquer the known world - from the Indus valley, to Britain, from the steps of Russia, to North Africa. Find a political weak sister, have them invite you in - but only in the name of peace, mind you. Then either enter, and take control, or enter in support of the weak sister, taking control only later.