1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed
Australia faces strategic dilemma as rise of China challenges U.S.
** 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131201
Contents:
Australia faces strategic dilemma as rise of China challenges U.S.
Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed
How could President Obama have been so wrong?
The future of Obamacare
Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Australia, China, India, Japan,
Obamacare, Healthcare.gov, Fred Brooks, Mythical Man-Month,
System/360, McKinsey & Co., Northrop Corp., Fidelity,
Richard Nixon, Wage-price controls, Mao Zedong,
Great Leap Forward
1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M
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NoOneImportant
Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
Similar experiences John, with a few differences. Did mostly embedded, and realtime systems. Worked on small teams, and also watched the development of IBMs Oz - a system that also had more than its share of issues early on - reflected in it's first spooler, HASP, Houston Automatic Spooler, a user program done by NASA, as the original IBM spooler initially didn't work all that well. In the past I have also seen the code generation numbers you cited, regarding IBM's development of OS, and SW creation in general - 6 - 10 lines a day. Stopped doing system development in the early 90s and became a semiconductor apps eng., and ultimately worked as a semi, and realtime embedded computer salesman calling on federal contractors and federal facilities - but, once a SW geek, always a SW geek, so I never lost my love of doing a bit of code, just haven't done anything in about 10 years.
At the time I left the SW development biz there was a great deal of emphasis on code generators. You feed the generator a meta language it generates high-level code - Java, Cobol, C++, or something else. That output is fed into a standard compiler - it's the only way I can figure that they can come up with the 500M number for lines of code. From a practical point of view it's tough to tell any customer that you want him to fork over $500 meg for 20K - 30k lines of code, even when its the government - but the practical reality is that this is probably being done cost plus; the labor is time and materials, with a fixed profit adder. So what do you do? You don't tell him what your feeding into the code generator, you tell him what the code generator is spitting out, and being fed into the compiler. And if your really heartless you don't tell him what the generator is creating in terms of high level code either, but, rather, you tell him the number of lines of macro assembly coming out of the compiler being fed into the macroassembler that generates the relocatables that are fed into the linker to generate the executables. That's the only way I can see that anything that large can be managed - essentially they are distorting what is really happening. Managing a project with 500M lines of code would be the equivalent of managing the lives of one and a half times the population of the entire US - perhaps, not exactly analogous, but it conveys the magnitude of the numbers involved in the problem.
As to how they messed it up; any project with any hope has to have both an external ref. specification where how the thing is going to operate is generally laid out - user dialog, screens, entry types, etc.... From the external spec an internal spec is created, defining how the thing is going to work, major modules, how they will interact, conventions, etc.... Additionally a data dictionary has to define the file structures/DB, and data definitions. It's the only way that order is brought to chaos. Whereas these docs are best formalized, people really don't like structure, and resist generating these docs - that's not unusual, they often get done informally, with the exception of the file layouts/DB, and data dictionary, if these aren't controlled catastrophe ensues. This format eventually gets impressed onto all projects either by planning, or by necessity. The worst of all worlds is achieved when a giant project is started by guys who just sit down and start to: "beat-it-out." Somebody will throw together an initial data dictionary, and data base, and they will build from the bottom up - it always turns out to be a mess, somebody doesn't get an update of the data dictionary, and his code starts putting stuff where it doesn't belong, causing big trouble and nobody knows, and not necessarily immediately - the DB slowly gets corrupted as the system gradually eats itself, and it doesn't happen immediately, so it eats lots of time - the priceless asset. Given a hardware schematic and a couple of days, it can usually be assessed whether it is probable that a given piece of in-development hardware will work or not - it just is not so with SW, software project management is the most difficult technical job I ever did - corporate management is more difficult, as you get no immediate feedback; I routinely missed target dates by 100% - 200%. It's because if you knew what you needed, you would have what you wanted. Planning is paramount, but no amount of planning will help debug and find the roll-over variable crash that happens once a week. All development follows the desired flow path; initial development always puts stubs in where exception conditions need to be handled; those exceptions are often difficult, and are TBD - worked out later. The difficulty in doing this is that when the stuff looks almost done when it isn't - but it's a normal part of the development process. Some of these stubs always "sneak" into early revs of a released system.
Had a really good guy who worked for me - a bit cynical, but a great guy - who when queried: "...when is there time to do the SW job right..?", he would comment: "... on the next rev, of course." More truth to that than many would care to admit. Combat Tallon - the terrain following radar system for the C130 had three wacks before they put some experienced good people on the project and they did it right - couldn't do it right the first or second time as they had a delivery target; the target delivery date got a whole lot less important when the system wanted to crash the C130.
Regarding Obama, as noted numerous times, he simply isn't qualified for where he finds himself - and we get drilled, but it's ok 'cause he'll smile real pretty into the camera for us, then lie to our face, and blame someone else, and look into the camera, and tell us that he didn't know. What's he being paid $400k a year for? Playing basket ball, golf? For globe trotting talking to foreign leaders? Just exactly what's he talking to them about? He doesn't know about the IRS, despite 150+ visits of an IRS director to the WH; he doesn't know about the NSA spying on phone conversations of foreign leaders, it seems that he doesn't sign off on those, who does, perhaps he should be President; he doesn't know about Benghazi: he doesn't know about Obamacare, he's been purging the US military like he was Joe Stalin - 9 generals this year alone, 200 colonels in the last 3 years, the equivalent of an entire year's class at the Army War College . Just exactly what does he know about, and what's he being paid for? And what is he talking to foreign leaders about as he apparently doesn't know all that much about almost anything. As catastrophic as the web site is it is a red-herring distraction. The web site, with enough time and money, will be made to work, even if they have to rewrite it - as you noted Amazon works, Google works, Facebook works, so this mess can be fixed, it's just that Obama has no real world experience to tell that this was prospectively in store, and his total absence of character leaves us with having to choose as to whether his's simply stupid, or malicious. He is so bereft of life experiences it is questionable as to whether he can read a financial statement - this is the man tasked with administering the largest administrative bureauracy in the entire world - this is more than concerning, this is scary.
As John has noted the real problem is government intervention in peoples private lives/needs. It is interesting to note that there are only two ways to arbitrate a rare resource: 1.) a price, or 2.) a bureaucrat. Medical services are a rare resource, a fact that accounts for continual cost increases. In the private sector you may shop for medical services - you become the arbitrator evaluating goods, services, costs, and quality, then select who you desire; or you may do no shopping at all and buy the first guy you call; it's your choice, and if you don't like the guy you've been using you can change. When the government becomes involved as the arbitrator, the price becomes "fixed", but the bureaucrat becomes the arbitrator of the rare resource. Again in this case it's medical goods, and services - it is pivotal to understand that the bureaucrat's job is to tell you no, not yes. He is there to eliminate part of the demand for what is in short supply, and of limited availability. His job is to tell you no, not yes; and you're not going anywhere else - not legally anyway, even if you go to a different facility/doctor the request for services is again going to come to the bureaucrat - and he is Dr. No.
In any society bureaucrats telling people "no" leads to them learning how to "work" the system. They find the guy that the bureaucrat told "yes" to, then do it like he did it - this leads to a gradual increase in demand; a demand that the resource can't sustain. The increased demand causes the bureaucrat to arbitrarily change "the guide-lines" at, what appears to be, random, and for no apparent reason. The "new guide-lines" are designed to again, essentially, delete much of the demand for the limited resource - and the process starts all over again. Number of years ago I was having lunch at a Wendy's outside of the Johnson Space Center in Houston where I was conversing with an astronaut. He was complaining as he was invited by the South African government to visit their country. He needed to obtain a passport - personally I thought that was rather ironic, you know, astronauts, and passports - to leave the country, and only had a couple of weeks to obtain it. I had, a year or two before, obtained my passport so I told him that he could obtain his passport in a week if he paid a few dollars for an expedited passport request. He told me: "yes that was true, but the passport office had been tasked with so many expedited requests, that they now demanded a copy of the travel ticket, and itinerary before expediting any passport request, and he had yet to receive his ticket" - true story, don't like the demand, change the requirements until the demand goes away, note the Obamacare death panels.
There are several unintended consequences of government intervention in free markets, it causes large artificial distortions as Nixon found out: 1.) certain services, and goods simply disappear, they are cheap, but they can't be bought, as they can't be found, much like rent-controlled housing in NYC; 2.) another circumstance that arises when the government gets involved is the immediate emergence of a "black-market" in the controlled item - like the illicit drug trade; goods are always available, but they aren't cheap, and there is no quality control, and no refunds.
At the time I left the SW development biz there was a great deal of emphasis on code generators. You feed the generator a meta language it generates high-level code - Java, Cobol, C++, or something else. That output is fed into a standard compiler - it's the only way I can figure that they can come up with the 500M number for lines of code. From a practical point of view it's tough to tell any customer that you want him to fork over $500 meg for 20K - 30k lines of code, even when its the government - but the practical reality is that this is probably being done cost plus; the labor is time and materials, with a fixed profit adder. So what do you do? You don't tell him what your feeding into the code generator, you tell him what the code generator is spitting out, and being fed into the compiler. And if your really heartless you don't tell him what the generator is creating in terms of high level code either, but, rather, you tell him the number of lines of macro assembly coming out of the compiler being fed into the macroassembler that generates the relocatables that are fed into the linker to generate the executables. That's the only way I can see that anything that large can be managed - essentially they are distorting what is really happening. Managing a project with 500M lines of code would be the equivalent of managing the lives of one and a half times the population of the entire US - perhaps, not exactly analogous, but it conveys the magnitude of the numbers involved in the problem.
As to how they messed it up; any project with any hope has to have both an external ref. specification where how the thing is going to operate is generally laid out - user dialog, screens, entry types, etc.... From the external spec an internal spec is created, defining how the thing is going to work, major modules, how they will interact, conventions, etc.... Additionally a data dictionary has to define the file structures/DB, and data definitions. It's the only way that order is brought to chaos. Whereas these docs are best formalized, people really don't like structure, and resist generating these docs - that's not unusual, they often get done informally, with the exception of the file layouts/DB, and data dictionary, if these aren't controlled catastrophe ensues. This format eventually gets impressed onto all projects either by planning, or by necessity. The worst of all worlds is achieved when a giant project is started by guys who just sit down and start to: "beat-it-out." Somebody will throw together an initial data dictionary, and data base, and they will build from the bottom up - it always turns out to be a mess, somebody doesn't get an update of the data dictionary, and his code starts putting stuff where it doesn't belong, causing big trouble and nobody knows, and not necessarily immediately - the DB slowly gets corrupted as the system gradually eats itself, and it doesn't happen immediately, so it eats lots of time - the priceless asset. Given a hardware schematic and a couple of days, it can usually be assessed whether it is probable that a given piece of in-development hardware will work or not - it just is not so with SW, software project management is the most difficult technical job I ever did - corporate management is more difficult, as you get no immediate feedback; I routinely missed target dates by 100% - 200%. It's because if you knew what you needed, you would have what you wanted. Planning is paramount, but no amount of planning will help debug and find the roll-over variable crash that happens once a week. All development follows the desired flow path; initial development always puts stubs in where exception conditions need to be handled; those exceptions are often difficult, and are TBD - worked out later. The difficulty in doing this is that when the stuff looks almost done when it isn't - but it's a normal part of the development process. Some of these stubs always "sneak" into early revs of a released system.
Had a really good guy who worked for me - a bit cynical, but a great guy - who when queried: "...when is there time to do the SW job right..?", he would comment: "... on the next rev, of course." More truth to that than many would care to admit. Combat Tallon - the terrain following radar system for the C130 had three wacks before they put some experienced good people on the project and they did it right - couldn't do it right the first or second time as they had a delivery target; the target delivery date got a whole lot less important when the system wanted to crash the C130.
Regarding Obama, as noted numerous times, he simply isn't qualified for where he finds himself - and we get drilled, but it's ok 'cause he'll smile real pretty into the camera for us, then lie to our face, and blame someone else, and look into the camera, and tell us that he didn't know. What's he being paid $400k a year for? Playing basket ball, golf? For globe trotting talking to foreign leaders? Just exactly what's he talking to them about? He doesn't know about the IRS, despite 150+ visits of an IRS director to the WH; he doesn't know about the NSA spying on phone conversations of foreign leaders, it seems that he doesn't sign off on those, who does, perhaps he should be President; he doesn't know about Benghazi: he doesn't know about Obamacare, he's been purging the US military like he was Joe Stalin - 9 generals this year alone, 200 colonels in the last 3 years, the equivalent of an entire year's class at the Army War College . Just exactly what does he know about, and what's he being paid for? And what is he talking to foreign leaders about as he apparently doesn't know all that much about almost anything. As catastrophic as the web site is it is a red-herring distraction. The web site, with enough time and money, will be made to work, even if they have to rewrite it - as you noted Amazon works, Google works, Facebook works, so this mess can be fixed, it's just that Obama has no real world experience to tell that this was prospectively in store, and his total absence of character leaves us with having to choose as to whether his's simply stupid, or malicious. He is so bereft of life experiences it is questionable as to whether he can read a financial statement - this is the man tasked with administering the largest administrative bureauracy in the entire world - this is more than concerning, this is scary.
As John has noted the real problem is government intervention in peoples private lives/needs. It is interesting to note that there are only two ways to arbitrate a rare resource: 1.) a price, or 2.) a bureaucrat. Medical services are a rare resource, a fact that accounts for continual cost increases. In the private sector you may shop for medical services - you become the arbitrator evaluating goods, services, costs, and quality, then select who you desire; or you may do no shopping at all and buy the first guy you call; it's your choice, and if you don't like the guy you've been using you can change. When the government becomes involved as the arbitrator, the price becomes "fixed", but the bureaucrat becomes the arbitrator of the rare resource. Again in this case it's medical goods, and services - it is pivotal to understand that the bureaucrat's job is to tell you no, not yes. He is there to eliminate part of the demand for what is in short supply, and of limited availability. His job is to tell you no, not yes; and you're not going anywhere else - not legally anyway, even if you go to a different facility/doctor the request for services is again going to come to the bureaucrat - and he is Dr. No.
In any society bureaucrats telling people "no" leads to them learning how to "work" the system. They find the guy that the bureaucrat told "yes" to, then do it like he did it - this leads to a gradual increase in demand; a demand that the resource can't sustain. The increased demand causes the bureaucrat to arbitrarily change "the guide-lines" at, what appears to be, random, and for no apparent reason. The "new guide-lines" are designed to again, essentially, delete much of the demand for the limited resource - and the process starts all over again. Number of years ago I was having lunch at a Wendy's outside of the Johnson Space Center in Houston where I was conversing with an astronaut. He was complaining as he was invited by the South African government to visit their country. He needed to obtain a passport - personally I thought that was rather ironic, you know, astronauts, and passports - to leave the country, and only had a couple of weeks to obtain it. I had, a year or two before, obtained my passport so I told him that he could obtain his passport in a week if he paid a few dollars for an expedited passport request. He told me: "yes that was true, but the passport office had been tasked with so many expedited requests, that they now demanded a copy of the travel ticket, and itinerary before expediting any passport request, and he had yet to receive his ticket" - true story, don't like the demand, change the requirements until the demand goes away, note the Obamacare death panels.
There are several unintended consequences of government intervention in free markets, it causes large artificial distortions as Nixon found out: 1.) certain services, and goods simply disappear, they are cheap, but they can't be bought, as they can't be found, much like rent-controlled housing in NYC; 2.) another circumstance that arises when the government gets involved is the immediate emergence of a "black-market" in the controlled item - like the illicit drug trade; goods are always available, but they aren't cheap, and there is no quality control, and no refunds.
Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
John, I would not be too concerned about Australia vs China. Beside the cultural difference, there is also the "issue" of "Pine Gap". Pine Gap is a US installation in the center of Australia.( one of several types in the country ) Some have likened it to Area 51, and supposedly by those who work there it is called Area 52. It is suppose to be a major installation. the accepted description ---- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap ------ a twilight zone version -- http://www.ufoevidence.org/documents/doc1925.htm
A side note, Pine Gap is near Alice Springs, and having been to Alice Springs it is a medium sized very contemporary city having the feel of a city in the American West. Some of the locals feel Alice Springs has been Americanized. One also needs to understand where Alice Springs or Pine Gap is. By traveling East or West from the North/South Stuart Highway you will have little trouble finding yourself in the middle of nowhere, a great place to do secret stuff.
A side note, Pine Gap is near Alice Springs, and having been to Alice Springs it is a medium sized very contemporary city having the feel of a city in the American West. Some of the locals feel Alice Springs has been Americanized. One also needs to understand where Alice Springs or Pine Gap is. By traveling East or West from the North/South Stuart Highway you will have little trouble finding yourself in the middle of nowhere, a great place to do secret stuff.
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NoOneImportant
Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
As always, interesting Gerald.
The wiki Pine Gap thing made sense, Australia was one of the early US space program tracking sites, never knew exactly where in Australia the site was located - it may or may not have been Pine Gap. I was part of the Army Security Agency in mid-late 60s. Did Elint stuff in several secure facilities - Russian Sputs only. In one of our facilities there was a small contingent of a few guys who did US subs - this is before the ELF comm to the subs - they were completely segregated in a secure locked area, and were the only guys with guns, and were told to shoot anybody who entered their area; even the crypto guys, who also had a small secure locked area, weren't given guns. Needless to say, while I was there, nobody ever tried to enter the sub area - no one was all that interested in getting shot.
Bit skeptical about the second item - although I wasn't aware that Australia only had a population of 18 meg. Must make the Chinese just drool. So much space, so few people - so near, and yet so far away, prospectively just another autonomous ethnic Chinese territory
.
The wiki Pine Gap thing made sense, Australia was one of the early US space program tracking sites, never knew exactly where in Australia the site was located - it may or may not have been Pine Gap. I was part of the Army Security Agency in mid-late 60s. Did Elint stuff in several secure facilities - Russian Sputs only. In one of our facilities there was a small contingent of a few guys who did US subs - this is before the ELF comm to the subs - they were completely segregated in a secure locked area, and were the only guys with guns, and were told to shoot anybody who entered their area; even the crypto guys, who also had a small secure locked area, weren't given guns. Needless to say, while I was there, nobody ever tried to enter the sub area - no one was all that interested in getting shot.
Bit skeptical about the second item - although I wasn't aware that Australia only had a population of 18 meg. Must make the Chinese just drool. So much space, so few people - so near, and yet so far away, prospectively just another autonomous ethnic Chinese territory
.Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
The Chinese have been involved with the development of Australia since at least 1421. "1421 the Year China Discovered America" by Gavin Menzies and more recently the 1800's "Kings in Grass Castles" by Mary Durack. It should be noted that some aboriginal children are born with blond hair, ( which I have seen ) https://www.google.com/search?q=aborigi ... 71&bih=844 some say this and genetics is indicative of some Chinese influence. --- As for the twilight zone link --- what is true? Supposedly in area 51 there is a thing called the "looking glass" with it you are able to see the past and also see what "might" happen in the future. - http://area51jrod.com/related-reading/ --go to the looking glass heading on this site-- of course this is nuts. However, I have experienced knowing of places and events in the future where I have never been. One such "knowing" saved my life, nuts? If one looks at the structure of neurons in the brain and the structure of the universe https://www.google.com/search?q=brain+n ... 44#imgdii=_NoOneImportant wrote:As always, interesting Gerald.
The wiki Pine Gap thing made sense, Australia was one of the early US space program tracking sites, never knew exactly where in Australia the site was located - it may or may not have been Pine Gap. I was part of the Army Security Agency in mid-late 60s. Did Elint stuff in several secure facilities - Russian Sputs only. In one of our facilities there was a small contingent of a few guys who did US subs - this is before the ELF comm to the subs - they were completely segregated in a secure locked area, and were the only guys with guns, and were told to shoot anybody who entered their area; even the crypto guys, who also had a small secure locked area, weren't given guns. Needless to say, while I was there, nobody ever tried to enter the sub area - no one was all that interested in getting shot.
Bit skeptical about the second item - although I wasn't aware that Australia only had a population of 18 meg. Must make the Chinese just drool. So much space, so few people - so near, and yet so far away, prospectively just another autonomous ethnic Chinese territory
what is the difference ?-- scale? Is reality only an illusion in some incomprehensible computer?
If so, why not know the possible future?
cheers
Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
Just a comment on your Australian article. Australia is a staunch ally of the USA and I think, short of total abandonment, Australia will not leave the US lead alliance. Australia may prefer the status-quo, however, Australia was the first nation to recognize the potential threat of China and the last 3 successive governments have been working in the background, diplomatically, to form anti-Chinese coalitions. I think this is further evidence of Australia’s commitment to US primacy in the Pacific.
Finally, short of nuclear attack, China has no ability to attack Australia. Not only is Australia’s bemoaned geographical isolation a positive in this case Australia is also capable of being 100% self-sufficient when it comes to the minimum needed in a modern society – food and energy. So there is no threat that China can make that would push Australia into the Chinese camp.
A war is coming, but unlike you I feel it will be a cold war. China and the USA will not trade blows directly. As we saw with the USSR nukes are an effective deterrent for both sides. However I do envisage potential local wars – most likely with Vietnam or some other non-US ally. This will begin a cycle of destruction for China as it has no effective allies, is surrounded by current or potential belligerents and is not self-sufficient. No nation can take on the world and hope to survive, let alone win. So short of something dramatic happening – like China becoming a full democracy – Cold War II and general instability in the Pacific is in our future.
But you know what they say about predicting the future…. could be completely wrong! Cant account for every variable.
Finally, short of nuclear attack, China has no ability to attack Australia. Not only is Australia’s bemoaned geographical isolation a positive in this case Australia is also capable of being 100% self-sufficient when it comes to the minimum needed in a modern society – food and energy. So there is no threat that China can make that would push Australia into the Chinese camp.
A war is coming, but unlike you I feel it will be a cold war. China and the USA will not trade blows directly. As we saw with the USSR nukes are an effective deterrent for both sides. However I do envisage potential local wars – most likely with Vietnam or some other non-US ally. This will begin a cycle of destruction for China as it has no effective allies, is surrounded by current or potential belligerents and is not self-sufficient. No nation can take on the world and hope to survive, let alone win. So short of something dramatic happening – like China becoming a full democracy – Cold War II and general instability in the Pacific is in our future.
But you know what they say about predicting the future…. could be completely wrong! Cant account for every variable.
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NoOneImportant
Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
I, like you have no idea what the future holds, but the Chinese confuse me.
They have become an industrial titian - the envy of much of the world. They have the capability of swamping those who surround them - economically speaking - over time. The ocean of money they possess may permit them to purchase their way into virtually every nation that surrounds them, and with those purchases peacefully bring industrial capabilities, and products that are desperately need by those who surround China. Their economic/industrial capability, and capacity, if docile, make them an irresistible target of attraction. As is happening in the Russian Vladivostok area where Chinese are being intentionally, and unintentionally lured into the the area for what they can bring with them - technical proficiency, and industrial commodities of all varieties. But this can only happen if the Chinese are not openly hostile, aggressive, and belligerent - for all these things will make the Chinese be seen not as benefactors, but as those to be feared.
Perhaps I am missing something but I see no existential external threat to China from any quarter other than Russia, and the US. The US's antipathy may be relatively quickly defused by eliminating the threats to those nations with whom America has formed military alliances... no threat to US allies, no need for great, and expensive US military presence - one threat eliminated. How could the immigration of large numbers of Chinese all over the world by the millions, and 10s of millions do anything but draw nations with large Chinese expatriot communities closer to China?
I guess I may be imputing the American mentality to the Chinese, as while I write this I am considering the brutality with which the Chinese deal with internal dissent. I guess that it is unreasonable to expect those who will brutalize their own people to treat other peoples equitably, justly, and compassionately. If that is indeed the case then the Chinese really are to be feared, as in that context, these are the people who murdered, worked to death, starved to death 34 - 70 million of their own people in the first 40 years of their modern national existence.
They have become an industrial titian - the envy of much of the world. They have the capability of swamping those who surround them - economically speaking - over time. The ocean of money they possess may permit them to purchase their way into virtually every nation that surrounds them, and with those purchases peacefully bring industrial capabilities, and products that are desperately need by those who surround China. Their economic/industrial capability, and capacity, if docile, make them an irresistible target of attraction. As is happening in the Russian Vladivostok area where Chinese are being intentionally, and unintentionally lured into the the area for what they can bring with them - technical proficiency, and industrial commodities of all varieties. But this can only happen if the Chinese are not openly hostile, aggressive, and belligerent - for all these things will make the Chinese be seen not as benefactors, but as those to be feared.
Perhaps I am missing something but I see no existential external threat to China from any quarter other than Russia, and the US. The US's antipathy may be relatively quickly defused by eliminating the threats to those nations with whom America has formed military alliances... no threat to US allies, no need for great, and expensive US military presence - one threat eliminated. How could the immigration of large numbers of Chinese all over the world by the millions, and 10s of millions do anything but draw nations with large Chinese expatriot communities closer to China?
I guess I may be imputing the American mentality to the Chinese, as while I write this I am considering the brutality with which the Chinese deal with internal dissent. I guess that it is unreasonable to expect those who will brutalize their own people to treat other peoples equitably, justly, and compassionately. If that is indeed the case then the Chinese really are to be feared, as in that context, these are the people who murdered, worked to death, starved to death 34 - 70 million of their own people in the first 40 years of their modern national existence.
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Guest
Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
Australia will probably just go nuclear and mount weapons on its submarines. (It will also probably expand its submarine fleet.) Australia need a nuclear deterrent. It can't afford to build up its armed forces, it has neither the money nor the manpower. Australia is also a white nation. (The racial factor should not be overlooked.) Australians are viewed as outsiders.
China could go a couple of different ways: war against external enemies or civil war. I think it will mostly like be war followed by civil war. (A low level civil conflict is already underway between ethnic groups and economic classes.) Then you can add massive environmental problems, intrinsic corruption, and unemployment to the mix.
China is a mess. I have never believed that the 21st century would belong to China. All the Chinese I know personally want to leave China and immigrate to the West.
China is hoping that America will collapse and be unable to defend its Asian allies. The US is hoping that China will implode before it can launch an attack. I think both events will occur at roughly the same time.
China could go a couple of different ways: war against external enemies or civil war. I think it will mostly like be war followed by civil war. (A low level civil conflict is already underway between ethnic groups and economic classes.) Then you can add massive environmental problems, intrinsic corruption, and unemployment to the mix.
China is a mess. I have never believed that the 21st century would belong to China. All the Chinese I know personally want to leave China and immigrate to the West.
China is hoping that America will collapse and be unable to defend its Asian allies. The US is hoping that China will implode before it can launch an attack. I think both events will occur at roughly the same time.
Re: 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $5
They use to confuse me as well, but I recommend this book to get into their head if you will:NoOneImportant wrote:I, like you have no idea what the future holds, but the Chinese confuse me.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Rise-China-Lo ... 0674066421
My poor summary:
[*]China has always seen itself as the Middle Kingdom - that is, China is the epitome of human culture and all other states are now or will become vassals to the beneficent "emperor". This is deeply ingrained in their culture.
[*]China overplayed its hand in 2008 thinking the USA's strength was gone. So it bared its true colors and has not reversed course since.
[*]Even though 80% of Chinese history involves China being ruled by outsiders they still believe in their superior culture and texts. They also use ancient texts like Sun Tzu's Art of War to guide their modern diplomacy and stance. Unfortunately books like Sun Tzu only make sense in the age of the Warring Kingdoms, not in the modern age.
[*] The Law of Strategy dictates China will fall without a sudden change in government or something else drastic happening (Civil War?). Law of Strategy says a nation can not build up its military, economic and diplomatic power simultaneously without provoking a response from its neighbors. See WW1 and WW2 Germany.
These 4 factors explain their seeming silly diplomacy and irrational rhetoric - within the context of the Warring Kingdoms of 500BC they make perfect sense.
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