24-Nov-13 World View -- China demands air space control

[John]

24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands


Ukraine commemorates the 80th anniversary of Stalin's Holodomor famine

** 24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131124



Contents:
Egypt expels Turkey's ambassador, Turkey retaliates
Russia's Putin scores a victory over the EU in Ukraine
Ukraine commemorates the 80th anniversary of Stalin's Holodomor famine
In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Ukraine, Russia, European Union, Vladimir Putin,
Yuri Boiko, Holodomor, Josef Stalin, Gareth Jones,
China, East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone,
Senkaku, Diaoyu, South China Sea, East China Sea

[Trevor]

The article contained this little tidbit as well: "He concluded the press conference by saying that China would create additional ADIZs “at the right moment after necessary preparations are completed.' " Makes me think this is far from the last ADIZ they're going to create. I would bet on the South China Sea being next, especially since countries like the Philippines can do far less to fight back.

[NoOneImportant]

Great observation.

The immediate question is when, and if the Japanese will challenge the Chinese air assertion - how can they not -; and what will the Chinese do if challenged? The Japanese might one-up the Chinese in addressing the issue by having the Americans assert the challenge out of the Marine air-station on Okinawa. Considering what happened in Syria that is not likely to happen with the weakness uber alles Red in the WH in place. Weakness is such a bad thing, but then again the unqualified Obama never lived through the cold war so he has no idea where weakness will ultimately take him/us; not so with the Chinese.

Considering the on-going purge of the US military that's taking place - 9 generals fired this year alone, and 197 colonels (the equivalent of an entire year's graduating class from the US Army War College) since 2010 - it just keeps getting better and better. Perhaps someone should tell him to just sit there in the Oval Office - and don't touch, or do anything, except possibly fire Holder.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/arnold ... ary-purge/
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/10 ... ommanders/

[NoOneImportant]

A bit more info re: Senkakus ADIZ - http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/the-batt ... the-skies/

[tim]

Will the U.S. defend Japan? Or will there be a few years after it starts in Asia before the U.S. gets involved?

Kick the can theory probably applies.

[NoOneImportant]

Don't know much Tim, but direct confrontations between nuclear armed adversaries that lead to conflict don't last for years - although I don't know for sure, as it has never happened; one would think that once the shooting starts it gets hot quickly. That said South Korea permits the North to periodically bloody the South. The North sunk a South Korean warship in 2010 killing 46 South Korean seamen. The South apparently took the punishment, and about 10 months later the North shelled a South Korean Island killing several, and injuring many more. In September of 1983 the Soviet Union shot down KLA007, a commercial 747 airliner out of New York, killing all 269 on board including at least one congressman. President Reagan's response was a blistering condemnation of the Soviet Union - no war.
This will give a brief description of both Korean encounters.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 907420.ece

Regarding forecasting, I am much better at forecasting the past, than the future. But as the Cuban Missile Crisis showed direct confrontations between nuclear armed belligerents are best avoided, as they are difficult to control, and provide the ever present danger of unintentional uncontrolled nuclear escalation.

The difficulty is that the generations that remember the disaster, and horror that was WWII are rapidly dying, and with them the memory of what the reality of great evil looks like. Those alive under 65 - the vast majority of those in both China, and Japan - know the great evil of WWII only vicariously - they don't know first hand the horror of mass starvation - technically not true of China as Mao starved 10 of millions - , torture, mass bombings of populated areas. And while they know the words: starvation, bombing, etc... they don't know the enormity of that reality. That generational memory is being rapidly lost in both China, and Japan. See John's description of Generational Dynamics:http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... basics.htm The loss of that memory is a problem, and may lead to real conflict - the physical fact that the dispute is between an Island nation may either help or hurt. China certainly isn't going to mount a conventional amphibious invasion of Japan, so China's choices are somewhat limited - brinksmanship with an occasional loss of life. This sort of tension can go on for years with extended periods of time without any difficulties, aperiodically these times are punctuated by a serious loss of life - but not war. Or in response to some, what appears to be obscure, incident one party or the other the may elect to escalate, and blow each other up. There will be, IMO, no conflict between the two that will last more than a brief period after the use of the first nuke - while Japan has publicly eschewed the development of nukes, the only ingredient that the Japanese don't possess to obtain nukes is will - they have everything else, including enough fissile material for a thousand or more fission devices. China's nuke capacity is estimated to range from 400+ to several thousand devices, and the estimates vary wildly. And the question that everyone is asking is will the US engage China in defense of Japan?

Syria, and the Iranian nuke agreement, were I running China, would lead me to believe that the US could not be relied upon to protect anyone - including perhaps one or more American cities - IMO. Obama, like a little boy, wants to be idolized, he has no life experiences that have prepared him for the seriousness of where he finds himself - he assumes responsibility for nothing, and declares everything that goes awry to be the fault of others; all symptoms of an unrepentant narcissist, and narcissists care for no one but themselves - they come to the aid of no one. Thus the Iranian agreement is made at Israel's expense, as Iran is permitted to keep its uranium enrichment capacity. So why would anyone not believe that this will ultimately lead to clandestine Iranian nuclear weapons development? There are only two possible responses, the US is stupid, or they don't care. Disregarding stupidity, we are left with the Suadis, gulf states, Egypt, and Israel are all at risk, for America will risk nothing for any of them.

Now having said that, why would Japan believe that the US will do for Japan what it would not do for the Saudis, Egypt, the gulf states, and Israel? Even more importantly why would China believe that? Thus all of the nations in the South China Sea might be perceived to be at risk.

And we elected him twice.

[NoOneImportant]

Tim, perhaps others might see it differently.