19-Aug-13 World View -- More analysis of Egypt

[John]

19-Aug-13 World View -- More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis

A relatively quiet day in Cairo - only 36 deaths

** 19-Aug-13 World View -- More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130819


Contents:
A relatively quiet day in Cairo - only 36 deaths
More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Syria, Rwanda, Bosnia, Amy Chua, Serbs, Croats,
Burma, Myanmar

[Reality Check]

... One might argue that there are hard fault lines between Egyptians on the one hand and Jews and Coptic Christians on the other hand, but except for isolated incidents we've seen little animosity between these groups. The one hard fault line that I've seen is with Bedouins in Egypt's Sinai.

And that's why I predict, with 90% probability, that there will not be a full-scale crisis civil war between pro- and anti-MB Egyptians. I'm willing to change my mind, but only when I see something significant, such as what's going on in Burma.

It does appear that the Muslim Brotherhood leadership are mobilizing their followers in an attempt to ethnically cleanse the Christians from Egypt.

This creates a dilemma for the Military. If the military allows the Christians to be driven out of the country, or the Christians are internally displaced within Egypt, or the Christian are intimidated from voting in the next election, or the Christians are in any other way disenfranchised, then the roughly 50-50 split in the last Presidential Election ( 51.xx to 48.xx in reality ) would become a 55% versus 45% Muslim Brotherhood majority. The Muslim Brotherhood may believe all the voters who voted for them before would vote for them again and they would win a landslide under those circumstances.

On the other hand, if the Military shoots down Muslims in mobs organized by the MB, and such mobs were attacking Christian churches, Christian businesses and Christian homes, then it may drive some Muslims in the military to switch sides, and the same may go for some of the current Muslim Brotherhood opponents who are also Muslims.

If Obama and Western Europeans declare the current military installed government illegitimate and continue to recognize the former dictatorial Muslim Brotherhood regime as having been elected in fair elections and exercising the will of the people, then a civil war between "devote Muslims" and "everyone else" might just develop. But their are many ifs, before the Muslim Brotherhood could start, let alone win, a true civil war.

Right now what is really going on in Egypt is a very large minority, willing to use any means, including murder / rape / arson, to return to power, is following the same play book the Brown Shirts used to take power in Germany. The communists, socialists, Roma and Hebrews in Germany paid the price for the Fascist rise to power in Germany. The Brotherhood in Egypt is attempting to use the Christians in Egypt for the same purpose.

If the majority of People in Egypt, and the governments in the United States and Western Europe, recognize the Muslim Brotherhood "beards" as just warmed over brown shirts , then the MB maybe slitting their own throats as well as the Christians.

[Reality Check]

I would also note the attacks are not just limited to Coptic Christians. These attacks are against multiple Christian denominations, including foreign missionary operations, in what appears to be an attempt to force the military to use force to protect Christians. The image of the Military killing Muslims to protect Christians appears to be what the MB is after here.

[John]

Some of the press is calling this "Coptic Christian ethnic cleansing."
The problem with that characterization is that the attacks are on
churches and monasteries and such, not on people, at least not so far.