29-Jun-13 World View -- Jihadists from Russia in Syria

[John]

29-Jun-13 World View -- Jihadists from Russia join opposition fighters in Syria

Southern Europe gives up the siesta, thanks to German demands

** 29-Jun-13 World View -- Jihadists from Russia join opposition fighters in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130629


Contents:
Jihadists from Russia join opposition fighters in Syria
Russia withdraws forces from Syria as tensions escalate
Terrorist attack in Iraq kills 19 Sunni 'traitors'
Southern Europe gives up the siesta, thanks to German demands


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Russia, North Caucasus, Chechnya, Syria,
Doku Umarov, Caucasus Emirate, Mikhail Bogdanov, Tartus,
Iraq, Spain, siesta

[Trevor]

From what I'm currently seeing in Syria, it looks like Assad is using the same tactics I mentioned he would over a week ago. In Homs Province, he's taking the surrounding towns, cutting the rebels off from their foreign suppliers, before moving on Homs itself. I'll make another guess and say that the next step, which may be taken at the same time, is to purge Damsacus of the rebels, and take the rebel held southern towns to cut them off from Jordan as well. Then he'll be able to take Aleppo.

A article I read here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 73695.html stated that it was much easier to negotiate surrenders when all of the combatants involved are Syrian, that it's much more difficult to persuade foreign fighters to give up the battle. The description I found in Talkalakh seemed like the Syrian Army pretty much walked in, and the rebels surrendered with minimal resistance, which could indicate that they are close to collapsing.

"Neither side has enough manpower or game-changing weaponry for winning the war outright." I'm certain Putin will be willing to give Assad all the support he needs. I don't think Obama's going to increase what little commitment we have to this fight.

"A five-month bloodbath centering on the battle for Aleppo, a city of 2.2 million inhabitants. Military experts don’t expect the rebels to hold out against Assad’s forces beyond late August." I don't think it's going to be that easy, especially since this appears to be the province where the majority of foreign fighters are massed. And you can expect more to join in.

"Over 19 people were killed on Friday in a series of terrorist bombings targeting Sunni militiamen who joined forces with U.S. troops fighting al-Qaeda during the Iraq war, and are therefore considered to be "traitors" by Sunni jihadist terrorists. The Sunni militiamen were protecting Shias attending the funeral of a Shia leader. Sectarian violence in Syria has been increasing steadily since December, 2011, when the American troops completely withdrew from Iraq, and Iraq has now become a major battlefield in the sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias that's spreading throughout the Mideast."

Aren't they supposed to be opposed to violence, being that they're in an awakening area? Seems like it's just getting worse over there, although not anywhere near what it was in 2006-2007.

[John]

Dear Trevor,

> A article I read here:
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 73695.html
> stated that it was much easier to negotiate surrenders when all of
> the combatants involved are Syrian, that it's much more difficult
> to persuade foreign fighters to give up the battle. The
> description I found in Talkalakh seemed like the Syrian Army
> pretty much walked in, and the rebels surrendered with minimal
> resistance, which could indicate that they are close to
> collapsing.

This is a clear example of the difference between Awakening era
behavior (Syrians who are willing to negotiate surrender) versus
Crisis era behavior (foreign fighters not willing to negotiate).

> Aren't they supposed to be opposed to violence, being that they're
> in an awakening area? Seems like it's just getting worse over
> there, although not anywhere near what it was in 2006-2007.

The violence is worsening because of foreign fighters getting
involved. Even in an Awakening era, people will use violence if they
must to protect themselves and their families, or if their political
leaders force them to. Other countries are determined to take
advantage of the Syria conflict as a proxy war between Shias and
Sunnis.

Here are a couple of articles where I discussed some of these issues.
In both Iraq and Afghanistan, people in the local population refuse to
become suicide bombers or allow their children to become suicide
bombers. The result is that al-Qaeda in Iraq had to import all its
suicide bombers from Jordan and Saudi Arabia, while the Afghan Taliban
had to import their suicide bombers from Pakistan.

** Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 070401.htm


** Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e091102

[bluebird]

I keep getting confused between Shias and Sunnis because some countries have both. So at some future time, the Clash of Civilizations will not necessarily be country vs country, but rather lines of the clash will be Shias vs Sunnis resulting in new boundaries for some of those countries? Also, are there more Sunnis than Shias?

[John]

> I keep getting confused between Shias and Sunnis because some
> countries have both. So at some future time, the Clash of
> Civilizations will not necessarily be country vs country, but
> rather lines of the clash will be Shias vs Sunnis resulting in new
> boundaries for some of those countries? Also, are there more
> Sunnis than Shias?"

Persia/Iran and east Iraq are the center of Shia Islam. Other
countries have minority populations of Shias, usually with the size of
the minority inversely proportional to the country's distance from
Iran. So you have some Shia groups in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the
Alawites branch in western Syria, the Houthi branch in northern Yemen,
the Hazaras in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and other communities in
central Asia. The Sunni/Shia split occurred in the 680s, and the
Hindus and the Shias have been allied against the Sunnis since then.
There are numerous Sunni Muslim regions and countries far from the
Mideast -- northern Africa, the Mideast, the Balkans, the Crimea, the
Caucasus, central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, continuing all the way
down to southern Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

John

[John]

Big map of Sunni and Shia countries



http://worldgeoshiite.blogspot.com/2012 ... ority.html

[bluebird]

Thanks for finding the map of Sunni and Shia. Clearly shows the small minority of countries that are Shia.

edit to add the direct link for the map
http://worldgeoshiite.blogspot.com/2012 ... ority.html

[Vsevelopwe]

A great exchange of information.