27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

[John]

> This is delusional, China's objective is to invade the disputed
> territories with the minimum of opposition possible. China would
> NOT want a nuclear Japan because that would mean Japan would
> return to effective great power status. What use could China
> possibly want with Nuclear rearmed japan? Such a creation would be
> directly contrary to Chinese National Interests AND Chinese
> ambitions, This is especially true given the bad experience the
> Chinese had the last time Japan was an true great power on the
> world stage.

Once again, you seem to be reading comprehension challenged. The
comment does not say that China WANTS Japan to become militaristic.
The comment says that China's policies are FORCING Japan to become
militaristic.

[CH86]

> This is delusional, China's objective is to invade the disputed
> territories with the minimum of opposition possible. China would
> NOT want a nuclear Japan because that would mean Japan would
> return to effective great power status. What use could China
> possibly want with Nuclear rearmed japan? Such a creation would be
> directly contrary to Chinese National Interests AND Chinese
> ambitions, This is especially true given the bad experience the
> Chinese had the last time Japan was an true great power on the
> world stage.

Once again, you seem to be reading comprehension challenged. The
comment does not say that China WANTS Japan to become militaristic.
The comment says that China's policies are FORCING Japan to become
militaristic.

Ok thanks, that makes more sense.

[PasserBy]

Any chance the deal could be used to turn Kim against China? America helps reunite the peninsula safely (with denuclearization?) and Kim breaks ties with China. If his early snub was authentic (likely) then he already has expressed a desire for autonomy. China views Korea as part of the kingdom, and it would annoy them to no end if that was severed. It's a win for Kim and he does more than any of his predecessors. What more could a crisis leader want? If he did it, it would also be public enough to have some level of irreversibly. Obviously it would be hard to tell if he actually fully commits.

[Cynic Hero 86]

The Kim Dynasty is following their own Agenda. North Korea has not been truly aligned with China since it sided with the Soviets during the Sino-Soviet split during the 1960s.

[thomasglee]

A great article which I believe is spot on.

Excerpts:

China's idea of the perfect Korean settlement is simple: North Korea should denuclearise completely in return for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the peninsula. In one stroke, China would solve the problem of its tiresome neighbor's outsize military ambitions and capabilities and-more importantly for Beijing-reduce Washington's influence and interest in northeast Asia. This was doubtless the deal which Kim Jong-un was encouraged to negotiate by Xi during his visit to Beijing in late March 2018.

South Korea would be satisfied by the outcome. But it needs to remember that Pyongyang's ultimate goal has never changed: the unification of Korea on its terms. With a reduced U.S. commitment to the region (and an inevitable reduction in trust between Washington and Seoul), North Korea's aim would be a few steps closer.

South Korea Has Reassessed the Value of its American Alliance

[Guest]

Here's the most relevant part:

South Korea would be satisfied by the outcome. But it needs to remember that Pyongyang's ultimate goal has never changed: the unification of Korea on its terms. With a reduced U.S. commitment to the region (and an inevitable reduction in trust between Washington and Seoul), North Korea's aim would be a few steps closer.

You can't help stupid. If SK goes along with this, they are signing their own death warrants. Or volunteering to become slaves.

[thomasglee]

Here's the most relevant part:

South Korea would be satisfied by the outcome. But it needs to remember that Pyongyang's ultimate goal has never changed: the unification of Korea on its terms. With a reduced U.S. commitment to the region (and an inevitable reduction in trust between Washington and Seoul), North Korea's aim would be a few steps closer.

You can't help stupid. If SK goes along with this, they are signing their own death warrants. Or volunteering to become slaves.

You're exactly right. The Left in Korea has grown very strong. Korean manufacturing is HIGHLY reliant upon China's labor force, rare earth metals, and manufacturing capacity. It seems an SK/NK/CN alliance is forming where each side capitulates just enough to make the other happy. It appears as if China is encouraging a "united" Korea as a hedge against the west and Japan. It's a repeat of history. Throughout history, Chinese emperors have allowed the existence of a semi-independent, but politically aligned Korean peninsula that acted as a buffer between them and Japan.

Frankly, an alignment makes sense. Korea has the technology; China has the manufacturing capacity and excellent (often stolen) technologies of their own; while North Korea will provide a new market for development and exploitation.

A more open North Korea would give relief to the Seoul metro area by opening new areas to development not that far from Seoul which is badly needed. The last time I visited the DMZ area, about three years ago, high-rise apartments and superhighways occupied large swaths of real estate running along portions of the DMZ's south barrier fence and the Imjin River.

Also, the new rich in Pyongyang, many who are around KJU's age, want to be able to openly and freely travel around Asia and the world. If things loosen in North Korea, it will assuage any potential backlash as the opportunities created will, for a time, cover the failures of the regime - for a while.

[John]

> A great article which I believe is spot on.

> Excerpts:

>> China's idea of the perfect Korean settlement is simple: North
>> Korea should denuclearise completely in return for the
>> withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the peninsula. In one
>> stroke, China would solve the problem of its tiresome
>> neighbor's outsize military ambitions and capabilities
>> and-more importantly for Beijing-reduce Washington's influence
>> and interest in northeast Asia. This was doubtless the deal
>> which Kim Jong-un was encouraged to negotiate by Xi during his
>> visit to Beijing in late March 2018.

>> South Korea would be satisfied by the outcome. But it needs to
>> remember that Pyongyang's ultimate goal has never changed: the
>> unification of Korea on its terms. With a reduced
>> U.S. commitment to the region (and an inevitable reduction in
>> trust between Washington and Seoul), North Korea's aim would
>> be a few steps closer.

> South Korea Has Reassessed the Value of its American Alliance

> https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_a ... n-alliance

I don't believe any of what's going on. We've had three American
hostages freed, when Kim could easily abduct three more American
hostages at any time.

Then we have the extremely generous offer to shut the Mantap Mountain
test site, when the site is even worse off than previously thought.

https://www.livescience.com/62534-north ... ntain.html

The amount of utter garbage in the media is mind-boggling, although
there's always so much garbage in the media, I suppose there's nothing
new. Expectations are so high for the June 12 meeting in Singapore
that they couldn't be met even if anyone had defined the word
"denuclearization."

In my opinion, what we're most likely to see in the next few weeks is
a repeat of the Ronald Reagan - Mikhail Gorbachev meeting in
Reykjavik, Iceland, on October 11, 1986.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-his ... -reykjavik

[Guest]

I don't follow you, John. Do you think SK will fall into the trap, or will the US refuse to play along and save the dim witted South Koreans?

[thomasglee]

I don't follow you, John. Do you think SK will fall into the trap, or will the US refuse to play along and save the dim-witted South Koreans?

I am not quite sure what John's thinking is either, but if I were a betting man, I would bet that the two Koreas are going to fall in lockstep with China. I am seriously starting to believe that the Koreas are going to align with China (or at least feign neutrality) against the USA. It looks to me like Trump might fall into the trap of believing the Koreans. I always use an analogy when friends ask me about Korea: I could be stuck in a lifeboat with two Koreans and nobody else. One Korean I could have just met and the other, I may have known for 20 years. The two of them are strangers to each other; having never met before. At some point, if we were to realize that if just one person were gone, two of the three could survive, then I guarantee you, I'd be the one thrown out of the lifeboat. Their duty to each other as Koreans would far outweigh any loyalty with a waegukin (외국인 - a foreigner).