27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

[Tom Mazanec]

Withdraw from Korea and nuke the Chinese and the North Koreans from a distance.

guest, China has ~250 nuclear weapons.
Which 250 American cities do you want to lose?

[CH86]

Removing American troops is exactly what Donald Trump wants to happen. And I know a lot of Americans would agree with that.

Americans want a lot of things. Removing troops will lead to war on the peninsula. A war that we will be drug into, one way or another. None of this happens in a vacuum.

War is coming no matter what. How is having 28,000 US soldiers and their dependents in the line of fire going to change anything? It won't. It will only add to our troubles. Withdraw from Korea and nuke the Chinese and the North Koreans from a distance.

North Korean and Chinese objectives in Korea are fundamentally directed primarily against South Korea. The US is viewed primarily as a force to be pushed away to a safe distance allowing the Norks to conquer the south unopposed.

[CH86]

Withdraw from Korea and nuke the Chinese and the North Koreans from a distance.

guest, China has ~250 nuclear weapons.
Which 250 American cities do you want to lose?

China shares borders with Russia India, Vietnam and Japan. Even in a Nuclear war they would therefore only be able to direct about 1/3 of their nuclear arsenal against the US. Also in War where soldiers kill soldiers any response would be directed at primarily military targets

[CH86]

An invasion of North Korea is Preferable to a withdrawal from Korea. However the current Status Quo is the worst position of all three options.

[CH86]

The scenario you propose would require us breaking several treaties and it would push China into having no other option but to respond. If you think we could sell out allies like India and Taiwan without any repercussions from other allies, then you really do not understand geopolitics and you discount how much such a sell out would damage the US in the eyes of the world.

Countries Break Treaties all the time: It's called national interests.

[Guest]

Withdraw from Korea and nuke the Chinese and the North Koreans from a distance.

guest, China has ~250 nuclear weapons.
Which 250 American cities do you want to lose?

We are going to lose American cities to Chinese and North Korean nukes anyway. How many Chinese cities would the Chinese like to lose? That's the question.

[Trevor]

Withdraw from Korea and nuke the Chinese and the North Koreans from a distance.

guest, China has ~250 nuclear weapons.
Which 250 American cities do you want to lose?

It would actually take a lot more than one nuclear weapon to destroy a city, particularly a major city. Such weapons are very destructive, but not infinitely destructive.

One thing I definitely wish we'd make more effort in is civil defense, but I won't hold my breath on it.

[thomasglee]

Removing American troops is exactly what Donald Trump wants to happen. And I know a lot of Americans would agree with that.

Americans want a lot of things. Removing troops will lead to war on the peninsula. A war that we will be drug into, one way or another. None of this happens in a vacuum.

War is coming no matter what. How is having 28,000 US soldiers and their dependents in the line of fire going to change anything? It won't. It will only add to our troubles. Withdraw from Korea and nuke the Chinese and the North Koreans from a distance.

Our troops are a tripwire. I was stationed along the DMZ for three years. We always knew we had a "die in place" mission. Why? Because when American troops die, Americans will back a war. If we withdraw and the norKs invaded, the American people would resist our involvement. But eventually, we would get involved anyway, so it's best to be involved from day one than trying to come into the fray later when it will be harder and require another invasion of a fully occupied country.

If we leave and China occupies the entire peninsula, then we will have a bigger, more damaging fight on our hands.

Perhaps we should try to goad China into war before they are ready. It might be a strategic move. But to think (as CH does) that we can nuke the north without expecting any repercussions from China is just wrong.

[thomasglee]

Withdraw from Korea and nuke the Chinese and the North Koreans from a distance.

guest, China has ~250 nuclear weapons.
Which 250 American cities do you want to lose?

China shares borders with Russia India, Vietnam and Japan. Even in a Nuclear war they would therefore only be able to direct about 1/3 of their nuclear arsenal against the US. Also in War where soldiers kill soldiers any response would be directed at primarily military targets

China and Japan do not share a border.

[thomasglee]

The scenario you propose would require us breaking several treaties and it would push China into having no other option but to respond. If you think we could sell out allies like India and Taiwan without any repercussions from other allies, then you really do not understand geopolitics and you discount how much such a sell out would damage the US in the eyes of the world.

Countries Break Treaties all the time: It's called national interests.

You missed the overall point. If we break treaties, other break treaties with us. Then we are a fighting alone. Not a smart move.