Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 09-Aug-2019 World View: Reunification of Ireland with Northern Ireland

From EuroIntel:

Could a no-deal Brexit fuel unification for Ireland?

With high chances of a no-deal Brexit, the debate about a border poll
on uniting Northern Ireland and the Republic is re-emerging. While at
this point such a scenario is still hypothetical even if the UK were
to crash out of the EU without a deal in October, no-deal Brexit may
well accelerate the the process and increase the likelihood of such a
poll. A debate about it is always tricky as it easily engages the
hearts more than the minds of unionists loyal to the UK, and of Irish
nationalists who may think of unification as creating just a bigger
Ireland.

Leo Varadkar struck the right tone in Northern Ireland by saying that
a united Ireland would be a different state with a different
constitution. The process would not be one of annexation or
territorial addition. He made no reference to German unification, or
to former prime minister Enda Kenny. During his time in office Kenny
received reassurance from the EU that after unification it would
automatically re-admit Northern Ireland without the Republic having to
reapply for EU membership. Ireland would gain more territory, that was
it. One can see why this did not go down well with the unionists.

Varadkar firmly put his feet on different ground. A new constitution,
and a different if not a new state, would be the result of
unification. The constitution of a united Ireland would have to sort
out many differences. For once the official language in Ireland is
Gaelic, while it is English in Northern Ireland. The head of state is
the president in the Republic and the Queen for Northern
Ireland. There are different anthems, currencies, measurements, flags
and capitals. All emotional issues for many.

But a new constitution is not so straightforward either, writes Newton
Emerson. According to the Belfast agreement, two separate border polls
would have to be held on the issue of unification. In the Republic a
campaign for a new constitution could well alienate those who are fond
of the existing one. In Northern Ireland, the argument for unification
may have better chances to win as British politics is currently highly
unpredictable, divisive, and against the basic interests of most in
the North.

Under a no-deal Brexit, unification suddenly becomes a credible
goal. But to win this poll, the government has to stay clear of
trouble with an alternative that neither sides will refuse.

[utahbob]

John,
In Northern Ireland, it would not be smooth sailing for the Republic of Ireland to expand and absorb the north. I have family in the North who are Nationalist and some Republicans. It goes back generations and that is part of the reason I am in America. Many who favor a united Ireland are looking at their wallets very carefully and into the future now. The romantic view of historical destiny for a united 32 counties is smacking up against reality. Ireland is notionally Irish in reality. Not many speak Irish anymore. Polish is the second common language in Ireland. It is not a requirement for employment in the government now. Irish culture is going to the wayside and with massive immigration, the new comers are not embracing it. It may be united due to the sentiment of sticking it in the British eye, right past wrongs but at a high cost. How long will those cost be borne is anybody’s guess. I doubt it will not happen now, since the cost to placate the Unionist (nothing will win over the loyalists) will be too high. Only a long term demographic shift over two or three generations (births/babies) to the nationalist/republican side could possibly make this happen. The Good Friday agreement was a good fudge for the situation of the day, but that day is gone.

[John]

** 09-Aug-2019 World View: Resolving Ireland differences

> John, In Northern Ireland, it would not be smooth sailing for the
> Republic of Ireland to expand and absorb the north. I have family
> in the North who are Nationalist and some Republicans. It goes
> back generations and that is part of the reason I am in
> America. Many who favor a united Ireland are looking at their
> wallets very carefully and into the future now. The romantic view
> of historical destiny for a united 32 counties is smacking up
> against reality. Ireland is notionally Irish in reality. Not many
> speak Irish anymore. Polish is the second common language in
> Ireland. It is not a requirement for employment in the government
> now. Irish culture is going to the wayside and with massive
> immigration, the new comers are not embracing it. It may be united
> due to the sentiment of sticking it in the British eye, right past
> wrongs but at a high cost. How long will those cost be borne is
> anybody’s guess. I doubt it will not happen now, since the cost to
> placate the Unionist (nothing will win over the loyalists) will be
> too high. Only a long term demographic shift over two or three
> generations (births/babies) to the nationalist/republican side
> could possibly make this happen. The Good Friday agreement was a
> good fudge for the situation of the day, but that day is
> gone.

I guess the most shocking thing about what you've written is that
Polish is spoken more than Gaelic. Is that really true?

It's been my opinion for over a year that the Brexit debate will end
with a "no-deal Brexit." The reason is that a no-deal Brexit
is the default option, and therefore it's the only option that
doesn't require any group to negotiate and compromise with another
group, and Gen-Xers are unable to negotiate and compromise.

A lot of people think we're still in the 1990s, when the World War II
survivors were running things. Those people were able to negotiate
and compromise. But Gen-Xers are completely lacking in those skills,
and replace them with total contempt and hatred for anyone who doesn't
agree with them.

So, Boris Johnson is in charge in Britain, and he favors the default
option, which is no-deal Brexit on October 31. This is putting other
politicians (the "remainers") into a panic, because once Brexit
occurs, it's irrevocable.

It's sorta funny that after the referendum passed in 2016,
I wrote repeatedly that there was no solution to the Irish border
problem -- not that no politician was clever enough to find a solution,
but that no solution exists, given the imposed restraints (no
tariffs between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and no tariffs between
Northern Ireland and England, and Britain not in the EU).

So now it's the Irish border problem that's forcing the no-deal
Brexit. But of course that doesn't solve the Irish border problem
either. There will still be tariffs and border posts separating
Ireland and Northern Ireland.

So trying to reunify Ireland would be a move of desperation. If
it could be accomplished, then Northern Ireland and Ireland
would both be in the EU (as they are today), so there would
be no tariffs or border posts within Ireland.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the split in Ireland
is a manifestation of the fault line between the indigenous Gaelic
population vs the Scottish and English invaders. There have been
centuries of generational crisis wars between these two populations,
and the Gaelics have accused the English of genocide and ethnic
cleansing.

So there's a great deal of hatred and animosity between these groups,
as evidenced by the continuing violent clashes in "The Troubles,"
which was only resolved by the Good Friday agreement in 1998.

So you say that your family is on both sides -- the Nationalists
(descendants of the invaders) and the Republicans (the indigenous
Gaelics). So it must be a very interesting story about
why you fled to America.

So as you say, "it would not be smooth sailing for the Republic of
Ireland to expand and absorb the north." However, to be fair, that's
what Leo Varadkar is specifically rejecting. He's proposing a whole
new Ireland, with a new constitution, which resolves such differences
as languages, anthems, currencies, measurements, flags and capitals.

That's a tall order, and it shouldn't take more than a century
to reach agreement on all those issues.

Related Articles:

** 2-Jan-19 World View -- Brexit chaos entangles issue of Iranian migrants crossing English Channel
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190102


** 19-Oct-18 World View -- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181019


** 02-Aug-18 World View -- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180802


** 26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160626

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 09-Aug-2019 World View: Resolving Ireland differences

> John, In Northern Ireland, it would ...

I guess the most shocking thing about what you've written is that
Polish is spoken more than Gaelic. Is that really true?

Gaeilge (the Irish language) hasn't been a majority language on the island of Ireland for several hundred years,.. but English is the most spoken (99%), and
Gaeilge 36% (although only about 10% are fluent)
Ulster Scots 0.9% (a variety of "Older" English from 17th century "lowland" Scotland)
Shelta (Romani "Traveler" speak) 30,000

Polish (119,526 speakers)
German (27,342)
French (56,430)
Japanese (1,309)
Mandarin (15,166)



My Gaeilge sucks, of course. I used to know quite a few low level conversational phrases, as well as most of the Catholic Mass (in Gaeilge, "An tAifreann"), and bits and pieces of little things that I've forgotten entirely. I wonder if "Ulysses" by Joyce is available in the old language? Right,.. something else to look up.

It's been my opinion for over a year that the Brexit debate will end
with a "no-deal Brexit." The reason is that a no-deal Brexit
is the default option, and therefore it's the only option that
doesn't require any group to negotiate and compromise with another
group, and Gen-Xers are unable to negotiate and compromise. ...

So trying to reunify Ireland would be a move of desperation. ...

So as you say, "it would not be smooth sailing for the Republic of
Ireland to expand and absorb the north." However, to be fair, that's
what Leo Varadkar is specifically rejecting. He's proposing a whole
new Ireland, with a new constitution, which resolves such differences
as languages, anthems, currencies, measurements, flags and capitals.

That's a tall order, and it shouldn't take more than a century
to reach agreement on all those issues.

...

The Loyalists in The North will never relinquish their UK affiliation, so the only possibility for real "reunification" (as that's NOT the right word, but we'll leave that off for now) is for the Loyalists to emigrate "back" to the UK (likely only under some variety of duress).

There WILL be border "controls" between the Republic and Northern Ireland, and there WILL therefore be violence at those points.

But the "New Troubles" won't likely last very long, as (the common) people have gotten used to "peace" and will stomp down the "violent ones" in short order, probably driving them out of the country to hang out with the Basque Militants somewhere in Algeria,.. or some such ludicrous situation.

A "fully Irish" Ireland will have to wait for at least 2 generations (44ish years) or more likely 4 or 5 more generations (88 to 110 years), until the "cultural DNA" has attenuated sufficiently.

[John]

10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down

Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370

** 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190810



Contents:
Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status
Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India
Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Article 370, Srinagar, Eid Ul Azha, Festival of the Sacrifice,
Donald Trump, Imran Khan, Afghanistan

[Guest]

"Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! "

My comment: President Trump's tweet from this article is far more important than the health of an artificial construct: a 'global shipping' industry. It is about the health, life and death of way too many Americans. Until you know someone who has lost their life from the scourge of Fentanyl, then it is merely an academic issue for faux libertarians to debate that selling Fentanyl is a 'victimless crime" It is so wonderful to see President Trump this critical life or death issue to trade. Dictator Xi loves money. He uses people. The opposite of what Lord Jesus wants us all to do. Love people. Use money.

[Guest]

A "fully Irish" Ireland will have to wait for at least 2 generations (44ish years) or more likely 4 or 5 more generations (88 to 110 years), until the "cultural DNA" has attenuated sufficiently.

When Ireland is black and Pakistani, then unification will be even less possible as the blacks and Pakistanis will be divvying up the country into racial segregated ghettos. (and no, I'm not kidding). I know we are not supposed to talk about the elephant in the room, but for anyone who has spent anytime at all in the UK or Ireland will tell you, immigration is reshaping both countries rapidly. All this talk about the native Irish and the protestant colonists in the north are already moot.

What does it matter what the native population thinks or wants? European governments ignore their own populations anyway. They would rather pander to illegal migrant benefit scroungers. That's the truth. The Irish taxpayer want his money back. They want their country back from the migrants.

The PM of Ireland is a homosexual Hindu Indian. How progressive. Soon the UK will have a Pakistani jihadi apologist as the mayor of London. Oh, wait...

[John]

** 10-Aug-2019 World View: Generational memory and the future of Ireland

> Gaeilge (the Irish language) hasn't been a majority language on
> the island of Ireland for several hundred years,.. but English is
> the most spoken (99%), and

> Gaeilge 36% (although only about 10% are fluent)
> Ulster Scots 0.9% (a variety of "Older" English from 17th century "lowland" Scotland)
> Shelta (Romani "Traveler" speak) 30,000
> Polish (119,526 speakers)
> German (27,342)
> French (56,430)
> Japanese (1,309)
> Mandarin (15,166)



> My Gaeilge sucks, of course. I used to know quite a few low level
> conversational phrases, as well as
> most of the Catholic Mass (in Gaeilge, "An tAifreann"),
> and bits and pieces of little things that I've forgotten
> entirely. I wonder if "Ulysses" by Joyce is available in the old
> language? Right,.. something else to look up.

For what it's worth, here's what the CIA World Factbook says:

> English (official, the language generally used), Irish (Gaelic or
> Gaeilge) (official, spoken by approximately 39.8% of the
> population as of 2016; mainly spoken in areas along Ireland's
> western coast known as gaeltachtai, which are officially
> recognized regions where Irish is the predominant language)

> https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... os/ei.html

> The Loyalists in The North will never relinquish their UK
> affiliation, so the only possibility for real "reunification" (as
> that's NOT the right word, but we'll leave that off for now) is
> for the Loyalists to emigrate "back" to the UK (likely only under
> some variety of duress).

Why isn't reunification the right word? Wasn't Ireland unified under
English rule prior to 1922?

> There WILL be border "controls" between the Republic and Northern
> Ireland, and there WILL therefore be violence at those
> points.

That seems pretty certain, doesn't it.

> But the "New Troubles" won't likely last very long, as (the
> common) people have gotten used to "peace" and will stomp down the
> "violent ones" in short order, probably driving them out of the
> country to hang out with the Basque Militants somewhere in
> Algeria,.. or some such ludicrous situation.

> A "fully Irish" Ireland will have to wait
> for at least 2 generations (44ish years) or more likely 4 or 5
> more generations (88 to 110 years), until the "cultural DNA" has
> attenuated sufficiently.

Now here we have a problem, because generations don't work that
way. In fact, generations work in the opposite way.

If two ordinary people have a bitter feud in their 20s, then forty
years later, when they're in the 60s, the memories of the feud would
have faded, and the two people will have reconciled. But it works the
opposite way with generations.

If two groups have a generational crisis war during the XX20s, then
forty years later, in the XX60s, the memory of the war may have faded
in the minds of the survivors, but for the generations growing up
after the war, the feud does not fade, but is renewed.

I believe that a significant part of the mechanism is as follows: The
survivors of the war are completely traumatized, and spend the rest of
their lives trying to make sure it never happens again. However, as
their children are growing up, there are inevitably stories about the
war, particularly bitter stories about the atrocities committed during
the war. And, not surprisingly, the children in each group never hear
about the atrocities committed by their parents, but only about the
atrocities committed by the parents of the children on the other side.
After the war, during the Recovery and Awakening eras, one side will
inevitably be economically better off than the other, and that adds to
the renewal of the "feud." In the following decades, the traumatized
survivors try to prevent anything serious from happening, but they're
only marginally successful, and once they're gone, a new full-scale
war breaks out.

With regard to children hearing only about atrocities committed by the
other side, not by the atrocities committed by their own side: One
thing I've noticed repeatedly is that people tell me that their
grandparents fought in WW II but they refuse to talk about it. I
believe that it's because they're ashamed of their own actions,
including such things as rape or torture, which are pretty common on
all sides in a generational crisis war. After all, if you're a
soldier and you see a lone girl, and you know that her brother or
father or uncle has just killed all your friends, why shouldn't you
rape her? What have you got to lose? (Ironically, her brother
killing all your friends is just an ordinary act of war, but you
raping her is a war crime. Go figure.) But of course those become
acts of shame when the war ends, but subjects of discussion when they
were committed by the other side.

[John]

** 10-Aug-2019 World View: Fentanyl and Opium Wars

> "Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop
> the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened,
> and many Americans continue to die! "

> My comment: President Trump's tweet from this article is far more
> important than the health of an artificial construct: a 'global
> shipping' industry. It is about the health, life and death of way
> too many Americans. Until you know someone who has lost their life
> from the scourge of Fentanyl, then it is merely an academic issue
> for faux libertarians to debate that selling Fentanyl is a
> 'victimless crime" It is so wonderful to see President Trump this
> critical life or death issue to trade. Dictator Xi loves money. He
> uses people. The opposite of what Lord Jesus wants us all to
> do. Love people. Use money.

In my opinion, the CCP are taking a great deal of pleasure and delight
in America's Fentanyl problem, because they delusionally blame all
their troubles on the Opium Wars of the 1840s.

[John]

> ** 10-Aug-2019 World View: Ireland's immigrants

> A "fully Irish" Ireland will have to wait for at least 2
> generations (44ish years) or more likely 4 or 5 more generations
> (88 to 110 years), until the "cultural DNA" has attenuated
> sufficiently.

> When Ireland is black and Pakistani, then unification will be even
> less possible as the blacks and Pakistanis will be divvying up the
> country into racial segregated ghettos. (and no, I'm not
> kidding). I know we are not supposed to talk about the elephant in
> the room, but for anyone who has spent anytime at all in the UK or
> Ireland will tell you, immigration is reshaping both countries
> rapidly. All this talk about the native Irish and the protestant
> colonists in the north are already moot.

> What does it matter what the native population thinks or wants?
> European governments ignore their own populations anyway. They
> would rather pander to illegal migrant benefit scroungers. That's
> the truth. The Irish taxpayer want his money back. They want their
> country back from the migrants.

> The PM of Ireland is a homosexual Hindu Indian. How
> progressive. Soon the UK will have a Pakistani jihadi apologist as
> the mayor of London. Oh, wait...

What are you babbling about? Most immigrants to Ireland are Polish,
and most of them are Catholic, just like the Irish. Only 1.3% of the
people in Ireland are Muslim.