Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Navigator
Posts: 966
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Ukraine Situation Resolution

Post by Navigator »

Right now, both the Ukrainians and the Russians have said that they are making progress in peace talks.

Similar to the 1940 Finland situation, Russia needs to find a political “win” so that it can disengage and resupply/reorganize.

From a German source (Julian Roepke – reporter for Bild), it is reported that Russia will take the entire provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk (the Russian “recognized” republics) as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhya provinces (see map). This would link Russia to the previously seized Crimea (Krym on the map).

Image

I find this plausible. Putin would be able to say he “achieved his objectives” and even say Russia “won” the war.

However, the Ukrainian Army (and people) may not want to go along with this, and may keep fighting. If so, the Russians may pull back forward elements, especially those overextended towards Kiev, and just blast away at all Ukrainians until they are overwhelmed. There is no possibility of Russia surrendering to the Ukrainians, or even them “giving up and just going home”.

Please recognize that while the Russians have taken serious losses, so have the Ukrainians. I would surmise that the Ukrainians also have serious supply issues, especially in regard to bullets and artillery shells. Also, I am hearing that some (maybe many) Ukrainian units are melting away in the face of massive Russian artillery barrages.

As I mentioned previously, war is a giant Pandora’s Box. Nobody knows exactly what will happen when the box is opened, and nobody really knows what the final resolution will be.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

spottybrowncow wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:41 pm
Guest wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:01 am
Roll eyes... Rumble and Bit-Chute are where alt-right nut jobs and conspiracy theorists are exiled to after YT kicks them off.
This is a very misleading statement. It implies that that's all these alternative outlets contain. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Many very credible sources have been removed or stigmatized by left-wing media sites such as yoube, twitter, facebook, with perhaps the most egregious example being the American Heart Association being labeled unsafe by twitter for publishing data showing an increased risk of heart disease after getting Covid MRNA shot.

So yes, fringe alt-right wackos are going to these alternative sites, but unfortunately, many with very valid arguments that detract from the official narrative also have to go there. If mainstream social media was unbiased, there would be no need for that.
A generalization, perhaps, but not misleading. YT is the preferred platform by a million miles. Virtually everyone booted from YT ends up on one of the alt sites like Odyssey, Bitchute, etc. Most of what I see on these sites are YT exiles. Do these exiles provided any value? Not much, in my opinion. What I see are content creators who see false flags everywhere. There are non alt-right content creators on these platforms, but most of those seem to be mirror sites.

Yes, YT's censorship is sometimes extreme, but it doesn't make most of the YT exiles on Bitchute suddenly credible.

I don't support censorship (unless the content violates the law), but if there really was an audience for these people, they would migrate to the new platforms, They haven't. It seems a lot of the alt-right crowd are just LARPing.

As someone who has watched the alt-right develop for years, I can attest to the massive drop in views (sometimes 99%) when these people move to Bitchute, Telegram, etc. The exiles constantly complain about this themselves.

Trevor
Posts: 1237
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

Wars are easy to start. They're a lot harder to end.

Trouble is, who can possibly trust Putin at this point? Even if the Ukrainians actually agree to this deal, which I personally doubt, what's going to stop Putin from trying again in a year or two, once some of the difficulties in his military have been ironed out? He underestimated the west's response, given the previous track record of overlooking his aggression.

Current estimates are that Russia's lost around 6,000 people and the Ukrainians 5,000 soldiers, with at least a few thousand civilians dead. Given what it's already cost Russia, Putin's got to look like he's obtained a big victory. They don't tolerate weakness over there. Ukraine doesn't have a lot of natural defenses and while we're cheering them on, the odds are still against them. The same people claiming Russia's doomed are often the same individuals stating Ukraine would collapse in a matter of days a month ago.

I do not expect Putin's going to back down, at least not without a much bigger victory than a couple of breakaway provinces. He's spent more than a decade modernizing their armed forces and it still wouldn't ease the sanctions, nor reverse NATO's intent to wean themselves from Russian oil. Putin staked his future on this invasion.

I know there are those who consider me a delusional fool for saying this, but neither Russia or China are in as good a position as they want to appear to the outside world. I still read people on Quora who claim that Russia could crush NATO like a bug if Putin chose and the bungling is just some sort of diabolical plan on his part.

Guest

Re: Ukraine Situation Resolution

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:58 pm
Right now, both the Ukrainians and the Russians have said that they are making progress in peace talks.

Similar to the 1940 Finland situation, Russia needs to find a political “win” so that it can disengage and resupply/reorganize.

From a German source (Julian Roepke – reporter for Bild), it is reported that Russia will take the entire provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk (the Russian “recognized” republics) as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhya provinces (see map). This would link Russia to the previously seized Crimea (Krym on the map).

Image

I find this plausible. Putin would be able to say he “achieved his objectives” and even say Russia “won” the war.

However, the Ukrainian Army (and people) may not want to go along with this, and may keep fighting. If so, the Russians may pull back forward elements, especially those overextended towards Kiev, and just blast away at all Ukrainians until they are overwhelmed. There is no possibility of Russia surrendering to the Ukrainians, or even them “giving up and just going home”.

Please recognize that while the Russians have taken serious losses, so have the Ukrainians. I would surmise that the Ukrainians also have serious supply issues, especially in regard to bullets and artillery shells. Also, I am hearing that some (maybe many) Ukrainian units are melting away in the face of massive Russian artillery barrages.

As I mentioned previously, war is a giant Pandora’s Box. Nobody knows exactly what will happen when the box is opened, and nobody really knows what the final resolution will be.
The occupied areas of Ukraine are extremely rebellious and uncooperative (Khersov). The Russians would have to resort to ethnic cleansing to keep them.

Also, on Sky News and other news sites, a lot of military analysts are talking like the use of "low yield" nuclear weapons are a given. Do you think nuclear attacks on Ukraine are a given O_O

Wouldn't Russia be a nation of outcasts forever, if they used nukes on Ukraine?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I don't see people in Europe or North America or even places like Japan using a petro yuan currency. China is going the way of North Korea. The Chinese are losing factories and the products they make for domestic consumption are substandard, crap really. The US dollar is valuable everywhere you go; the yuan is not.

I see manufacturing returning to the US, even it it may end up being heavily automated.

I don't see the Saudis dumping the US dollar or British pound because the Saudis like London and New York, even LA, not toxic Beijing or Moscow. The oil states love Western luxury and (believe it or not) the western lifestyle. I've seen Saudi princes partying in Paris with my own eyes. They will not replace Paris or London with Changchun or even Shanghai. The rich Arabs shop at Chanel and Asprey, not Walmart. The Saudi Crown prince is an a-h, and everyone knows it. Is he going to use his Yuan to buy houses in Mayfair and Rolls Royce's? Saudi Arabia is ruled by a jaded and corrupt family. They like Western luxuries. MB is playing games, but he will lose.

Another point: China and Russia are unreliable and even dangerous friends. Would you trust your them to deal honestly with you and come to your defense? China and Russia will steal as much as they can. Any deal one makes with Russians and Chinese becomes worse by the day.

A new Cold War has began. I don't think the oil states want to end up behind the Iron Curtain. I don't.

What products are they going to buy with Yuan? Russian pharmaceuticals? Russian cars? Russian fashion brands? Russian products are low quality. Why are the Russians that can afford to leave leaving? They don't want to live like Soviet peasants.

The West has Rule of Law, Russia and China rule from the barrel of a gun. Why do the oligarch's (and Putin) keep most of their money in Western banks?

I think nuclear power is about to make a huge comeback...

Navigator
Posts: 966
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Wider Repercussions of Ukraine War

Post by Navigator »

There are multiple serious implications and repercussions of what is going on in Ukraine.

I’ve already discussed the Russian need to replace incompetent leadership (and planners) with people who know what they are doing. War illuminates who is and who isn’t up to the task very brightly. I would imagine that we will learn of some “up and comers” in the Russian Army very soon.

In no particular order (other than which order they popped up in my head while writing), here are some of the other things that must be considered:

• Ukraine was hung out to dry by Europe/USA. Nobody really came to their defense. Sure, we provided them with anti-tank and anti-air weapons, but NOBODY sent troops or did combat air patrols or anything like that.

The West, at this point, I think smugly thinks that they have completely contained the war, and that it won’t spill over into a wider conflict (except maybe the addition of Belarus, which is expected). So people in Europe can get on with their lives of consumption and worry about what the real threat is in their mind, Global Warming.

This has made Ukrainians quite mad. They don’t say this because they need the weapons and any kind of support they can get while the shooting is going on, but they are seriously upset (and rightly so) that they are carrying the ENTIRE burden of Russian aggression.

In the end, the Ukrainians are going to hate the West almost as much as the Russians because of this.

• Europe has actually further denuded itself of defensive capabilities. I would gather that the majority (if not overwhelming majority) of anti-tank weapons in Europe/NATO have been sent to the Ukraine. I would guess like a decade’s worth of military/industrial production.

When the Ukraine War ends, the Ukrainians are not going to ship the remaining stocks back to NATO. And if Ukraine isn’t involved in a Russian aggression against NATO, like the Baltic States, there may not be enough anti-tank missiles to meet the new threat.

Of course, this is assuming the Russian Army can refit and resupply to engage in such activity.

• The Biden Administration has proven itself “War Averse”. While this sounds like a good thing (wars are bad), it isn’t if it means abandoning liberty and those that enjoy it (wars to defend liberty are needed if liberty is to be maintained).

What this means is that China has a pretty good idea that if it invades Taiwan, who does not have a defense treaty with the USA, the USA will not get involved.

We have telegraphed this to China for decades, as we have “unrecognized” Taiwan as a nation, were OK with giving the CCP the China seat in the UN (with its veto on action), and are too worried about our current economic ties with China to abandon them.

In the case of China, I can’t even see the Biden administration putting meaningful economic sanctions on the Chinese in case of an invasion of Taiwan. We would probably act like the Germans do now regarding Ukraine. Say we are against them, and then attempt to continue “business as usual”.

It would probably eventually get so messy in Asia that the US would eventually get sucked in anyway, but not until after the best military opportunities are lost.

• The sanction on Russia will have economic consequences for the world.

The world economy is currently hanging on by a thread. The sanctions make it very likely that the Russians will default on their debts. This could cause the collapse of some banks (which could start a chain reaction).

Russia will also probably nationalize the assets of foreign companies. They will eventually stop sending natural gas to Europe.

The Russian Oil is probably not coming back to the market for the US or Europe, and the increased gas prices will start to have more and more second and third order economic effects.

Russian and Belarus fertilizers will not be available for the foreseeable future, and will cause a huge increase in food production costs. Ukraine will not be exporting wheat for a while, and this will cause both food shortages (probably famines) and also add to increases in food costs.

All of this could lead to the final bursting of the current economic bubble. As in major stock markets tanking, financial institutions failing, and even defaults on national debts.

• The economic downturn would probably have military repercussions.

The Chinese will blame the USA. This will greatly increase the chance of war.

The Russians will blame the USA/Europe, and economic hardship could trigger the “Mortal Threat to Mother Russia” bit, and cause them to want real revenge on NATO.

The US will focus on domestic issues rather than the gathering war clouds in the leadup to war. Chief among these are the concerns about Global Warming. Right now we need to be gearing up domestic production of every important resource and product that we might need in time of war. Instead, we continue to follow these asinine green policies that probably originated in (and are certainly heavily financially supported by) China in the first place.

Navigator
Posts: 966
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Widening Ukraine War

Post by Navigator »

I have read some credible reports that the Russian Navy is concentrated to conduct an amphib landing to the southwest of Odessa. This would certainly widen the war, and create yet another front for both Russia and Ukraine.

Also, the odds of Belarus entering the fray are still pretty high.

Guest from abroad

Re: Wider Repercussions of Ukraine War

Post by Guest from abroad »

Navigator wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:59 pm
The Russians will blame the USA/Europe, and economic hardship could trigger the “Mortal Threat to Mother Russia” bit, and cause them to want real revenge on NATO.
Question: How many Russians are in the Russian army? A lot of the "Russian soldiers" I see on TV or Mongolians and ethnic minorities from Dagestan and Siberia. I wonder if they will be willing to doe for "Mother Russia"? Honestly.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Guest wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:58 pm
I don't see people in Europe or North America or even places like Japan using a petro yuan currency. China is going the way of North Korea. The Chinese are losing factories and the products they make for domestic consumption are substandard, crap really. The US dollar is valuable everywhere you go; the yuan is not.
The problem is that China manipulates its currency for political purposes. Accepting market rick is one thing but political risk is something else. You're correct, dollars are accepted anywhere.
I see manufacturing returning to the US, even it it may end up being heavily automated.
It may be more that high value manufacturing (which didn't move overseas as much) returns. Low value plastic stuff is more sensitive to labor costs, though China isn't a cheap manufacturing country anymore. Labor shortages are getting real.
I don't see the Saudis dumping the US dollar or British pound because the Saudis like London and New York, even LA, not toxic Beijing or Moscow. The oil states love Western luxury and (believe it or not) the western lifestyle. I've seen Saudi princes partying in Paris with my own eyes. They will not replace Paris or London with Changchun or even Shanghai. The rich Arabs shop at Chanel and Asprey, not Walmart. The Saudi Crown prince is an a-h, and everyone knows it. Is he going to use his Yuan to buy houses in Mayfair and Rolls Royce's? Saudi Arabia is ruled by a jaded and corrupt family. They like Western luxuries. MB is playing games, but he will lose.
I don't think the Arab countries are playing games, they're sending messages. Biden has been playing footsie with Iran again and the Arab states are showing their displeasure. Unfortunately Biden and the morons around him have political reasons for the things they do and tend to ignore the real world consequences.
Another point: China and Russia are unreliable and even dangerous friends. Would you trust your them to deal honestly with you and come to your defense? China and Russia will steal as much as they can. Any deal one makes with Russians and Chinese becomes worse by the day.
I keep trying to point this out to Indians who seem to think they have some kind of obligation to support Russia. Yes, India was stupid enough to buy goat loads of Russian weapons, but there has to come a time to realize that you're at the bottom of a hole and to stop digging. As we've seen, Russian weapons aren't even that good.
A new Cold War has began. I don't think the oil states want to end up behind the Iron Curtain. I don't.

What products are they going to buy with Yuan? Russian pharmaceuticals? Russian cars? Russian fashion brands? Russian products are low quality. Why are the Russians that can afford to leave leaving? They don't want to live like Soviet peasants.

The West has Rule of Law, Russia and China rule from the barrel of a gun. Why do the oligarch's (and Putin) keep most of their money in Western banks?

I think nuclear power is about to make a huge comeback...
More succinctly, if you want to buy stuff or sell stuff, you'll have to choose one side or the other. The Western nations may not allow others to sit on the fence anymore.

Xeraphim1

Re: Wider Repercussions of Ukraine War

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:59 pm
There are multiple serious implications and repercussions of what is going on in Ukraine.

I’ve already discussed the Russian need to replace incompetent leadership (and planners) with people who know what they are doing. War illuminates who is and who isn’t up to the task very brightly. I would imagine that we will learn of some “up and comers” in the Russian Army very soon.

In no particular order (other than which order they popped up in my head while writing), here are some of the other things that must be considered:

• Ukraine was hung out to dry by Europe/USA. Nobody really came to their defense. Sure, we provided them with anti-tank and anti-air weapons, but NOBODY sent troops or did combat air patrols or anything like that.

The West, at this point, I think smugly thinks that they have completely contained the war, and that it won’t spill over into a wider conflict (except maybe the addition of Belarus, which is expected). So people in Europe can get on with their lives of consumption and worry about what the real threat is in their mind, Global Warming.

This has made Ukrainians quite mad. They don’t say this because they need the weapons and any kind of support they can get while the shooting is going on, but they are seriously upset (and rightly so) that they are carrying the ENTIRE burden of Russian aggression.

In the end, the Ukrainians are going to hate the West almost as much as the Russians because of this.
I'm sure Ukrainians aren't happy, but I think they also understand. Getting NATO involved runs the risk of nuclear missiles flying. They might bear a grudge, but they'd do the same.
• Europe has actually further denuded itself of defensive capabilities. I would gather that the majority (if not overwhelming majority) of anti-tank weapons in Europe/NATO have been sent to the Ukraine. I would guess like a decade’s worth of military/industrial production.

When the Ukraine War ends, the Ukrainians are not going to ship the remaining stocks back to NATO. And if Ukraine isn’t involved in a Russian aggression against NATO, like the Baltic States, there may not be enough anti-tank missiles to meet the new threat.

Of course, this is assuming the Russian Army can refit and resupply to engage in such activity.
Raytheon is going to make a lot of money. Stingers and Javelins aren't that complex to make so manufacturing isn't a big problem. The question is how quickly will orders be placed. Putin has been a gold mine for defense manufacturers and this latest invasion has been even the most reluctant countries wake up and start spending. Even Germany will be making its 2% pledge.
• The Biden Administration has proven itself “War Averse”. While this sounds like a good thing (wars are bad), it isn’t if it means abandoning liberty and those that enjoy it (wars to defend liberty are needed if liberty is to be maintained).

What this means is that China has a pretty good idea that if it invades Taiwan, who does not have a defense treaty with the USA, the USA will not get involved.

We have telegraphed this to China for decades, as we have “unrecognized” Taiwan as a nation, were OK with giving the CCP the China seat in the UN (with its veto on action), and are too worried about our current economic ties with China to abandon them.

In the case of China, I can’t even see the Biden administration putting meaningful economic sanctions on the Chinese in case of an invasion of Taiwan. We would probably act like the Germans do now regarding Ukraine. Say we are against them, and then attempt to continue “business as usual”.

It would probably eventually get so messy in Asia that the US would eventually get sucked in anyway, but not until after the best military opportunities are lost.
Taiwan has a kind of treaty and it is almost vital for Western economies. Japan has already at least implied that it would fight to defend Taiwan and I suspect South Korea feels the same. Taiwan and Ukraine are in different categories plus it would be much more difficult to invade Taiwan.

• The sanction on Russia will have economic consequences for the world.

The world economy is currently hanging on by a thread. The sanctions make it very likely that the Russians will default on their debts. This could cause the collapse of some banks (which could start a chain reaction).

Russia will also probably nationalize the assets of foreign companies. They will eventually stop sending natural gas to Europe.

The Russian Oil is probably not coming back to the market for the US or Europe, and the increased gas prices will start to have more and more second and third order economic effects.

Russian and Belarus fertilizers will not be available for the foreseeable future, and will cause a huge increase in food production costs. Ukraine will not be exporting wheat for a while, and this will cause both food shortages (probably famines) and also add to increases in food costs.

All of this could lead to the final bursting of the current economic bubble. As in major stock markets tanking, financial institutions failing, and even defaults on national debts.
European banks are the most exposed (natch) so they likely will get some nice handouts from the EU. Russia can nationalize assets, but that doesn't mean they will get any use out them. For instance, a bill was passed allowing the expropriation of leased airliners but the lack of parts and maintenance will ground them within a year or so. And doing so will have long term effects like never being able to lease planes again. There may be a limit to the Pyrrhic actions that are taken.

Oil is fungible and someone is going to buy it. If China gets a discount it will buy that and then not buy from Gulf states. Or someone else will.

Fertilizer may be a problem for a year or so, but Russian/Belarusian percentage has been more an issue of them having the capacity so why build more? Wheat will be an issue for this year but a shortage will lead the changes in planting. The US has plenty of capacity to go more; getting rid of the ethanol mandate would free up oodles of land.

I don't think we're going to see a bubble burst. Stock markets are the only place you can make any investing money. It's more likely that it will be more difficult to fight inflation since central banks won't want to jack up interest rates right now.

• The economic downturn would probably have military repercussions.

The Chinese will blame the USA. This will greatly increase the chance of war.

The Russians will blame the USA/Europe, and economic hardship could trigger the “Mortal Threat to Mother Russia” bit, and cause them to want real revenge on NATO.

The US will focus on domestic issues rather than the gathering war clouds in the leadup to war. Chief among these are the concerns about Global Warming. Right now we need to be gearing up domestic production of every important resource and product that we might need in time of war. Instead, we continue to follow these asinine green policies that probably originated in (and are certainly heavily financially supported by) China in the first place.
China will blame the US because it's convenient. The chance of war will increase only if the situation seems to benefit China more that the US.

Russia blames the US for being powerful while Russia is not. Taking revenge on NATO? The West has been pretty united so Russia really doesn't have a wedge issue. NATO is also much stronger that Russia militarily. It's hard to conceal that after the poor performance we've seen in Ukraine.

I suspect we're going to see big changes in Congress this fall. Most likely Republicans will take the House and possibly the Senate. That will put great limits on what the Biden administration can do. I suspect the US will start to follow Europe in realizing that energy stability is more important than green virtue signalling.

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