Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Apr-2021 World View: Russia says it's withdrawing troops from Ukraine border

Image
  • Russia is continuing to block the Kerch Strait, blocking
    Ukraine's access to the Sea of Azov until October 31.


Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Thursday that the
100,000+ troops on the Ukraine border will begin returning to their
home bases from the Russian-Ukrainian border and Crimea on Friday.

It's possible that the announcement is a lie, and that there won't be
a withdrawal, since this is the kind of thing that Russia lies about
all the time. But assuming it's true, it means that the whole thing
was just a fun show, possibly for Vladimir Putin's domestic audience.

However, one thing hasn't changed: Russia is continuing to close the
Kerch Strait to naval traffic, until October 31, blocking Ukraine's
naval traffic to Mariupol and other east Ukraining ports.

** 19-Apr-21 World View -- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210419



-- Russia to Withdraw Troops From Ukraine Border, Crimea
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/ ... mea-a73705
(Moscow Times, 22-Apr-2021)

DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Biden's envoy to Yemen says he doesn't know if the US is still supporting the Saudi-led coalition

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yeme ... s-not-know

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

New Zealand is leaving the five "I" s and partnering with China.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Apr-2021 World View: Five Eyes
Guest wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:29 pm
> New Zealand is leaving the five "I" s and partnering with China.

*** Australia was blindsided when Five Eyes ally New Zealand backed
away from China criticism

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 57l5d.html

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:38 pm
** 22-Apr-2021 World View: Five Eyes
Guest wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:29 pm
> New Zealand is leaving the five "I" s and partnering with China.

*** Australia was blindsided when Five Eyes ally New Zealand backed
away from China criticism

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 57l5d.html
China...Winning...

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:30 pm

The French being "surrender monkeys" is a myth. The real "surrender monkeys" are non-professionals in the Italian Army.
Hahahahaha! Excellent, Navigator.

I just wish the Italians would owe up to their war crimes.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:09 pm
Navigator wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:30 pm

The French being "surrender monkeys" is a myth. The real "surrender monkeys" are non-professionals in the Italian Army.
Hahahahaha! Excellent, Navigator.

I just wish the Italians would owe up to their war crimes.
The Italians also swtiched sides in both world wars. What douche bags. With all the pro Putin scumbags operating in the Italian government now, I expect them to do the same in WW3.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Italian Draftee Army

Post by Navigator »

I had thought that most people had missed this. Glad some of you saw some value in the comment.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Now that everyone knows there are massive numbers of Russian ground forces along the Ukraine border, what would the Russian deception plan be?

It would have to be "exercise is now complete and we are just driving around to get the vehicles back on the train cars".

About a week ago I saw a couple of articles about Russians painting white invasion stripes on their tanks. Commanders don't mess with the paint jobs on their pretty vehicles. You want them to look "spiffy" in the motor pool. Having crews use white paint and rough paint brushes on their nice looking vehicles is only something you do as an expedient in a war zone. But I haven't yet seen any clear pictures of rough crew paintbrushing of vehicles (a la Russian tanks in Prague in 1968). Only nicely done stripes. A modern Russian tank with a crew administered rough white stripe would be a scary specter.

My guess is that the Russians have to say something and so this ("exercise is now complete") is what they are now saying. They are probably deploying even more to the assembly areas by using the current story about why even more trains and truck convoys are headed to these areas.

What benefit have they gained by this massive expenditure and movement? I would say little to none.

They could intend to do it multiple times prior to an actual attack to force the Ukrainians to eventually drop their guard, but doing so is prohibitively expensive, and Russia is not exactly flush with cash.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:13 am
They could intend to do it multiple times prior to an actual attack to force the Ukrainians to eventually drop their guard, but doing so is prohibitively expensive, and Russia is not exactly flush with cash.
Exactly! Mobilization is extrememly expensive and Russia is bankrupt. I still think they plan to invade. What could be happening?

1) China has delayed the inavsion of Taiwan, so Russia has to postpone--but not cancel--the invason of Ukraine.

2) Russia decided that NATO would fight and that th economic sanctions that would follow would completely destroy Russia's economy. (Goods sold to China are sold at subvalue or at the best break even prices). Russia has chickened out.

3) This is all just a ruse and the Russian invasion plans are going as planned.

4)China and Russia are clashing over issues behind doors and Russia has decided to put the attack on hold while it decides what to do.

Arm the Chechen rebels. A few shoulder fired missles would create chaos behind the Russian lines. There are extensive networks of rebels throughout the region and weapons could flow easily. Very easily.

Ask yourself this: WHAT WOULD RONALD REAGAN DO?

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