Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:43 pm

** 16-Sep-2019 World View: Military's knowledge of the world

utahbob wrote:> John, just anecdotal, but there is one segment of young people who
> do know geography: the less than 1% who are in the military. Many
> serve all over the planet. My troops when at the tactical level
> could list all the major geographical, cultural and political
> features of all the countries from Morocco to China. Planners of
> all ranks can recite explain cultural and historical profiles of
> all countries in their Area of Responsibility. We used to pass
> various publications to read while killing time on drop or pick
> zones, such as The Economist, WSJ, Foreign Policy with Maxim and
> FMH (the UK version). I remember one of my corporals who worked
> with me at a combat command with a southern drawl comment about a
> State Department political appointee about her lack of knowledge
> of history and world affairs even though she went to an ivy league
> school.


I'm going to partially disagree with you. You're certainly right that
people in the military know a great deal about culture and current
events in many countries, and history to some extent, but based on
what I've seen from military analysts and former generals on tv, that
knowledge is very shallow. It's certainly true, as you say, that
military people know a lot more about the world than the snowflakes in
the State Dept., but there are levels of knowledge. People in the
military are a step up from the "experts" in Washington, but it's
a very specific kind of knowledge attuned more to the culture
of Washington.

What you've written implies this. You say that they spend their time
reading magazines like The Economist and WSJ, but the reporters in
these magazines are far more ignorant about the world than the
soldiers themselves. If that's where they get their information, then
it's truly the blind leading the blind.

In 2011, when I gave the talk on Generational Dynamics that you
sponsored at Fort Devens, I was really surprised by questions,
especially by the apparent unawareness of the threat from China.

A more recent and continuing example is the war in Afghanistan.
Everything happening in Afghanistan today is overwhelmingly a result
of the civil war from 1991 to 1996. And yet, this civil war is never
mentioned in the media, or by military analysts. Everybody knows how
much American foreign policy has been influenced by WW II, and the
Vietnam and Iraq wars, but it never seems to occur to anyone to think
about the question of how the 1991-96 civil war is controlling Afghan
policies today. I've heard military analysts say something about the
Russian invasion in the 1980s, which is mostly irrelevant to what's
going on today, but then never mention the civil war of the 1990s, or
just mention that there was "some fighting."

A person may be an expert about something locally, but that doesn't
mean that he knows what's going on globally. For example, a farmer
wouldn't have any reason to know about global agricultural policy.

So maybe the military does know what's going on in the world, but
quite honestly I haven't seen any evidence of it.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:29 pm

** 16-Sep-2019 BBC's Lyse Doucet -- Iran and Saudi Arabia

I just remembered something that I've previously documented on my web
site.

On December 31, 2015, there was a BBC World Service special show with
an hour of the top BBC reporters and analysts predicting what would
happen in 2016. Most of it was fatuous nonsense, but the thing that
really made me start laughing was when one of the reporters -- I think
it was Lyse Doucet -- predicted that in 2016, Saudi Arabia and Iran
would get together to start peace talks, and would settle many of
their differences by the end of the year.

Two days later, protesters in Iran stormed the Saudi embassy in
Tehran, and burned it down. They were protesting the execution of a
Saudi citizen, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, a well-known Shia cleric
who spent more than a decade studying theology in Iran, and became an
anti-government protester in Saudi Arabia.

This is what I mean when I say that someone may understand a local
situation, but have no idea what's going on globally.

"Lyse joined the BBC in the early 1980s in West Africa, and was based
in Abidjan in the Ivory Coast for five years. She reported from
Pakistan in 1988, and was based in Kabul from late 1988 to the end of
1989 to cover the Soviet troop withdrawal and its aftermath. She was
the BBC Correspondent in Islamabad from 1989 to 1993, also reporting
from Afghanistan and Iran. In 1994 she opened the BBC office in Amman,
Jordan. From 1995 to 1999 she was based in Jerusalem, traveling across
the Middle East. In 1999, she joined the BBC's team of presenters but
continues to report from the field."
(https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1570488/bio).

And yet, with over 30 years on the ground in the Mideast region, she
still thought that Iran and Saudi Arabia would get together to start
peace talks, and would settle many of their differences by the end of
the year.

If someone like Doucet, who is 60 years old and has 30 years of field
experience, can make an obvious mistake like that, imagine how
incredibly stupid the young reporters at the NY Times and other
mainstream media must be. They truly don't have a clue.

Trevor
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Trevor » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:18 pm

From what I've seen, the military consider China a threat, but a distant threat. The idea is that they'll be a rival to us in 20-30 years, not that we're facing an imminent war with them. Even then, it tends to be seen as a repeat of the Cold War, because that's what we remember. WWII might as well be ancient history.

A second problem is overconfidence. I've heard countless claims saying that we're so far beyond China that they'd never dare to attack us, often mentioning the military budget and quantity of equipment. If they ever dared to attack us, we'd crush them like a bug. I seem to remember people saying that prior to Pearl Harbor.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Xeraphim1 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:05 pm

Interesting item I haven't seen in the major news sites:

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... apons.html

Why does Erdogan want nuclear weapons?

“It’s all fine and well, yet some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one or two. But I don’t have missiles with nuclear heads. This I cannot accept.”

Signaling that he does not object to nuclear arms races, Erdogan commented, “Look at them. Look at what they are competing over. But when it comes to us, they say, ‘Don’t do it!’” In arguing why Turkey’s acquisition of nuclear arms would be legitimate, he pointed to Israel, which is believed to be a nuclear state but maintains a policy of “nuclear ambiguity,” neither confirming nor denying whether it has nuclear weapons. “There is Israel just beside us. Do they have [nuclear weapons]? They do," he said, describing Israel’s possession of nuclear arms as a tool for “bullying” the region.

As he wrapped up the topic, Erdogan made a crucial remark. “We are currently working on it,” he assured the audience, suggesting that Turkey is engaged in activities to acquire a nuclear capability. If that is indeed the case, open sources are, of course, unavailable on what those activities entail and how much they have progressed.


A Turkish bomb on the way?

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:09 pm

** 17-Sep-2019 World View: Waiting for Trump's response to Iran's attack on Saudi oil infrastructure

Image
    According to Debka, the attacks on the Saudi oil
    infrastructure used 17 missiles and drones, launched from southern
    Iran and western Iraq, with 12 direct hits

Sunday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure caused oil prices
to spike 12%, the largest one-day increase in history. However,
prices have retreated slightly, especially after Saudi's announcement
that most of the oil production would be restored within a few days.
If true, the Saudis are being lauded for the resilience they've built
in to the oil infrastructure.

It's pretty much universally believed that Iran was the perpetrator,
and that the attack was launched by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC). Iran denies responsibity for the attack, but it's generally
believed that Iran is responsible, and this is the sixth attack on
Saudi oil facilities in the last four months.

Iran's denials are being disregarded. The claim by the Iran-sponsored
Yemeni Houthis that they launched the attack from Yemen is being
disregarded, and is viewed as an attempt to shield Iran from blame.

According to Debka, and confirmed by other reports, the coordinated
attack was extremely sophisticated. US and Saudi intelligence
officials referenced by Debka have concluded that 12 low-flying cruise
missiles were launched from Khuzestan in southern Iran, and 5 drones
were launched from Anbar province in western Iraq.

Even if the Saudis recovered quickly from Sunday's attack, there are
concerns that Iran will simply make more attacks. It's believed that
Iran's strategy is to cause oil shortages and push the price of oil
above $100 a barrel, so that America will be forced to reduce the
sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil. It's believed that Iran
will avoid American targets, since doing so would cause an immediate
military response.

Therefore, it's believed that Donald Trump has asked the military to
provide a list of options of possible responses. These options would
include diplomacy (the United Nations Security Council), cyber attacks
(to cripple Iran's intelligence cabilities), and special forces or
missiles to proportionally attack Iran's oil production facilities.

Analysts I've heard seem unanimous in saying that there must be some
response, or else Iran will simply launch more and more attacks, until
there is a response.

Many analysts are seeing a broader picture: This is a "new world" or
"new normal," where anyone can attack anyone with drones or cruise
missiles. This could result in a worldwide oil disruption. The
United States has become energy self-sufficient in the last two years,
but a worldwide oil disruption would particularly impact Asian
economies, which are highly dependent on Mideast oil.

---- Sources:

-- Exclusive: Iran shot missiles from Khuzestan, drones from W. Iraq
at Saudi oil facilities
https://www.debka.com/exclusive-iran-sh ... acilities/
(Debka, 16-Sep-2019)

-- Detailed satellite photos show extent of 'surgical' attack damage
to Saudi Aramco oil facilities
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/satelli ... lants.html
(CNBC, 17-Sep-2019)

-- U.S. official says drone and missile attack on Saudi Arabia was
launched from Iran
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-saudi ... territory/
(CBS News, 17-Sep-2019)

CH86
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby CH86 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:21 pm

Xeraphim1 wrote:Interesting item I haven't seen in the major news sites:

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... apons.html

Why does Erdogan want nuclear weapons?

“It’s all fine and well, yet some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one or two. But I don’t have missiles with nuclear heads. This I cannot accept.”

Signaling that he does not object to nuclear arms races, Erdogan commented, “Look at them. Look at what they are competing over. But when it comes to us, they say, ‘Don’t do it!’” In arguing why Turkey’s acquisition of nuclear arms would be legitimate, he pointed to Israel, which is believed to be a nuclear state but maintains a policy of “nuclear ambiguity,” neither confirming nor denying whether it has nuclear weapons. “There is Israel just beside us. Do they have [nuclear weapons]? They do," he said, describing Israel’s possession of nuclear arms as a tool for “bullying” the region.

As he wrapped up the topic, Erdogan made a crucial remark. “We are currently working on it,” he assured the audience, suggesting that Turkey is engaged in activities to acquire a nuclear capability. If that is indeed the case, open sources are, of course, unavailable on what those activities entail and how much they have progressed.


A Turkish bomb on the way?


Obvious spin by Erdogan to drum up support among his own followers. However if Erdogan's figures are even REMOTELY true, it means that the US government has been systematically lying to the citizenry for the past two or three decades or so. Because according to the government the US has 1700 and Russia 1800 deployed warheads respectively with both arsenals having about 7000 stockpiled. Erdogan Claims that Russia has 12000 and the US has 15000 nukes deployed with an Unnamed country (probably North Korea) having 7500.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Tom Mazanec » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:31 pm

North Korea could not have 7500 nukes.
But China could.
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

JCP

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby JCP » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:41 pm

Xeraphim1 wrote:Interesting item I haven't seen in the major news sites:

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... apons.html

Why does Erdogan want nuclear weapons?

“It’s all fine and well, yet some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one or two. But I don’t have missiles with nuclear heads. This I cannot accept.”

Signaling that he does not object to nuclear arms races, Erdogan commented, “Look at them. Look at what they are competing over. But when it comes to us, they say, ‘Don’t do it!’” In arguing why Turkey’s acquisition of nuclear arms would be legitimate, he pointed to Israel, which is believed to be a nuclear state but maintains a policy of “nuclear ambiguity,” neither confirming nor denying whether it has nuclear weapons. “There is Israel just beside us. Do they have [nuclear weapons]? They do," he said, describing Israel’s possession of nuclear arms as a tool for “bullying” the region.

As he wrapped up the topic, Erdogan made a crucial remark. “We are currently working on it,” he assured the audience, suggesting that Turkey is engaged in activities to acquire a nuclear capability. If that is indeed the case, open sources are, of course, unavailable on what those activities entail and how much they have progressed.


A Turkish bomb on the way?

As a counter to Israeli nuclear weapons. As French President Chirac commented in 2004; even one Iranian nuclear bomb would neutralize the Israeli threat. Just one.

And there you go.

John
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18-Sep-19 World View -- Asian countries concerned about oil price spike after attack on Saudi facilities

Postby John » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:57 pm

18-Sep-19 World View -- Asian countries concerned about oil price
spike after attack on Saudi facilities


Identifying Iran as the perpetrator

** 18-Sep-19 World View -- Asian countries concerned about oil price spike after attack on Saudi facilities
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190918.htm#e190918




Contents:
Asian countries concerned about oil price spike after attack on Saudi facilities
Identifying Iran as the perpetrator
Trump's response


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Houthis,
China, India, Japan, South Korea,
Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Khuzestan, Iraq, Anbar

CH86
Posts: 389
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby CH86 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:53 am

Tom Mazanec wrote:North Korea could not have 7500 nukes.
But China could.


Remember however that the article said that the former president of the unnamed country said that the "powers that be" were trying to restrict their arsenal using a sanction regime. Since China never signed START or any of that treaty's affiliates it is under no restriction on that regard whatsoever. I did think about china the mention of restrictions is why I said maybe North Korea, or it could be one of the other declared nuclear powers are near-nuclear powers. If what Erdogan was saying is even remotely true however,, two things are being kept secret: first The US and Russian arsenals are much larger than what is being declared and secondly; someone has 7500+ nukes that no one knows about.


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