23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
shoshin
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Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by shoshin »

Oh, John, whenever we revisit this topic, you come down on the side of untenable arguments. Let's review:

(1) Your graph showing reduction of carbon emissions is for the US. What does this graph look like for the combined other nations on the planet? Are they all reducing as well? Doubtful. And you didn't include a graph of global temperature. Is it dropping in concert with this altruistic move by the US. Once again, doubtful. An increase in global temperature is "baked in the cake" for several decades, regardless of declining emissions, and I believe you know this.

(2) You love that "horse shit/ New York City" analogy, but it doesn't apply. The "New York" problem was a LOCAL catastrophe. Climate collapse is a SYSTEMIC catastrophe. Meddling with the climate carries huge "tail risk" and needs to be viewed through that lens.

(3) The planetary climate system is a complex system, with multiple feedback loops, and it has evolved over 4 billion years to compensate for various perturbations and insults (solar variability, volcanic eruptions, forest fires, etc). The impact of plant & animal life has been minimal, UNTIL this one aberrant species became hugely successful and began digging carbon out of the ground and burning it.That is is a massive perturbation. John, you have experience with huge software programs that have multiple feedback loops, patched together over years of use and modification. And you have described how they can collapse unexpectedly.We can continue to perturb the complex system that is our climate, and it will try to compensate and control the results. But at some point, with enough perturbation, it will "reset" and it is impossible to predict what those conditions will be. But you can say that they will be quite different from what we have now. Is that a risk worth taking?

John
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Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by John »

John wrote: > It's funny. I get more objections when I write about climate
> change than when I write about world war.
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > When you say, "It (climate change and/or pollution) will solve
> itself", you "violate" the intimate core belief of those who you
> annoy. That belief is that man is essentially evil, and that that
> evil makes him messy, and he should be "punished" by being made to
> "prematurely" clean up his messes, and then he should be
> exterminated for his messiness after cleaning them. Leaving the
> "clean" ME to inhabit the earth, and the dead and "dirty" YOU in
> the earth.

> To many, if not most, people in your forum, man is a cancer that
> should be only barely tolerated, and only tolerated at all if they
> are "family".

> This "thinking" applies equally to the right and to the left.

> The "left" wants universal eugenics. The "right" wants the
> "non-mingling of the nations".

> ..and THAT is the fuel of Generational Dynamics. After the
> witnesses of true evil (genocide) are gone, the battle to
> "rightfully" cleanse humanity re-starts in earnest,.. this time to
> SUCCEED!

> There is never a true "success", and the wheel spins on...

> ..but itʻs kinda nice to know that ALL negentropic processes
> follow this same cycle wherever they are in the universe! The
> universal "goal" (as it were) of all the (negentropic) "things" in
> the universe is to develop better and better memory, so as to fend
> off that urge to "cleanse" for as long as possible.

> The urge is only suppressible for the length of one living
> memory. Living Memory needs to be either transferable to future
> generations, or Living needs to be made indefinitely lengthened.

> I'm betting on making Living Memory transferable, and
> "universally" transferred.
For what it's worth, a lot of the people who are annoyed by me get
even with me by annoying me even more.

Actually, what the left claims to want is Socialism, where the
government makes all the decisions because the "people" cannot be
trusted to make decisions. And Venezuela is the result.

John
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Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by John »

shoshin wrote: > Oh, John, whenever we revisit this topic, you come down on the
> side of untenable arguments. Let's review:
No, that's not true. Whenever we revisit this topic, my arguments are
always tenable and true.

shoshin wrote: > (1) Your graph showing reduction of carbon emissions is for the
> US. What does this graph look like for the combined other nations
> on the planet? Are they all reducing as well? Doubtful. And you
> didn't include a graph of global temperature. Is it dropping in
> concert with this altruistic move by the US. Once again,
> doubtful. An increase in global temperature is "baked in the cake"
> for several decades, regardless of declining emissions, and I
> believe you know this.
These statements are untenable on several levels.

First, when I posted that graph, which I clearly described as
depicting energy carbon emissions for the US only, I had two
objectives: 1 - to show there's no need for the US to be part of any
international climate change agreement, since we're already solving
the problem; and 2 - to illustrate how the problem will be solved by
technology. I listed several technology developments that could well
apply to other countries in the next decade or two.

So I completely disagree with your "baked in the cake" argument.
That's like saying that several feet depth of horse manure was baked
in the cake for NYC in 1898. Neither you nor any climate scientist
has even the vaguest clue what's baked in the cake.
shoshin wrote: > (2) You love that "horse shit/ New York City" analogy, but it
> doesn't apply. The "New York" problem was a LOCAL
> catastrophe. Climate collapse is a SYSTEMIC catastrophe. Meddling
> with the climate carries huge "tail risk" and needs to be viewed
> through that lens.
Once again, completely wrong on all counts. The horse manure problem
was a worldwide phenomenon. Cities around the world sent
representatives to the 1898 conference in NYC, just as climate change
conferences in luxurious vacation spots draw climate scientists from
every country. In 1898 the problem was most acute in the largest
cities, like NYC, London and Paris. But if it hadn't been for
technological advances (the automobile), even the smallest city
anywhere in the world would be dealing with a horse manure crisis
within a couple of decades.
shoshin wrote: > (3) The planetary climate system is a complex system, with
> multiple feedback loops, and it has evolved over 4 billion years
> to compensate for various perturbations and insults (solar
> variability, volcanic eruptions, forest fires, etc). The impact of
> plant & animal life has been minimal, UNTIL this one aberrant
> species became hugely successful and began digging carbon out of
> the ground and burning it.That is is a massive perturbation. John,
> you have experience with huge software programs that have multiple
> feedback loops, patched together over years of use and
> modification. And you have described how they can collapse
> unexpectedly.We can continue to perturb the complex system that is
> our climate, and it will try to compensate and control the
> results. But at some point, with enough perturbation, it will
> "reset" and it is impossible to predict what those conditions will
> be. But you can say that they will be quite different from what we
> have now. Is that a risk worth taking?
"Is that a risk worth taking?" What are you talking about? Your
whole argument refutes your own question. The earth is a vast,
complex system, and climate scientists don't have the vaguest clue
what will work and what won't work. I have never heard a single
proposal that would actually make any difference. Are you so far on
the loony left that you actually believe that something like Solyndra,
even if it weren't a financial disaster, would make the least bit of
difference to the vast, complex system that you're describing?

Nobody is "taking" a risk. The risk is there no matter what anyone
does. To suggest that spending money on loony left projects will make
a difference is laughable.

Really, the whole subject is laughable. The world is facing a world
war in the next ten years, and the Singularity in the 2030 time frame.
And we're supposed to spend a ton of money on people who are claiming
that the earth's temperature will go up by 2 degrees by 2100. What a
joke.

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
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Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by Tom Mazanec »

The world is facing a world
war in the next ten years

How can you be so sure it cannot be delayed by more than a decade?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:For what it's worth, a lot of the people who are annoyed by me get
even with me by annoying me even more.
<chuckle!> Howʻs your Ping-Pong? :)
John wrote:Actually, what the left claims to want is Socialism, where the
government makes all the decisions because the "people" cannot be
trusted to make decisions. And Venezuela is the result.
<my opinion, obviously>
"Socialism's" basic aim is Eugenics, because "Socialism" isn't a system of governance, but rather a MEANS to impose slavery such that, eventually, the under-men serve the elite over-men.

By spreading the "misery" evenly-ish in society (by the manpower of the "underclass"), they guarantee an excuse to violently kill off their enemies (the reactionaries), leaving only compliant slaves to do "the dirty work".

..fortunately, socialism, as a tactic, is so inefficient that it can't work fast enough before some "outside" force messes up their plans.

The more efficient tactic, namely what the Chinese are doing (fascistic crony pseudo-capitalism), might work considerably better, but I doubt it'll work well enough (quickly enough) for them to get to the REAL full-on Eugenics stage.

..they may be hoping that the first part of the "Eugenics Push" will be to nuke the non-Chinese, thus freeing themselves from "some" of those obnoxious "outside forces" that so interfere with getting on with the later phases of the Eugenics program.

We'll see, eh?

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Tom Mazanec wrote:The world is facing a world
war in the next ten years

How can you be so sure it cannot be delayed by more than a decade?
Perhaps the "singularity" (which I don't personally particularly believe in) will be the "solution" to both WWIII and Global Climate Change?

Perhaps the "lead up" to the "singularity" will postpone (somehow) the war JUST ENOUGH to allow the actually singularity to short-circuit the Global Generational Crisis War?

Perhaps this "lead-up" will allow true transmission of the "living memory" horror of a GenCrisisWar to be passed to the "war ready" younger generation(s), such that they act like the Survivors of the last Crisis War and do everything in their power to stifle the next Crisis War?

Perhaps a "breakthrough" computer simulation "game" will transmit this info to the younger generation, and somehow be universally distributed to EVERYONE on the planet?

Perhaps "Climate Change" is Earth's way of fending off the glaciers to make a nice home for it's most interesting and "powerful" species (humanity)?

..if the Cosmos wanted us dead, we'd be dead already. The world trying to make air conditioning less (or more?) necessary sounds like it's being kind, not us being bad!

Humans do tend to be LUDICROUSLY self important, but to think that we're THAT powerful is beyond egomaniacal.

..thus speaketh a puny human.

John
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Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by John »

Tom Mazanec wrote: > The world is facing a world war in the next ten years

> How can you be so sure it cannot be delayed by more than a
> decade?
You're right to question me, since I thought ten years ago that the
war would have started by now. All I can say is that everything going
on which Syria, Yemen, Kashmir, South China Sea, North Korea, and
other places, that something is going to happen some time, and I would
think that it can't wait too many more years.

Guest

Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by Guest »

Wouldn't a nuclear war destroy the Earth's environment and make life impossible? You talk about traumatized survivors rebuilding, but wouldn't the atmosphere be radioactive? Global warming would be the least of humanity's problems.

Trevor
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Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by Trevor »

Guest wrote:Wouldn't a nuclear war destroy the Earth's environment and make life impossible? You talk about traumatized survivors rebuilding, but wouldn't the atmosphere be radioactive? Global warming would be the least of humanity's problems.
Being that I spent many hours researching this very topic for a novel I'm writing, I can safely say that the answer is no. It would not wipe out all life on earth. It wouldn't wipe out humanity, or destroy civilization. Whatever effects of Nuclear Winter, assuming it happens, wouldn't even destroy the U.S.; certain conditions are necessary for a firestorm.

Of course, that doesn't mean it wouldn't have a horrific death toll attached, but modern cities are a lot more resilient than they were in 1945 Japan. A lot of it would depend on how prepared we are at the outset, whether the exchange happens at the outbreak of the war or towards the end of it, and what we do to prepare for it in the meantime.

One final thing I'd point out is that most tactical and strategic nuclear weapons on both sides would be intercepted or destroyed on the ground instead of actually hitting something; Cold War strategists on both sides were well aware of this.

Guest

Re: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day'

Post by Guest »

Trevor wrote:
Guest wrote:Wouldn't a nuclear war destroy the Earth's environment and make life impossible? You talk about traumatized survivors rebuilding, but wouldn't the atmosphere be radioactive? Global warming would be the least of humanity's problems.
Being that I spent many hours researching this very topic for a novel I'm writing, I can safely say that the answer is no. It would not wipe out all life on earth. It wouldn't wipe out humanity, or destroy civilization. Whatever effects of Nuclear Winter, assuming it happens, wouldn't even destroy the U.S.; certain conditions are necessary for a firestorm.

Of course, that doesn't mean it wouldn't have a horrific death toll attached, but modern cities are a lot more resilient than they were in 1945 Japan. A lot of it would depend on how prepared we are at the outset, whether the exchange happens at the outbreak of the war or towards the end of it, and what we do to prepare for it in the meantime.

One final thing I'd point out is that most tactical and strategic nuclear weapons on both sides would be intercepted or destroyed on the ground instead of actually hitting something; Cold War strategists on both sides were well aware of this.
Thank you. I didn't know these things.

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