25-Oct-14 World View -- 2yo baby in Mali dies of Ebola

[John]

25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola


World Health Organization declares a global polio outbreak

** 25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e141025



Contents:
Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola
WHO: 'Millions of doses Ebola vaccine by end of 2015'
World Health Organization declares a global polio outbreak
Steve Bannon interviews John Xenakis about Ebola crisis


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Craig Spencer, Ebola, Mali, Guinea,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
World Health Organization, WHO,
GlaxoSmithKline, GSK, Public Health Agency of Canada,
Pakistan, Syria, Karachi, Taliban, Osama bin Laden,
Steve Bannon, SiriusXM Patriot radio

[Trevor]

One other issue I can think of that will contribute to the spread of Ebola is just plain human nature. When people arrive from the Ebola-infected countries and start showing symptoms, you'll have plenty of people who refuse to believe that this could be happening to them. "I don't have Ebola! I can't have Ebola!" They'll continue their routine until someone else spots it and they're forced to confront reality, by which point they could have already infected several other people.

Being that the vaccine is being rushed, it's quite possible that some people will have a bad reaction. Not to mention the reaction here, being that a good portion of the United States is on the verge of panic. "Why are you giving all this to the damn Africans? Americans should have first priority!"

[NoOneImportant]

An excellent interview, John. You covered the salient issues without discrediting yourself as a political hack/political malcontent. You covered the mega cities, the difficulty with travel, the hazard of spread in war zones, supply of necessary items -- logistics. You covered the jeopardy of undocumented modes of travel - trains, buses, taxis. An excellent interview.

It won't be your last interview... the following issues might be interesting:
1. Military contamination: US military personal -- the builders -- these people are not supermen, or epidemiologists, it must be expected that some will contract the disease and die. I have seen no release of how their care is to be conducted.
2. Peripheral famine: in already impoverished areas, the economic disruption caused by the physical, and social impact of the disease, including but not limited to - limited travel, increased difficulty of shipping, loss of physical labor, and stigma will cause the wide spread disruption of local employment and food availability and distribution in the affected societies. These items will give rise to famine (eg. once a planting, or harvesting season has passed without the necessary labor, it is gone forever. The associated food not planted, or harvested is lost for at least a year -- those who depend upon that food starve.
3. Labor shortages distort price/wage scales that may have been in effect for extended periods of time. Such distortions cause labor difficulties for long periods of time.

[gerald]

An excellent interview, John. You covered the salient issues without discrediting yourself as a political hack/political malcontent. You covered the mega cities, the difficulty with travel, the hazard of spread in war zones, supply of necessary items -- logistics. You covered the jeopardy of undocumented modes of travel - trains, buses, taxis. An excellent interview.

It won't be your last interview... the following issues might be interesting:
1. Military contamination: US military personal -- the builders -- these people are not supermen, or epidemiologists, it must be expected that some will contract the disease and die. I have seen no release of how their care is to be conducted.
2. Peripheral famine: in already impoverished areas, the economic disruption caused by the physical, and social impact of the disease, including but not limited to - limited travel, increased difficulty of shipping, loss of physical labor, and stigma will cause the wide spread disruption of local employment and food availability and distribution in the affected societies. These items will give rise to famine (eg. once a planting, or harvesting season has passed without the necessary labor, it is gone forever. The associated food not planted, or harvested is lost for at least a year -- those who depend upon that food starve.
3. Labor shortages distort price/wage scales that may have been in effect for extended periods of time. Such distortions cause labor difficulties for long periods of time.

Agree to all of the above and very true, and somewhat like the affects of the black death during the middle ages. I would also add, the increase in public distrust of authorities with a possible under current of animosities toward blacks, because of where the disease came from and how it was transmitted to humans ( the eating of bush meat )

[John]

> One other issue I can think of that will contribute to the spread
> of Ebola is just plain human nature. When people arrive from the
> Ebola-infected countries and start showing symptoms, you'll have
> plenty of people who refuse to believe that this could be
> happening to them. "I don't have Ebola! I can't have Ebola!"
> They'll continue their routine until someone else spots it and
> they're forced to confront reality, by which point they could have
> already infected several other people.

> Being that the vaccine is being rushed, it's quite possible that
> some people will have a bad reaction. Not to mention the reaction
> here, being that a good portion of the United States is on the
> verge of panic. "Why are you giving all this to the damn Africans?
> Americans should have first priority!"

> An excellent interview, John. You covered the salient issues
> without discrediting yourself as a political hack/political
> malcontent. You covered the mega cities, the difficulty with
> travel, the hazard of spread in war zones, supply of necessary
> items -- logistics. You covered the jeopardy of undocumented
> modes of travel - trains, buses, taxis. An excellent interview.

> It won't be your last interview... the following issues might be
> interesting:

> 1. Military contamination: US military personal -- the builders --
> these people are not supermen, or epidemiologists, it must be
> expected that some will contract the disease and die. I have seen
> no release of how their care is to be conducted.

> 2. Peripheral famine: in already impoverished areas, the economic
> disruption caused by the physical, and social impact of the
> disease, including but not limited to - limited travel, increased
> difficulty of shipping, loss of physical labor, and stigma will
> cause the wide spread disruption of local employment and food
> availability and distribution in the affected societies. These
> items will give rise to famine (eg. once a planting, or harvesting
> season has passed without the necessary labor, it is gone forever.
> The associated food not planted, or harvested is lost for at least
> a year -- those who depend upon that food starve.

> 3. Labor shortages distort price/wage scales that may have been in
> effect for extended periods of time. Such distortions cause labor
> difficulties for long periods of time.

> Agree to all of the above and very true, and somewhat like the
> affects of the black death during the middle ages. I would also
> add, the increase in public distrust of authorities with a
> possible under current of animosities toward blacks, because of
> where the disease came from and how it was transmitted to humans
> (the eating of bush meat )

Thanks, guys. During the interview I began to be afraid that I was
sounding too cataclysmic, but I guess this situation is so bad that
you really can't be too cataclysmic.

[gerald]

John, I guess it is just me, but you didn't sound cataclysmic at all. After all, I believe in calling a spade a spade. Sugar coating things causes more problems then it solves.

cheers

[NoOneImportant]

John, you did well.

No need to be cataclysmic, John, be upbeat and matter-of-fact, be self-assured for you know what they don't. Simply reference the many occasions in human history, the time before the advent of the pharma industry, the time when huge swaths of humanity simply got swept away by pestilence. Explicitly note that only since the advent of antibiotics, and vaccine development has the history of mankind been altered and changed, and become what we now call "normal".

Then cite the oppressive governmental regulations and bureaucratic intrusion that impede the development of new pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and antibiotic drugs. Ask them if in their hearts they really believe that Obamacare, and the federal government is really going to develop a vaccine for Ebola? Note the villinization of pharma. companies in the media - the question is already being asked: "...why isn't there already an Ebola vaccine when the virus was isolated in 1976, and why will there be a vaccine ready within a year of the first widespread outbreak? As though some pharmaceutical company's boardroom is orchestrating this outbreak. Then in an accusatory manner state that our something for nothing mentality is at least partially at fault; you just can't make back a $700 million R&D expense for developing a pharmaceutical from a small outbreak in the third world. Let them know that no matter how sorry you might be about this outbreak, that the pharmaceutical industry is just not the Salvation Army. Developing these meds, with all the federal bureaucratic restrictions, and tort liabilities requires oceans of cash - cash that has to come from somewhere.

Then ask a rhetorical question or two... 1. What is an Ebola vaccine worth now, if you believe the grossly understated figures, that almost 5000 people are dead, with additionally tens of thousands more infected, and far more directly at risk, with a worst case of perhaps hundreds of thousands or possibly millions subject to the virus? Tell them that you wish you had better news, but the numbers just are what they are. 2. In light of those sobering numbers are the patent rights for such a vaccine now worth a patent period of 15 - 20 years - tell them to incentivize the pharma industry to engage in preemptive R&D with accelerated R&D wright-offs, longer patent protection periods, and tax credits, and incentives, and tell them to go after those who evilize the pharama's efforts in the media? Tell them: "...sure you are free to villinize the pharama. companies... when they're gone who are you going to get to develop, and produce the old drugs that no longer work on the mutant bugs, like MERSA. 3. Ask them: "do we really want to put litigation fear into the hearts of pharmaceutical companies who alone have the intellectual property and talent necessary to develop new vaccines, and antibiotics?" Antibiotics that keep us ahead of the mutant, and resistant "bugs", or would you rather that we slip back into the disease history of the 13th century?

John, you did well. You're in charge John, these people in most cases can't ID fact from fantasy, and have no technical development experience, or background. While computing is certainly different from the pharama bus, the development effort is functionally similar, but different. The people your talking to don't know much at all about product development, or R&D of any sort. But you do, you know from a life times worth of experience. You not only have what they want, you have what they are in desperate need of - informed honesty. Be not afraid.

[zzazz]

Then cite the oppressive governmental regulations and bureaucratic intrusion that impede the development of new pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and antibiotic drugs. Ask them if in their hearts they really believe that Obamacare, and the federal government is really going to develop a vaccine for Ebola?

It is quite wrong to blame Obamacare. For years the conservative position has been that poor people do not deserve healthcare and should be just left to die. That position was proved again in Texas when the first US Ebola case was sent home with a bottle of worthless pills. -----And now that cynical, some would say evil, philosophy has come back to bite everyone. Even the most unrepentant conservative on earth must now see that the policy of just letting sick poor people die in their hovels threatens to bring down civilization itself.

I've seen at least one theory where the Roman collapse was actually caused when smallpox entered the empire for the first time. Same with us---because the d****d conservatives would rather court disaster than pay a fair tax.

After 9/11, I advocated the we use the disaster to end air travel, because it spreads disease so rapidly. But we are too dinosaur to wise up. Even now when the danger is manifest the most our leaders think to do is check a few passengers at the border for temperatures.

[gerald]

In an earlier post I mentioned the possibility of the development of an undercurrent in this country against blacks because of Ebola and how it was transmitted to humans. hmmmm --

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Se ... 19232.html

African Boys Attacked at Bronx School, Called "Ebola:" Advocacy Group

A group that advocates for Africans in the Bronx is calling for action after it says two brothers who had recently immigrated to the borough from Senegal were beaten and severely injured by several people who called them “Ebola.”
The boys, in sixth and eighth grade, were attacked Friday afternoon at I.S. 318 in Tremont, according to the African Advocacy Council.
VIDEONurse in NJ Ebola Quarantine Being Discharged
The boys, who have been in the U.S. for about a month, were taken to the hospital after the attack.
The group says that the attack is just the latest incidence of disrespect and bullying of Africans since the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa.

[Tom Mazanec]

Risk analyzers on ebola peril to world:
http://psandman.com/col/Ebola-3.htm