Is geographic location by far the most important?

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Cool Breeze
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

Yes, we've been over that. What I'm getting at is your fixation on how destined a war is.

I agree probability is high, but a financial crisis is much more likely. A war may or may not happen, but you still won't talk about your response to one not happening which would ruin your hypothesis. A simple answer might be, "I will admit I am wrong." I only offer that because you are being coy or you really believe you cannot possibly be wrong, which is just weird for a smart person who should know better.

John
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

** 30-Dec-2020 World View: WW III is certain
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:20 pm
> Yes, we've been over that. What I'm getting at is your fixation on
> how destined a war is.

> I agree probability is high, but a financial crisis is much more
> likely. A war may or may not happen, but you still won't talk
> about your response to one not happening which would ruin your
> hypothesis. A simple answer might be, "I will admit I am wrong." I
> only offer that because you are being coy or you really believe
> you cannot possibly be wrong, which is just weird for a smart
> person who should know better.
Lol! You do have a sense of humor.

You're right. We've been over this many times. And I'm confused
about why you're asking the same questions again that I've already
answered.

I'll repeat what I wrote on December 16 in the news thread as to why a
world war is 100% certain:

You do not have to "believe" in Generational Dynamics or any religion
to consider these predictions valid.

There were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional
wars on several continents, and there have been massive wars in every
region in every century for millennia. So it's 100% certain that
there will be multiple crisis wars in this century.

If you don't believe that, then you must believe in your own religion
-- that the problem of war has been "solved." Maybe you'd be like the
believers in the historial fantasy in 1929 when the US led the world
in signing the Kellogg-Briand Pact, which outlawed war and made war
illegal. Frank Kellogg earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 1929 for his
work on the Peace Pact. Maybe Xi Jinping is looking forward to
getting his own Nobel Peace Prize.

It's like "La Belle Époque." There were two world wars in the last
century, plus massive wars on every continent, and there have been
massive wars on every continent in every century for millennia, but
everyone believes their own fantasies and nobody believes that war is
even possible until it starts. Then they ruefully wish that they had
taken even some simple steps to prepare.

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-belle-epo ... ge-1221300

So the prediction of multiple world wars and crisis wars does not
require any religious belief. It is based entirely on millennia of
history, and the "religious" belief would be that there would be no
world wars.

So that's my answer. It's the same answer as before. You can agree
or not, but please don't ask the same question again. WW III is 100%
certain, based on historical evidence and Generational Dynamics
analysis and, in my opinion, will occur well before 2030.

By the way, a major global financial crisis is one of the scenarios
leading to a world war.

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Bob Butler
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Bob Butler »

John wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:37 pm
There were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional wars on several continents, and there have been massive wars in every region in every century for millennia. So it's 100% certain that there will be multiple crisis wars in this century.
This assumes one is not aware of the age theory of history. Civilizations change behaviors big time on age boundaries. What you observe in one age does not necessarily hold in another. If the Information Age is defined by nukes, insurgent wars, proxy wars or computers, you particularly have to confirm that any pattern you observed in previous ages related to this things still holds. The fact that major powers have not engaged in crisis wars in the Information Age makes this particular prediction questionable.

tim
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by tim »

John,

You really have patience to argue the same arguments over and over and over...

All these points are covered in both John's book Generational Dynamics and The Fourth Turning.

Cool Breeze read John's book and understand the theory.

https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyn ... 721&sr=8-1

https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-A ... 793&sr=8-1
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5

tim
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by tim »

Geographic location will be the first problem you have to deal with, assuming you are looking to avoid hardship as much as possible.

Look at WWII. Some of the people that suffered the most were the civilians on the front lines of the German and Russian armies. Certainly some of the Japanese civilians suffered the most who lived in the cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

When the allies bombed Germany those living in the German cities fared worst then Germans living in rural areas.

Do not live in a city that will be one of the targets of the Chinese military.

Here is a European map of bombings during WWII: https://dlozeve.github.io/ww2-bombings/

You can zoom in the map and see that there were areas where no bombs were dropped. Now imagine the destruction and radiation nuclear weapons are going to cause if you could overlay a map like this across the U.S.

The allies targeted civilians living in axis cities. WWIII will be the same.
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5

tim
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by tim »

The right kinds of books are windows into the minds of the previous generations.

https://www.amazon.com/After-World-Edwa ... 813&sr=8-5

From The Day After WWIII by Edward Zuckerman (1984):
Kearny said he was working to oppose the "myth" that nuclear war is not survivable, a myth that is propagated, he said, by American intellectuals and policymakers who tend to be in there middle years or beyond and so do not have small children to arouse their "natural animal instinct to protect the young." They also tend to be wealthy, Kearny said, "so they have the farthest to fall, even if they survive," and they tend to live in big cities, which makes them especially vulnerable to being caught in an attack. "So the people in Kansas, say, who could survive and who have a good healthy animal instinct to survive, don't have the leadership or information they need, because these three factors militate against their leaders' taking seriously.....
Even before the world's first atomic bomb exploded in the summer of 1945, those familiar with its power warned that the only effective civil defense against such weapons would be the complete redesign of the American nation. "If the race for nuclear armaments is allowed to develop", Manhattan Project scientists warned in the Franck Report in June 1945, "the only apparent way in which our country can be protected from the paralyzing effects of a sudden attack is by dispersal of those industries which are essential for our war effort and dispersal of the populations of our major metropolitan cities." It would be prudent, Leo Szilard wrote a few weeks after the atomic bombing of Japan, to undertake a ten-year plan for the relocation of thirty to seventy million urban Americans. Large cities could continue to exist, Szilard said, "but they might have to be built in certain shapes," perhaps rectangles one mile wide and fifty miles long. (Compact circular cities could be too easily destroyed by a handful of bombs.)
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5

Cool Breeze
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

Those are great quotes, thanks Tim.

As for the war posts earlier and asking John, I was just wondering why he is so inflexible - he won't actually answer my question. All of us know that there will be another war eventually. We have websites and smart conversations in order to give important, instructive details. Just like in finance, any imbecile can tell you that a recession is coming ... eventually. Great, that helps. As I've joked before, I'm gonna die one day. It's funny for a reason, truly laughable.

My question was, what will John say if there is no war by 2025? What if none by 2030? I'll ask a simple yes or no question, so I get an answer and can leave the topic, since there is clearly no desire to answer it:

Since you are so sure that there will be a war this decade ... if there happens to be NO WAR, will you say that generational dynamics needs re-thinking, at least on some level? A simple "yes" or "no" will do, and an explanation if you desire would be cool as well. Thanks

I'm not attempting or actually, even being annoying here. This thought experiment is important because it is telling in how we should think and how we should be humble about certain things. At least consider all possibilities ... right?

John
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

What will you say if there's a war in 2021? Will you say that John
was right, and apologize to me? It's an honest question. It's a
simple question. Don't be inflexible, now.

Cool Breeze
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

Absolutely! I will sing your praises. I won't apologize, though - Again, I think the probability is high, too - I just don't think there is no chance that it won't even by 2030 (what's funny is that weirdo Bob and I share some common thinking on this, at least a little). I just urge all manner of critical and open thinking and that's why I post what I post. And why also I would give you the proper, grand acclaim should that happen.

Happy New year to all.

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Bob Butler
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Bob Butler »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:02 am
What will you say if there's a war in 2021? Will you say that John was right, and apologize to me? It's an honest question. It's a simple question. Don't be inflexible, now.
Well, not just any war. There are any number of places where tribal thinking is still common. I would say a crisis war by a major power.

Well you accept 2021 as a deadline? You are predicting a crisis war this year?

I see a crisis war as almost likely with China given China's floods, the backfire with China rejecting Australian coal, the questioning of their policy on the Wuhan virus, their brinksmanship with Hong Kong and with most anyone which they share a border with. I am bumping into a number of internet warriors gleefully predicting a Chinese economic collapse. I don't see the US involving itself in a land war in Asia, but China will need to progress towards being a true democracy. They need a check on their elites and leaders. A second Chinese Revolution is very possible, and the current economic problems a possible trigger. The apology will be a little weak if that's the war that develops. I have a feeling we are almost in agreement on that one.

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