** 26-Jan-2021 World View: Admitting I'm wrong
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:42 pm
> John, you should know what I'm gonna say about BTC and being
> wrong, because a) I'm honest and b) there's only one way to go. So
> I don't mind talking about it --- but I've exposed that you are
> still stuck in unfalsifiable thinking --- and you don't like that
> I point that out. Time to come clean.
Oh cut the crap. You're almost as bad as Butler. You've been posting
garbage like this ever since you became a member of the forum. I
don't know what you think you're accomplishing, but all it does is
make me want to ignore you, because it means you're just full of crap,
which is what I've been saying about you almost since day one.
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:42 pm
> The answer of when I'm wrong about BTC is when it is an utter
> failure (your prediction), which is obvious. Banning it is not an
> utter failure, since portability and game theory make it a game
> changer from a world wide mover point of view. If I can get value
> elsewhere, and easily, it is a winner. And a winner it shall
> be.
OK, I'll answer this question, since I've answered it many times
before now on a number of related subjects. So this is nothing new.
The first time I answered a question of this type was in 2004, when
Mike Alexander said (paraphrasing): "You can never be wrong. You're
predicting a stock market crash, and if it doesn't occur, you can just
say that it just hasn't happened yet. So you can never be wrong."
I answered (paraphrasing): "I'm predicting that there will be a
financial crisis, including a stock market crash at some point. The
specific prediction is that public debt will keep increasing to the
point where it becomes unsustainable, and that's when the financial
crisis will occur. If public debt ever starts decreasing, then I will
have to admit that I'm wrong."
I often refer to the old saying, "If something can't go on forever,
then it won't." And increasing public debt can't go on forever.
So even though I made that prediction in 2004, and even though there
hasn't yet been a major financial crisis, the prediction is still true
(or, as I like to say, "trending true") because public debt has been
increasing steadily since 2004.
When US debt was at $20 trillion, I was joking that the government
might as well keep adding to the debt, since there's going to be a
global financial crisis and a world war, and then it probably won't
make any difference whether the US debt is $20 trillion or $22
trillion.
Well today, US debt is at $27 trillion, and the Democrats are about to
add another $2 trillion. So I guess I might as well amend my previous
joke to say that it probably won't matter if public debt is $27
trillion or $29 trillion or $50 trillion.
When the financial crisis and world war occur, the value of bitcoin
will crash to zero or near-zero.
If US debt starts to decrease from $27 trillion to, say $15 trillion
or even $20 trillion, then I'll have to admit I'm wrong. But that
will never happen.
The Chinese Communists are on a trend line of becoming increasingly
horrific war criminals in a number of areas. This can't go on
forever, and the prediction is that this will lead to world war. If
the Chinese Communist Party suddenly changes direction, gives up its
claims to the South China Sea, stops enslaving Uighurs and frees them
from concentration camps, stops jailing pro-democracy activists in
Hong Kong, stops claiming that it owns Taiwan, stops treating the rest
of the world as barbarians or donkeys, starts acting like a
responsible part of the international community -- then I'll have to
admit I'm wrong. But that will never happen.
If the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza all change direction and
agree that they can coexist with a Jewish Israel, then I'll have to
admit I'm wrong. But that will never happen.