Swine Flu Pandemic - Preparation

[John]

> John, if you want to stock up on food, by all means go ahead. But
> remember that this this virus will circulate through the
> population for a long long time, so the only way to be sure of
> avoiding it would be to lock yourself up in a fallout shelter for
> a while. And even then, it will still be around whenever you come
> out. Unless all the birds, pigs, and other humans are dead by
> then. In which case you might be ok.

> Sorry if that sounds harsh, but it's reality. Pretending otherwise
> is probably not helpful.

This is a false choice.

You're saying, "Don't buy a first aid kit for your home, because you
can't use a first aid kit to treat a heart attack or a stroke."

Stocking up on a few days' canned food is like a first aid kit. It
can get you through a temporary public emergency -- not just flu, but
also hurricanes, floods, etc. And it's not a waste of money, because
you can always eat the food.

Now I'll be harsh with you: The worst problem about crisis situations
is that people go into a state of total denial, and won't even take
simple precautions that might protect them in 90% of the time in an
emergency. Nothing works 100% of the time, but simply shutting down
in a state of denial, and then encouraging other people to join you
in that state of denial, is doing a disservice.

Sincerely,

John

[Centuron]

> John, if you want to stock up on food, by all means go ahead. But
> remember that this this virus will circulate through the
> population for a long long time, so the only way to be sure of
> avoiding it would be to lock yourself up in a fallout shelter for
> a while. And even then, it will still be around whenever you come
> out. Unless all the birds, pigs, and other humans are dead by
> then. In which case you might be ok.

> Sorry if that sounds harsh, but it's reality. Pretending otherwise
> is probably not helpful.

This is a false choice.

You're saying, "Don't buy a first aid kit for your home, because you
can't use a first aid kit to treat a heart attack or a stroke."

Stocking up on a few days' canned food is like a first aid kit. It
can get you through a temporary public emergency -- not just flu, but
also hurricanes, floods, etc. And it's not a waste of money, because
you can always eat the food.

Now I'll be harsh with you: The worst problem about crisis situations
is that people go into a state of total denial, and won't even take
simple precautions that might protect them in 90% of the time in an
emergency. Nothing works 100% of the time, but simply shutting down
in a state of denial, and then encouraging other people to join you
in that state of denial, is doing a disservice.

Sincerely,

John

I'll be gentle with both you.
Really I think you both have some sensible ideas on the same theme, just a little mis-communication. This really isn't a good time to be playing at extremes. On one hand, we don't want to panic. We don't want to overburden ourselves or others with needless worry or make rash, overreaching decisions. No need to build a skyscraper where a two-story house would do. On the other hand, denial is just as bad as panic, and we've seen it in action. That's how you get completely blind-sighted and could bring down others as well. I don't think either of you are advocating for either, you're just warning against them.
Some people are going to panic, some people are going to sit in denial, that will happen with certainty. But as good as our predictions can be, we're still not absolutely certain of the future of this virus. I'm not surprised that John and others are a little more worried about this than human actions, because there are differences in the games.

Stocking up on food isn't a bad idea, not just for this crisis, but like John said, any crisis. Growing up near tornado alley as I do, you are generally taught to have resources at hand and a possible contingency plan. So general crisis preparation is always a good idea. It's the same with healthy precautions like washing hands and such and keeping your local doctor's number on hand. It's prep and prevention, but it really helps.
But you still have to live life, so yes a overkill like a fallout shelter can be as hindering as no protection. There are two sides to every bubble: thinking that the outside can't get you or that you can be completely separate from the outside.

The moral of the story, attempt to retain some realism. People will get sick, and it's likely that we will get sick. We don't know, that's the harshest fact. Worrying or quarreling won't change that. The best we can do is have some plan so that if/when we do get sick, or a crisis situation occurs, we have means to ride it out and increase our chances of continuing, and then continue with life. Learn, Prepare, Move On.

[Witchiepoo]

Denial? I'm not in denial. But if I'm going to suggest taking action to protect oneself, I'll make darned sure that it will actually be helpful first. Right now, the best thing that you can probably do is get exposed to this virus, and try to get some natural antibodies going, before it mutates into something even worse.

[jusme]

I will try the realistic approach ?
I live in central fl. I watched as several elderly people died and suffered collapsing in long lines waiting for water after a hurricane interrupted their ability to get water. Had they "known" you can shut off water supply to building and use water stored in hot water tanks. Mine holds 33 gal.That's why I won't invest in new models that attach to the wall.

Another lesson that was shared with me was a friend who was vactioning in New Orleans when Katrina hit.They were stuck and stranded.They were highly educated professionals,had more than enough money to buy what the needed to sustain themselves.It was to dangerous to go out ! At one point in there desperation to get out they and a few other people were making their way as they could see news trucks comming and going everyday and asked them for help as well.No takers ! They were running toward that overpass that has been mentioned where shots were being fired. Several policemen were heading out also. One cop handed my friends husband "his " gun and said" here and good luck" They turned back. I'm prepared for the unexpected !

I can assure you that if all hell breaks lose you are on your own and you will "wish" you had made a better choice.If you have people that depend on that choice "lord help them " ! But if all else fails FEMA will help you ?

Sincerely Jus me

[jusme]

I forgot to mention that during the Bay of Pig crisis my Dad built a bomb shelter. With great relief it was not needed.Several people built them. When those houses go up for sale they sell quicker than all others .

I think most people use them for storage. But it is in the back of their minds they have it "if they need " It's there.

Sincerely, Jus me

[Samir]

Texas confirms first flu death of US resident

Texas health officials on Tuesday announced the first death of a U.S. resident with swine flu, and said she was a 33-year-old schoolteacher who had recently given birth to a healthy baby.

The woman died early Tuesday and had been hospitalized since April 19, said Leonel Lopez, Cameron County epidemiologist.

Health officials stopped short of saying that swine flu caused the woman's death. State health department spokeswoman Carrie Williams said the woman had "chronic underlying health conditions" but wouldn't give any more details.

Lopez said the flu exacerbated the woman's condition. "The swine flu is very benign by itself," Lopez said. But "by the time she came to see us it was already too late."

[Witchiepoo]

Top flu expert warns of a swine flu-bird flu mix

This is the scenario that has some scientists worried: The two viruses meet — possibly in Asia, where bird flu is endemic — and combine into a new bug that is both highly contagious and lethal and can spread around the world.

Scientists are unsure how likely this possibility is, but note that the new swine flu strain — a never-before-seen mixture of pig, human and bird viruses — has shown itself to be especially adept at snatching evolutionarily advantageous genetic material from other flu viruses.

[John]

Top flu expert warns of a swine flu-bird flu mix

> This is the scenario that has some scientists worried: The two
> viruses meet — possibly in Asia, where bird flu is endemic — and
> combine into a new bug that is both highly contagious and lethal
> and can spread around the world.

> Scientists are unsure how likely this possibility is, but note
> that the new swine flu strain — a never-before-seen mixture of
> pig, human and bird viruses — has shown itself to be especially
> adept at snatching evolutionarily advantageous genetic material
> from other flu viruses.

Thanks for posting this. I had mentioned this as a possibly in my
first weblog article on swine flu a month ago, but I didn't mention it
again because it seemed too alarmist.

Here's the thing. I really have the feeling that there's a
"non-trivial probability" that I'm going to die from this in the
fall. Maybe I'm just being over-anxious, but I can compute
probabilities, and based on the numerous articles I've read, I think
that this is a serious possibility.

Thus, when we talk about doing various things to prepare, like
stocking up on food, there's one more bit of preparation that we
should be thinking about, and you're going to love this one Witchie.

We should use the time this summer to "put our affairs in order."
That means things like getting our wills up to date, telling our
families where all the important papers are, burning our porn
collections, and so forth -- whatever can reasonably be done.

There's another reason for speed. As I wrote earlier today in
another thread, with the imminent bankruptcies of the Detroit auto
companies, I have a feeling that all hell is about to break loose.
Depending on the scenario, that may mean we won't have any money by
the end of the summer - or at least we won't have any more credit.

So now is the time to put our affairs in order - while we still have
money, and while we're still in good health.

Sincerely,

John

[The Grey Badger]

John. I can't speak for men, but have been told that when a woman - and especially one with risk factors for heart disease - has a feeling of impending doom, it is time to go get her heart checked. That even doctors are accepting that feeling as a real symptom nowadays. I know your predictions and projections have led you to certain conclusions, but the jump between those rational conclusions and your feeling that you are going to die this year -- please. Go get your heart checked.

Pat.

[John]

Dear Pat,

> John. I can't speak for men, but have been told that when a woman
> - and especially one with risk factors for heart disease - has a
> feeling of impending doom, it is time to go get her heart checked.
> That even doctors are accepting that feeling as a real symptom
> nowadays. I know your predictions and projections have led you to
> certain conclusions, but the jump between those rational
> conclusions and your feeling that you are going to die this year
> -- please. Go get your heart checked.

Thanks for your concern, but not only do I have a very good doctor,
whom I see regularly, but I'm also part of the "world famous"
Framingham heart study. So as far as any doctor can tell, my heart
is in great shape.

Should I now make some sniggling remark about the differences between
men and women?

Sincerely,

John