Swine Flu Pandemic - Preparation

[protagonist]

I don't believe in any of the hype around this swine flu. I think it is a power grab by government and a money grab by the drug companies. Together with a complicit media (as always) we are being fed mass propaganda to instill fear, panic and complicity.

Eat well, exercise, keep a stash of storable food in your home. Those are recommendations I would make to anyone at anytime. But to avoid public gatherings is way over the top. Especially for a disease that has killed far fewer people than the average flu does.

The real issue is not the news. It is the reaction to the news. We are in a period of declining social mood. People are more likely to believe the worst if they are already pessimistic. That is why this has received even more coverage as SARS with a fraction of the casualties.

It works both ways. The media feeds us bullshit because bullshit is what we demand. Compare the popularity of the Great Global Warming Swindle to the popularity of the Inconvenient Truth. We want to be scared, so the media feeds us scare stories. We want to believe in fantasies, so the media feeds us fantasy stories. The content of the media reflects popular demand.
The drug companies obviously have a lot to profit from these hypes. That is one reason hypes concerning imaginary diseases are fed into the public mind. However, if the public was not so susceptible to these delusions, then the drug companies could do nothing, so this effect is not only caused by the greed of the drug companies but also the stupidity of the public.

[Samir]

Mexico confirms four more A/H1N1 flu deaths, toll reaches 26

He added that 17 of the 26 people who died of confirmed H1N1 flu virus, or around 65 percent, were between 21 and 40, usually the group that is most resistant to diseases.

So I've done some digging because I wanted to know about the confirmed cases and deaths. I've also been looking at time lines of the 1918 pandemic and it seems to be following a similar pattern.

1918 Influenza Timeline

The interesting thing form the timeline is there isn't any deaths mentioned until September.

[jwfid]

Hi everyone,

I wonder if my family has already had it (and I'm the last). We live close to the border and I know several people who have been mildly sick lately (including my family). I've sent my family members to the doctor though and they have been diagnosed with flu (not swine), and sinus infection. Another didn't go to the doctor and "toughed" it out. A friend was voluntarily "quarantined" away from his family awaiting results.

I hope Witchipoo is right and we have all been naturally vaccinated against the "big one" that might come this fall.

Joe

[Witchiepoo]

There is also a regular cold going around.

But remember when everyone thought they were going to get the West Nile virus? Didn't happen.

I still think it's a good idea to do whatever we can to keep this from turning into the Big One though. Eventually Mother Nature will get lucky.

[protagonist]

Well apparently pandemics have something to do with solar activity - that's what some scientists say. In some graphs pandemics do correspond with solar activity.

There's loads of theories. Some say the increased activity drives the charged virus particles down into Earth, others say the radiation mutates the virus into a deadlier strain. Maybe it does something to the immune system.

[StilesBC]

"I think the government has actually been doing a pretty good job at trying to keep people calm."

Really? The WHO called the crisis a "threat to all of humanity." -- http://news.scotsman.com/world/39Threat ... 5225485.jp

Governments have also been advising (and providing) people to wear masks that do absolutely nothing to prevent the spread of the virus (one needs a microbial mask to do any good). The visions of masked people walking all over the place does nothing other than instill fear and panic in others. They are a visual reminder that "it's not safe."

Government says, "it appears that the virus is contained." But then says that it could come back bigger and stronger in autumn. Isn't that the case with any strain of flu virus? Various flu strains bounce back and forth from northern and southern hemispheres for years mutating countless times and killing hundreds sometimes thousands in a normal flu season. Why don't we get WHO and CDC proclamations on our front pages about those strains? Why are 20 something deaths of one strain all of a sudden causing the government, media, health organizations and drug companies to act in a seemingly coordinated manner of panic?

Answer: Each have the motive and previously set precedent to do so. And I am 99% sure that is what is going on here.

[Witchiepoo]

An explanation:

The new swine flu virus is not merely a case of the usual gradual evolution. The big change scientists have seen with this strain is called a "shift."

The most infamous shift was the virus that appeared in 1917 and caused the deadly flu pandemic of 1918. That virus then became the dominant variety of flu for several decades. Then in 1957, it was displaced by another shift virus.

There was yet another shift in 1968, says Stephen Morse at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health.

[Samir]

Really? The WHO called the crisis a "threat to all of humanity."

1. The WHO is not a government. I was talking more about national Governments, specifically the US government. They have been realistic about the probability this will become a pandemic and simply asked citizens to prepare for it. They didn't give out masks. Some schools were there were cases got shut down, that's about it. Life has continued pretty much the same for most of us.

2.Read the words yourself: Statement by WHO Director-General, Dr Margaret Chan

"Above all, this is an opportunity for global solidarity as we look for responses and solutions that benefit all countries, all of humanity. After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threatduring a pandemic."

It's not fear mongering, just the definition of a pandemic.

Government says, "it appears that the virus is contained." But then says that it could come back bigger and stronger in autumn. Isn't that the case with any strain of flu virus? Various flu strains bounce back and forth from northern and southern hemispheres for years mutating countless times and killing hundreds sometimes thousands in a normal flu season. Why don't we get WHO and CDC proclamations on our front pages about those strains? Why are 20 something deaths of one strain all of a sudden causing the government, media, health organizations and drug companies to act in a seemingly coordinated manner of panic?

Witchiepoo, John, and many others have brought up points that show that this particular virus is unusual. While the number of casualties is low now, the age group affect is not usual. In a recent weblog John talked about how the probability of a more virulent wave in the fall being "non-trivial". This basically means that while there is a normal (trivial) probability of any virus doing such, this particular virus has a greater chance. This is why everyone is taking notice.

I was reading in the Generational Theory Forum about the 58-year hypothesis. Is there any previous events that may be causing us to take notice of this virus or would this not be applicable?

[Marshall Kane]

John, thank you for compiling all this flu info for us - and thanks to everyone for contributing. I'm starting to miss the good 'ol days when this stuff was all theoretical.

A few things that have been mentioned, but I'm still not clear on:

Are people who become exposed and recover from the early minor strain of this type of flu in any way protected from later mutations?

Also, for a young adult in danger of a c-storm is there a way to weaken the immune system? For instance, if someone comes down with flu symptoms is it then dangerous to do all of the things we would normally do when we feel sick - such as take vitamin C, get lots of rest, etc.???

When the pandemic hits, then, is one advised to stay up all night, chain smoke and shoot heroin with dirty needles?

[Witchiepoo]

When you get the flu, your body makes antibodies to it which stick around for a while. However, each antibody type is specific to each flu type. If the flus are similar enough, the antibodies will work to at least some degree. How much depends on how close the two viruses are antigenically, and your own body chemistry. Also, after a while, your body stops making those antibodies. Again, that time period is variable, depending on different factors.

If you want to shoot up heroin when the pandemic hits, by all means go ahead! But it won't help prevent a cytokine storm. Your immune system isn't like an electrical outlet with a dimmer switch. It's a lot more complicated than that, and the whole cytokine storm thing isn't even that well understood. I think some aspects of that were covered earlier on this thread, so you might want to check a few pages back.