https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/rec ... recession/
Note: in two posts because of size limitations.
Everyone Sings the “Strong Labor Market” Tune in Unison as the Band Plays on, and They’re All DEAD Wrong!
Illustration of the Titanic sinking with iceberg in background
Everyone in financial media is singing in unison, and the song they are all singing is a recessional for the recession — a hymn or musical piece sung while making an exit. It’s an attempt to make the recession recede from view, to talk it out of existence, to convince everyone that what is, is naught, and it’s working in this Wonderland world where so many now define things — even their own gender and, yes, now race too — as they want them to be. However, it is actually the singers, themselves, who are receding from reality.
The following post, originally shared only with my Patrons on September 4, is the key for understanding the massive error the Fed (and markets) are making. I promised I would share it with everyone before the Fed’s big meeting this week, so here it is with a few updates:
President Biden has been bending over backward to declare we are not in a recession, in spite of two quarters of increasingly lower gross domestic production. Papa Powell has been bending backward right beside him. And, of course, everyone who works for either of them is doing the same backbend. Biden and Powell, thus, look like two old men leading a yoga class in the standing backbend.
It is not just these relics who are doing the backbends. Economists and corporate CEOs and anyone who wants to convince the world that business is good (or anyone who wants to see Democrats re-elected) has gotten in the flow and joined the Biden-Powell yoga class. In unison, they do a recessional march backward as they sing the same tune, not realizing Pied Piper Powell is marching them all aboard a demonic ark set to sail to their own peril.
The song they sing to chase the recession out of view is called “We’re not in a recession yet.” Its chorus claims, “because the labor market is strong.” They sing this illusion almost like sirens, beckoning a ship to steer into the rocks — their own ship. In spite of two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic production splashing against the rocks and making the peril around them obvious, the quartermaster orders the tightening of the lines and turning of the tiller, and the ship lists and turns harder into the rocks.
One writer, MN Gordon, whose articles I share on my blog from time to time, described how absurd this official foolishness looks in the following words:
Elizabeth Warren must be a fool. That, or she thinks the rest of us are fools.
The Senator recently took to CNN to publicly fret over the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. She’s worried they will tip the economy into recession.
What’s Warren afraid of? Her fears have already come true.
The U.S. economy already is in a recession. GDP data alone shows the economy contracted in both the first and second quarter of 2022.Economic Prism
In our world of make-believe reality, US senators are fearing that the obvious thing that has already happened might happen. That’s our upside-down world. The Fed, they argue, needs to stop trying so hard to kill inflation, or it will shove us into the hole we are already in! The data to prove we’re already in the hole streams in front of their eyes month after month, quarter after quarter, but somehow they don’t believe the data. Seeking Alpha , as it sings the same tune, summarizes the reason the delusional chorus doesn’t believe in the recession that has already engulfed them:
Economists are expecting 300K jobs were added in August, down from the larger-than-expected 528K added in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at a 50-year low of 3.5%. A strong jobs showing means that FOMC policymakers will likely be considering another 75-basis-point rate increase later this month as they seek to tamp down demand and control inflation while the labor market is strong.
And that, you see, it the key to understanding the illusion that hides the rocks of recession that we are already grinding past.
Everyone is picking up the tune to the labor lyrics
Bank of America describes just how successful the labor tune has been at convincing the stock market that the recession all around investors is not real. According to their strategist, Savita Subramanian,
Our analysis of the ERP indicates a 20% likelihood of a recession is now priced in vs. 36% in June. In March, stocks priced in a 75% probability of recession.Investing.com
In other words, the further we have gone into the rocks of recession, the less likelihood BofA has seen that the stock market is pricing it in. Now, that’s delusional! Back in June, BofA saw a 36% likelihood the stock market had actually priced in a recession. Further back in March they saw a 75% likelihood the market had already priced in a recession. But today, with two recessionary quarters already under our belt for the year, BofA sees only a 20% likelihood the stock market has priced itself properly for a recession.
Sheer lunacy. The deeper we have gone into an actual recession, the more delusional the market has become in thinking a recession is not even going to happen in the future, much less today. We saw BofA’s downward revisions to the likelihood that that market has positioned itself for a recession play out in the big bear-market rally we just had in August where, typical to all bear markets, the bulls became rabid with fevered brains again, so they charged ahead on a spending spree, bidding the market way up beyond all reason at a time in which GDP is steadily declining. That was all anchored on the fantasy of a Powell Pivot, suddenly turning the ship from the rocks as it took a glancing blow. However, Powell at Jackson Hole finally tried to dispel them all from believing in the pivot, even though he keeps singing the “no recession yet” tune. The bull trap sprang, and the market is falling again as we head into Powell’s next meeting where few are expecting a lifeline.
A crisis like no other, a crash for the history books
People all around us are failing to recognize the obvious due to the oblivious, such as the Fed, who keep singing there is no recession yet because the labor market is strong. That is supposedly proven by unemployment remaining so low. It seems nearly everyone joined the back-bending and piled like sardines into the ark of doom to declare the delusion that an obvious recession does not yet exist:
Nobel Prize-winning economist says he doesn’t see anything that resembles a recession in the U.S.…Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler says the U.S. may have recorded two successive quarters of economic contraction, but it’s “just funny” to describe it as being a recession.
“I don’t see anything that resembles a recession. We have record low unemployment, record high [job] vacancies. That looks like a strong economy,” Thaler told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum on Wednesday.CNBC
The proof he has to offer is the now familiar tune that record low unemployment, which I keep saying is an anomaly due to a broken labor market that is unable to supply a work force, is solid evidence the economy is strong. Due to their overconfidence in old measures, they fail to analyze why certain metrics are in discord. (Rest assured, I’m heading toward why here.) Thus, the Nobel economist says,
That means real GDP fell a little bit, but I think it’s just funny to call that a recession,” he said. “It’s not like any recession we’ve seen in my rather long lifetime.”
So funny. It never used to be funny to call “a little bit” of a fall in GDP a recession. Rather than seek to understand the discordance in the tune, he minimizes it. “Ignore the groaning against the rocks. It’s funny.” It’s true that this is not like any recession he’s ever seen, which is exactly what makes the labor situation such a tone-deaf spot for him and many others. What if the Covidcrisis created a recession that is unlike any other because it started unlike any other with a forced lockdown of the entire global economy and grave illness, so economists aren’t understanding the normal definition of a recession as applying even though they should because it is masked behind the anomalies of this strange period we’ve entered:
U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, fell by 0.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. Two consecutive falls in GDP growth meet the traditional definition of a recession.
Yet, this is a guy who, more than any other economist, ought to be able to recognize a recession caused by a health crisis (and by our response to it):
Thaler, the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, is best known for his work in behavioral economics — and for explaining the so-called “hot hand” fallacy alongside singer Selena Gomez in the 2015 film “The Big Short.”
His work looks at how people make decisions that are seemingly irrational according to economic theory, and his co-written book, “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness,”
Zero Hedge lays out the fact that most economists, in spite of half a year of deepening economic decline, see the recession as something that has not yet hit:
An overwhelming number of economists think a recession will hit the United States by the middle of next year, according to a survey by The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) published on Monday….72 percent of economists polled expect a recession to begin by the middle of next year, including 19 percent of those who said the United States is already in a recession, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
The NBER defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
The standard definition of a recession is also based on two consecutive quarters of declining gross national product, as has been seen in the United States.Zero Hedge
Well, we’ve already seen a significant decline in economic activity that has spread across six months. Yet, only 19% of the 72% think a recession has already begun, while all the rest believe we are not in a recession yet, though one is coming within a year.
Nine percent of economists polled say the recession will start in the third quarter of this year and another 16 percent say it will begin in the fourth quarter. More than one-quarter of respondents (28 percent) expect a recession to begin in the first half of 2023, split between 22 percent who see the recession hitting in the first quarter and six percent who forecast it will hit in the second quarter.
Yet, they’re six months deep in declining economic activity according to GDP. So, why do the vast majority of these economists not recognize the recession in which they are already standing but sing a song that describes a different reality than they are in?
Over and over, I read the same reasoning:
Nick Timiraos … the new generation’s Fed-trial ballooner … has become a bit of a celebrity in Fed watching circles as everything he says is now viewed as gospel explicitly coming from Powell’s mouth….
“The latest strong employment figures keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates by either 0.5 or 0.75 percentage point at its meeting later this month to combat high inflation.”Zero Hedge
It’s always the same tune — the latest strong employment figures. Even an economist I enjoy reading who has been saying recession would arrive by this summer is giving the same reason for saying the economy is not, yet, in recession:
The US economy is in technical recession, though it’s debatable whether it is practically in recession given the relative strength in the labor market, The Sounding Line
The illusion is strong, in spite of the fact that he notes numerous other signs that the economy is in recession and concludes,
Indeed the fixation on whether this is a ‘recession’ or not is probably misplaced in this garbled economic environment.
Garbled, indeed, and this Patron Post will finally reveal the cause of the garbling; but, first, I want to make sure you fully grasp the extent to which economists are almost all caught in the same garble, which leaves them tone deaf to recognizing that it is the the job numbers that are off pitch, not GDP. They just sing and huddle in their shuddering hull to the tune of Fed and feds, cacophonous inside the reality groaning against the ship’s splintering sides.
Even those who believe in the worst, still can’t fully understand the grumblings of recession they are stuck in; but they do believe, at least, that a terrible recession must surely be close for things to sound so bad. They can’t seem to avoid that much:
Worst is yet to come: Economist Stephen Roach says U.S. needs ‘miracle’ to avoid recession
Negative economic growth in the year’s first half may be a foreshock to a much deeper downturn that could last into 2024.CNBC
Call it “negative economic growth,” but, whatever you do, don’t go as far as to call it a “recession.” Save the “R” word for things we might, by some miracle, still avoid. Don’t admit we’re already hung up in the Rocks of Recession. Never mind that “negative growth” is the exact definition of a recession if it lasts for “more than a few months,” and this has gone on already for half a year! I will, at least, give this ivy-league economist this much: he can sense from the rumblings that something wicked this way comes:
Stephen Roach, who served as chair of Morgan Stanley Asia, warns the U.S. needs a “miracle” to avoid a recession.
“We’ll definitely have a recession as the lagged impacts of this major monetary tightening start to kick in,” Roach told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday.
And, yet, he misses it, too:
“They haven’t kicked in at all right now.”
So close and yet so far! And why can Roach not recognize the rocks we’re in? The standard labor-market tone-deafness:
Roach, a Yale University senior fellow and former Federal Reserve economist, suggests Fed Chair Jerome Powell has no choice but to take a Paul Volcker approach to tightening….
“Go back to the type of pain Paul Volcker had to impose on the U.S. economy to ring out inflation. He had to take the unemployment rate above 10%,” said Roach. “The only way we’re not going to get there is if the Fed under Jerome Powell sticks to his word, stays focused on discipline, and gets that real Federal funds rate into the restrictive zone. And, the restrictive zone is a long ways away from where we are right now.”
The Fed has a lot more tightening to do, says Roach, at least, affirming my endless reiterations that there would be “NO FED PIVOT.” He understands that part correctly; however, when we get to the reason he doesn’t think all this declining GDP is a recession … yet …
Despite the Fed’s sharp interest rate hike trajectory, the unemployment rate is at 3.5%. It matches the lowest level since 1969.…
“The fact that it hasn’t happened [unemployment hasn’t climbed] and the Fed has done a significant monetary tightening to date shows you how much work they have to do,” he noted. “The unemployment rate has got to go probably above 5%, hopefully not a whole lot higher than that. But it could go to 6%.”
Keep those numbers in mind. They are key. We’re actually already there, and I’ll explain why you don’t hear about it and why he doesn’t’ recognize it, nor do any of his colleagues or, for that matter, anyone I’m reading, even though he says that level of unemployment must happen to quell inflation, and why the Fed doesn’t recognized it at all; but first, let’s explore further just how prevailing this perception is.
Here’s another good economist — one I read all the time — who doesn’t believe we’re in a recession … again because the labor market doesn’t affirm it yet:
Recession Watch: This Labor Market is Not There Yet
In recent months, there have been many reports about layoffs, but most of those layoffs were small, a few hundred people here and a few hundred people there…. But they were a far cry from the mass layoffs of 15,000 or 20,000 people by company, the way they occurred one after the other in prior recessions….
The number of people that continued to be on unemployment insurance after the initial claim – “insured unemployment” – dipped in the latest week by 19,000 to 1.415 million (seasonally adjusted), just a tad above the historic lows in May, and still near those historic lows, and far lower than during any other period. This shows how strong this labor market has been, starting in the second half last year – when “labor shortages” became a thing – through today:Wolf Street
Wolf Street
In spite of what you see in that graph, I’ll maintain the position I’ve had all year, which is that the labor market is badly broken, not strong at all, and because of the unusual nature of the breakdown, the instruments of measurement are putting out misleading readings. Thus, the readings are as follows:
So we see that there has been a slight increase in unemployment claims [the minuscule uptick at the bottom], such as from layoffs, but they’re up from historic lows and are still historically low; and that insured unemployment is still right at historic lows.What this tells us is that the labor market is still very strong; and that most people who are laid off are able to land a new job quickly, or already have a new job lined up before they leave their old job, and they either don’t stay on unemployment insurance long because they start working again, or never bother to file for unemployment insurance because they walked out from the old job into the new job.
Seeing through the mist
Keep that last part in mind as we proceed. Yes, it does tell us they quit their job and never bothered to file for unemployment, BUT it will prove to be for another reason that has nothing to do with anything good like finding a better job. There is a reason we’ll come to as to why none of these people are even applying for unemployment, which no one (until now) has been thinking about — one truly insidious, very bad reason that no one wants to regard seriously because it is outside the normal scope of our experience and represents a chronic, long-term threat to the entire global economy.
Look hard into the spray, and you can make out the rocks that are the reason for the spray.
One sign that the quits are not due to a strong labor market and a strong economy is the fact that the number of people now holding TWO full-time jobs is soaring to record highs:
Zero Hedge
People do not typically hold two full-time jobs unless they have to in order to make ends meet. This also shows us that many of the people being counted as full-time employed may be getting counted twice because the measure of full-time employment doesn’t check to see if two jobs might be held by one person, who is likely holding the second job because that is what it takes to survive … maybe due to inflation, maybe due to a spouse being unemployed for reasons I’m coming to. It means total employment in terms of people employed is lower than graphs of total employment because they count jobs held, not individual people who hold the jobs.
In fact we can see an enormous disparity has developed between two surveys covering the number of full-time employees that is likely due, at least in part, to how that double employment gets counted:
Zero Hedge
Says Zero Hedge,
So what’s going on here? The simple answer: Fewer people working, but more people working more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey….
The BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (perhaps with the occasional nudge from the White House especially now that the economy is in a technical recession) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly.Zero Hedge
Even ZH has to go and throw in the word “technical” as if we are not there yet just because the NBER hasn’t pronounced an official recession, but I doubt even the NBER’s economists will see through this illusion any better than all the august economists recounted above. The economy is not growing at all. It’s receding.
The wide gap between the surveys may also be due to the power of seasonal adjustments in the government’s reports (the Establishment Survey).
While the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.
The illusion is strong. Strong enough to get the midterm election out of the way before the government breaks and possibly admits we’re in a recession. Awful and likely as holding the truth off for the sake of the elections is, it’s still not the insidious cause of this misleading employment information, but it may be a contributing factor. There is something deeper and more malign than standard election-year engineering that I’ll lay out now that you can see how pervasive the misguided belief is.
The Fed’s big deaf zone
Remember last year, I said the key to understanding the most important economic story of the year — high inflation and a dawning recession crashing the stock market — would be in realizing why the inversion of the yield curve — the Fed’s main recession warning indicator — would be slow to reveal its truth because it was not being allowed to price either inflation or a recession in? The key was to realize the Fed’s massive bond-buying inevitably resulted in total yield-curve control by the Fed because it naturally distributed its bond purchases across the full spectrum in a way that would make sure its buying did not distort the yield curve. The failure of that old-faithful signal to work correctly because of the Fed’s extraordinary measures was keeping people from seeing what was forming, including the inflation the curve would normally price in, which they, therefore, dismissed as “transitory.”
If the yield curve, under natural market forces, wanted to change to show us the bad that was coming, the Fed’s choice to maintain the curve by where it positioned its purchases in order not to distort the curve, would mean the Fed was actually forcing a distortion by not allowing it to distort. They merely thought their purchases were tending to distort the curve one way, so they needed to place their purchases to avoid that. In so doing, the Fed was forcing the yield curve to stay right where the Fed believed it should be. Because the Fed was the biggest whale in the bond pool, its purchases inevitably had that power based on where they were placed along the maturity spectrum. The Fed would naturally buy as many bonds at each inflection point in the curve as it had to in order to keep the curve in good form because it didn’t want to distort it. However, that was distorting it if the bond market really wanted to price in inflation or price in a recession.
The Fed’s interference in the bond market did not stop GDP from going right to showing a recession that began in the first quarter of the year, whether bond yields were free to price in a warning or not. This misled many economists into believing a recession was not forming because their main indicator — the yield curve — could not work. They could not think their way to seeing why it wouldn’t work, obvious as it was that the Fed’s massive bond buying HAD to be affecting the yield curve. This usually trustworthy gauge couldn’t show what it normally shows because the Fed was hosing up more treasuries than at any time in history.
Thus, I argued that, as quickly as the Fed tapered its bond buying, the yield curve would start to invest to what it had not been allowed to show, and it certainly did exactly that — becoming one of the wackiest, most distorted yield curves I’ve ever seen. Here it is with the curve at the bottom from a year ago being the relatively normal kind of pattern the Fed’s bond buying was maintaining back then, and the top (present) “curve” being highly indicative of a recession, albeit late to the game because treasuries couldn’t recurve until the Fed stopped its massive interference in the treasury market. Look at the huge difference the whale made, getting out of the pool:
MarketWatch
[And here is an update added to show how much more inverted with the front end humping up above the far end it has become as I make this post now available to everyone just two weeks later:]
The original key last year was to understand Fed & Co. were all blinded by the yield curve being controlled by the Fed’s belief it was merely avoiding distorting the curve when the curve actually wanted to distort to price in inflation long ago … so that the inversion arrived late at the party. That is now one seriously ugly yield curve because it’s making up for lost time, and it began to show up as quickly as the Fed started backing away from buying additional treasuries, as I promised it would. It has become even more distorted now that the Fed is rolling off its treasury holdings, [which will move up to full-pitch this week.]
Now, however, we have a new broken gauge distorting the Fed’s perception and all the economists who follow along with the Fed. This time it is not something they are doing to themselves. It is something governments did to the entire world with their lockdowns and that Covid or the vaccines or both have done that we are slow to understand, but it is finally being grasped in all of its horror.
The labor market is another major gauge the Fed relies heavily on for assessing whether we are in recession, and it has become the Fed’s deaf zone this year. Last year the Fed’s blind spot was that inflation was transitory. This year the Fed is deaf because it thinks labor is not transitory — that it hasn’t changed for the worse yet. The Fed doesn’t hear the crying of the unemployed because it doesn’t know where to look for them. Almost no one does because they are not in the statistics. And the Fed is wrong! Dead wrong!
Powell badly misunderstands the current job market, and I can finally explain why. While I’ve said all year that the labor gauge is the measure that is off, not GDP, I couldn’t figure out just why it was off. Up to now, I’ve merely pointed out that the labor market clearly could not supply labor, and that has to mean the market is broken because that is its only job, but I couldn’t answer why it couldn’t supply labor.
One thing that should have been logically self-evident, hasn’t been to many: The shortage of employees is a problem, not a strength. Labor is not tight because demand is making the economy so strong that labor can’t keep up — the sign of a strong economy. Rather, for some unclear reason, a large percentage of the people who became unemployed due to the Covid lockdowns, stepped out of the labor force for good. They never came back. People started calling this “The Great Resignation” as they puzzled over its cause. Everyone ventured reasons as to why it might be happening, including me, but no one was really sure, including me, why so many people had left the force.
The following graph shows where employment broke and the level to which it is has now recovered, according to “The Establishment Survey.” As you can see it is up to the same level at which it broke. However, the red dotted line is the trend line along which employment growth had generally followed population growth. While we’ve recovered to where employment was before Covid, you can see we are far from catching back up with the population/employment growth trend:
Federal Reserve
And here is “The Household Survey” of the same employment trends — the survey that is less subject to political manipulation via smoothening seasonal adjustments:
Based on these surveys, we are about 4-5-million below the longterm trend still. The big question on everyone’s mind has been “What is the Great Resignation about? Where have these people gone?”
What you’re about to see in the next section is that the Fed’s misunderstanding of what is happening here in labor is resulting in a huge miscalculation by the Fed about how strong the economy is, which will result in policy errors as bad as the Fed’s refusal to see inflation last year.
The job market is far from being as healthy as most economists believe because it is simply UNABLE to supply normally adequate labor, and we now have news I’ll lay out that finally explains what is causing the Great Resignation and why that cause means the labor market will remain chronically disabled and, therefore, underproductive. “Underproductive” means we have more months of declining GDP to come.
If you’re inclined to doubt the big boys can all be soooo wrong on something so important to where they can — all in unison — miss seeing it when it is right in front of their faces — and to think no little David could possibly challenge that which Goliath scoffs at — just think back to last year, and remember how the Fed claimed for months that inflation was transitory and everyone followed along while yours truly kept assuring you it was not. The Fed’s blind spot resulted in a great miscalculation by the Fed on how long it could continue low interest and could keep expanding the foundation for money supply, causing inflation to fly completely out of control. We all realize that now, including the Fed most of all with pie on its face. We are now watching a similar miscalculation unfold.
The Fed admits it finds the labor market mysterious at present. Its failure to understand that we are already in recession means it will not stop its tightening until the economy is deep in recession, just as being wrong about transitory inflation meant it would not start its tightening to curb inflation until inflation was already wildly out of control because the Fed didn’t’ believe in the inflation that was all around it any more than it now appears to believe in the recession it is standing in (just as Fed Chair Bernanke failed to recognize in the past). It wrongly thought that inflation would go away on its own. It even apparently thought the economy continued to need its support, in spite of the strong jobs market, because it certainly kept printing money and low interest policy going far too long.
It may be the Fed doesn’t even believe its own tune. It could be that they have to sing the tune because they now HAVE to fight inflation because it is their legal mandate to do so, and they took it way out of control. People, like Liz Warren, would feel great peril if they believed the Fed was tightening the economy when the economy is already sinking into recession. So, it’s possible the Fed knows we are in recession but must itself time by convincing everyone there is no recession in order to create space for its tightening.
Thus, Senator Warren feels the recession, so she fears the Fed’s tightening, even as she sings along with the “no recession yet” tune for the sake of her fellow Democrats who know the electorate usually throws out whoever is in power during the time when we sink into recession. She’s either a fool who is oblivious to the obvious, as so many seem to be, yet feels the recession, so she is worried about it; or she’s knowingly trying to maintain Democrat denial about the recession because it’s hard for the incumbent party in power to get re-elected in an election year when the economy is falling into recession. Thus, no Democrat can admit the obvious truth or perhaps none or willing to look hard through the mist to see what they fear to see.
I’m inclined to think she is one of the many tools who believes the delusion for the simple reason that plenty of Republicans seem to be singing along with the “no recession yet” tune, too, as do almost all economists, as noted by ZH, because they all believe and parrot whatever the Fed tells them. Let’s not forget Warren helped create the inflation during the Covidcrisis by pushing the Fed to fuel the economy and by pushing her government colleagues to distribute free money to the masses, whom they forced into totally unproductive unemployment. That gives her plenty of built-in denial toward believing she helped cause the problem with her own policy pressure for lockdowns and money printing.
The fundamental fact is today’s consumer price inflation fiasco is a direct result of Washington’s spending policies. The coronavirus hysteria provided the perfect excuse to spew printing press money into the economy. Warren was one of the greatest advocates.
The Fed, for its part, merely obliged the wishes of Congress. It created credit from thin air and loaned it to the Treasury in the form of Treasury note purchases.The Treasury then obliged the wishes of Congress…. It used the money that was borrowed from the Fed to fund stimmy checks, PPP, and generous federal unemployment payments. This was all to meet the legislative demands of Warren and the other knaves in Congress.Economic Prism
They all sang along in unison back then, and they all continued to sing along and marched bent over backwards into the same boat all of this year, claiming no recession when we are obviously in one.
Their actions were highly destructive. And now we all must live in the discombobulated world they made.
So, now let’s get down to the cause of the Great Resignation and our present foundering shipwreck on the rocks to which it blinded us.
The cause of the Great Resignation tells us why unemployment figures are grossly in error, and the error is NOT transitory