Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Reminder: She has left the stage... Transportation slower, gas, rail, ground.
Other: april 4th 2011 Platts 62 percent iron ore index IODBZ00-PLT stood at $175.50 a tonne, including freight.
62-percent iron ore IODBZ00-PLT to $97.50 per tonne, the lowest since November 2009, based on data from information provider Platts.
In our view, iron ore prices below $100/tonne look oversold, with close to 50 percent of Chinese iron ore supply losing money.
But we are unlikely to see the market bounce back until mine supply starts to wind down in the coming months

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07fTsF5B ... r_embedded#!

The solution to the euro problem:



http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... llery.html

aedens wrote:I understand the last bump would perk up some activity. It caught me off guard also.

OLD1953 wrote:I don't think there'll be a QE3.

The way I read the market, the final top conventionally speaking, fundamentally speaking, was August 6. Now the market is vacillating like a bridge getting ready to collapse.

Based on the economy, reading fundamentals, there's nothing left as is being pointed out. That fact would have put the high in on the stock market by August 6 at the very latest by my read if only fundamentals mattered.

However, in this goofy Federal Reserve created rat laboratory we live in, there is excess money that sloshes over to the casino (stock market), speculating that even more excess money will be created. Problem is, nobody really knows how much there is or what will bring it into the casino, or how high prices will go or for how long. It's not a question that can be answered by looking at fundamentals because fundamentals have ceased to matter.

We can make guesses by looking at market movement since August 6 where we see a series of higher highs and lower lows (depends on the index though). The higher highs would represent overshoots due to the excess money.

Now some would say there's no excess money and the velocity is slow. But that only measures the fundamentally based economy. Over in the casino, there is money entering at the expense of the real economy and the velocity in the casino is very, very fast.

I believe Bernake wanted to err on the side of excess money. I don't believe he wants more excess money. What I mean by that specifically is that at some time in the past he wanted to err on the side of excess, not knowing what the "right amount" would be in the future, but now he can see there is excess. Therefore, it's also my guess there will be no QE3. If true, that should be enough to put a top in on the stock market. Problem is, in this position, I don't understand how the air comes out of the stock market slowly or what they will do about that.

Rogers said if the United States does not show Israel more clarity on where it draws "red lines" on Iran's nuclear program, then Israel might conduct a strike.

"If I were betting my house today, I would guess that they probably will do it if we don't have a change in more clear red lines from the United States," he said.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/rogers ... /id/451043

Over in the casino, there is money entering at the expense of the real economy
Spot on. This Hot push is scripted as John conveyed in this casino rodeo. Having a attitude for humor alludes me.
Print to = Nominal GDP and they know this will not happen. The market will moan later about oveshoot and animal spirits.
Simple deception for the live another day attitude to the so called order from induced chaos.

August 19th: So a hot money flush, or to say our melt up and the consumer credit is tapped out.

July 7th: Fed’s Five Year Forward Break-even inflation rate is around 2.48%. We need growth in aggregate demand to start seeing hot inflation.
I feel IMO the inflection point is here but we have been pushed into the ditch from poor policy actors as we trend in GD so the obvious ...

aedens wrote:Over in the casino, there is money entering at the expense of the real economy.
Spot on. This Hot push is scripted as John conveyed in this casino rodeo.

I read John's entry from 2 days ago after posting that and agree he captures it very well.

Thursday morning, when ADP reported 210,000 new jobs, above expectations, the market went up.

Friday morning, when BLS reported 96,000 new jobs, below expectations, the market went up.

That pretty much describes in a nutshell how the casino mentality works.

That pretty much describes in a nutshell how the casino mentality works.

http://mises.org/daily/5886/Withholding ... m-the-Khan

intrinsic values

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=488_1347115934 coming to a boil

There aren't that many people in the casino right now. It would be beneficial to see the casino drop and keep dropping, as some of the remaining money would actually be used to try to create a real product instead of hunting for a new casino to play with more risk. We'll have to see more parking lot suicides by CEO's before that'll happen though. These "investors" so hate even the idea of producing a real product that it's nearly the last thing they'd do before giving up and killing themselves.

Very nice article on jobs.

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content ... ion-growth

Right now it's a wonderful time to start a business producing something real, there are millions who'd take almost any job.

OLD1953 wrote:Right now it's a wonderful time to start a business producing something real, there are millions who'd take almost any job.

If Obama and Bernake had let the casino hit bottom in ~2010, by now, with costs down and the "crusty old bureaucracies" (as John calls them) out of business, new entrepreneurs would have a void to step into and could reinvigorate the economy.

In 2009 my sister decided to expand her product line. I told her not to, that the parasites would eat her alive. They almost did. She was buried with a cease and desist order and frivolous lawsuit, and bullshit regulation (CPSIA regulations crafted by Wal-Mart to put small competitors out of business).

An applicable quote about the lawyer who generated the frivolous lawsuit and his modus operandi:

D. Scott Hemingway, her storm-trooper corporate attorney and general all-around asshole, partner in the Dallas/Houston law firm of Hemingway & Hansen. m3 girl designs sends out intimidating and lie-filled cease and desist letters in an effort to control the bottle cap jewelry market instead of producing a superior and less expensive product. We consider D. Scott Hemingway an unethical, low-life attorney who cares nothing about the rights of legitimate sellers.

http://www.tabberone.com/Trademarks/Hal ... Girl.shtml

and the bullshit regulation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_P ... vement_Act

All of this Wikipedia article is relevant to how government and large corps conspire in the name of "do-gooder" subterfuges like "children's safety" to torture and dismember small US based manufacturers and resellers.