"There is a time element and a price element. The time element is spent, which argues for a peak here. However, the price element is not, which says (to me anyway) that there could be a delay in a final price burst if the market can find a reason.
As far as the time element, comparing to 2000 and 2007, on the S&P 500:
On January 3, 2000 there was a peak, a dip, then a final burst into March 24, 2000 and
On July 19, 2007 there was a peak, a dip, then a final burst into October 11, 2007.
The July 19, 2007 date could be interpreted as June 1, 2007 or so. Looking at the current situation, in any case, time has run out on the market compared to these previous topping formations."
"My prediction. No short term predictions are possible from here on out."
These statements were made a week ago. The chart illustrates some of that, with some areas of previous similarity to the current configuration noted. The question is whether the S&P can mount one last rally to or over the Bollinger Band. It already had by "this time" in terms of the various indicators in 2000 and 2007 yet, at the same time, price shows no signs of giving up.http://i49.tinypic.com/ion87r.gif