As far as the technical condition of the stock market, I reviewed extensively this weekend and can draw no firm conclusion.
There is a time element and a price element. The time element is spent, which argues for a peak here. However, the price element is not, which says (to me anyway) that there could be a delay in a final price burst if the market can find a reason.
As far as the time element, comparing to 2000 and 2007, on the S&P 500,
On January 3, 2000 there was a peak, a dip, then a final burst into March 24, 2000 and
On July 19, 2007 there was a peak, a dip, then a final burst into October 11, 2007.
The July 19, 2007 date could be interpreted as June 1 or so. Looking at the current situation, in any case, time has run out on the market compared to these previous topping formations.
However, in terms of price, while price in this case has been slower to move, if it has been delayed for some reason but the impetus is still there, then there would be upside targets the market may still reach.
I've spent probably 20 hours since the Friday close studying the current price configuration of the market and have no idea as to which outcome is more likely.
One of the better analysts makes the observation that the "commercials" are heavily hedging their holdings in the futures markets (as I had stated in opposition to Tyler's view) and normally in a rational market that would be good reason to follow along, but I don't think the next few weeks are going to see the market dominated by rationality. The safest stance is probably to stay away. The risk/reward probably favors the bears if they can withstand volatility and blow torching from the Fed.