aedens wrote:Growth rate time lag. It does not match there level of complexity.
H, how does this match your feedback loop?
It does not match the feds growth rate since logistics are limiting facts
in finite models.
http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/biology/7-01 ... growth-ii/
Her concept of the population feedback loop lag times matches my feedback loop:
But if you have a short lag, what you get is an actual overshoot of the carrying capacity in the near term because the feedback hasn't kicked in. But then, it will come back and it will level off at the carrying capacity. If you have a medium lag, you will often see something like this where you get a couple of oscillations in here. But it levels off at the same carrying capacity. And, a long lag, you can end up with behavior that ultimately ends up in the population crashing.
The above quote is almost halfway down on her transcript of the lecture.
There isn't any way to know if I am right but using her language and concepts my theory is: Bernanke has introduced a long lag time into the system response with the repeated QE programs. In my view, a short lag time would have been, say, the Fall 2008 rescue and to then allow the system to adjust. A medium lag was created with the first QE program that ended in 2010, and maybe the second that ended in 2011 but probably not. There may have been some severe bumps worse than the Great Depression if the lag time had stopped there. Now the system is in a long lag where I believe there is overshoot above the capacity of the economic system to adjust back to equilibrium. I believe this will result in an uncontrollable crash of the economic system and a new Dark Age. Along with that, there will probably be a minimum 30% reduction in world population which would make the Dark Age more severe than that following the collapse of Rome.
She talks about physical limits to carrying capacity and also the fact that carrying capacity has increased due to innovations. It's important that the integrity of the financial system be maintained in order to maintain carrying capacity as that can be the weak link. I believe Bernanke's actions (and that of the European Central Bank) have created a long time lag condition where once a crash occurs the integrity of the financial system will not be able to be restored quickly enough.
This model is probably better than the 2 models I discussed (organ failure and suspension bridge failure) because it introduces time dependency and overshoot. Though each model seems to have its own strengths in describing the situation. In all the cases we see that while the system in question may appear on the surface to be stablized, it is in fact being destabilized and subjected to the risk of catastrophic failure.